I will agree that had there been a Palestinian state of some sort arising out the the 1948 partition, butterflies would make changes in the area. I don't see how this would make the basic structure of the Arab states in the region (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Trucial States, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Egypt) significantly different. The "Israel threat"and "Palestinian issue" were straw men that the various governments used to varying extents to point the populace outward rather than have them sitting around wondering how badly their own governments were screwing them over. The reality is that Israel as a "regional superpower" was not a reality until the 1967 war (if then). Frankly Israel after the War of Independence was still economically and militarily weak, and a combination of Israeli "motivation" (never again) and severe structural issues with Arab militaries was what kept Israel intact. Israeli successes in 1956 need to be seen in the reality of basically a one front war and being fought in conjunction with the French and British.
Beyond the Israel/Palestine issue, local Arab governments used other distractors such as "colonialism" and "imperialism" (as the USA replaced the colonial powers as the boogeyman), or internal ethnoreligious divisions (Kurds, Druse, Christians, Sunni/Shi'a depending on the country). Prior to the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and the drawing of the modern borders, areas not under direct Ottoman control had been absolute monarchies/tribal based governance. Former Ottoman areas that became independent/organized continued this or were occupied by the UK/France and once the colonial powers left fell in to the general pattern. As monarchies were overthrown (Egypt, Iraq, Libya) they were replaced by strongmen and have subsequently suffered coups of various sorts.
Historically countries going from absolute monarchy or the equivalent to some sort of liberal democracy in one jump is pretty much unheard of. There is usually a transition period (short or long) and there are several conditions needed for this transition including a (relatively) educated population, a mass of illiterates is not a good foundation, and a cultural acceptance of the idea that democracy where 50.1% win does not mean they get to crap all over the 49.9%. When folks point out Germany going from Nazis to democracy, or democracy in the former Warsaw Pact they are comparing apples and oranges. Germany, and most of the WP countries had democracies prior to WWII, although in many cases much less than "liberal". Some of what is happening in Poland and Hungary shows the fragility of this.
IMHO as long as there is an Israel in the former mandate of Palestine, no matter what the boundaries, the elimination of Israel will continue to be a rallying cry to distract Arabs governed by strong men/absolutist monarchies. If the Arabs succeed in winning the 1948 war, and throwing most of the Jews out, saving perhaps some small ultra-orthodox communities (maybe), the details of borders and leaders may change but expecting that in 2019 any of the regional states would resemble Jeffersonian democracy in any aspect is a non-starter. Non-Jewish ethnoreligious minorities are still going to be marginalized at best, and corruption/baksheesh and kleptocracy will still be there. Given the horrendous misrule in Gaza and the West Bank by the current leaders, why should you expect better. The reality is that in spite of the limited resources and difficulties, fully acknowledged, the folks in these areas are much more miserable than they could/should be even if they still have the "drive the Israelis in to the sea" attitude.
Beyond the Israel/Palestine issue, local Arab governments used other distractors such as "colonialism" and "imperialism" (as the USA replaced the colonial powers as the boogeyman), or internal ethnoreligious divisions (Kurds, Druse, Christians, Sunni/Shi'a depending on the country). Prior to the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and the drawing of the modern borders, areas not under direct Ottoman control had been absolute monarchies/tribal based governance. Former Ottoman areas that became independent/organized continued this or were occupied by the UK/France and once the colonial powers left fell in to the general pattern. As monarchies were overthrown (Egypt, Iraq, Libya) they were replaced by strongmen and have subsequently suffered coups of various sorts.
Historically countries going from absolute monarchy or the equivalent to some sort of liberal democracy in one jump is pretty much unheard of. There is usually a transition period (short or long) and there are several conditions needed for this transition including a (relatively) educated population, a mass of illiterates is not a good foundation, and a cultural acceptance of the idea that democracy where 50.1% win does not mean they get to crap all over the 49.9%. When folks point out Germany going from Nazis to democracy, or democracy in the former Warsaw Pact they are comparing apples and oranges. Germany, and most of the WP countries had democracies prior to WWII, although in many cases much less than "liberal". Some of what is happening in Poland and Hungary shows the fragility of this.
IMHO as long as there is an Israel in the former mandate of Palestine, no matter what the boundaries, the elimination of Israel will continue to be a rallying cry to distract Arabs governed by strong men/absolutist monarchies. If the Arabs succeed in winning the 1948 war, and throwing most of the Jews out, saving perhaps some small ultra-orthodox communities (maybe), the details of borders and leaders may change but expecting that in 2019 any of the regional states would resemble Jeffersonian democracy in any aspect is a non-starter. Non-Jewish ethnoreligious minorities are still going to be marginalized at best, and corruption/baksheesh and kleptocracy will still be there. Given the horrendous misrule in Gaza and the West Bank by the current leaders, why should you expect better. The reality is that in spite of the limited resources and difficulties, fully acknowledged, the folks in these areas are much more miserable than they could/should be even if they still have the "drive the Israelis in to the sea" attitude.
