What would a non-Meiji Japan mean?

As true as this is, it leads me to stick with the Thailand model. You have in the Shogunate a military regime. The Japanese state will be every bit as aristocratic as in our timeline, but here the survival of the shogunate allows the state to develop to some extent as an ultranationalist might have it; The military is in charge, subordinate only to a figurehead emperor who is to be revered. The country will grow its own food, and traditional notions of hierarchy will largely persist and be reinforced.

The economy will be capitalistic, but the state will be weary of big business, and thus the potential for macroeconomic growth could be limited. This, coupled with the limit in available raw materials domestically will hinder prospects for economic growth. A poor urban class develops, and they become the crux of a limited industrial workforce. Japan thus becomes a manufacturer of goods to export, goods which most Japanese could never afford to buy.

IIRC there were several large Japanese trading companies (some of which I think evolved later into brands we know today)

Also, some of the daimyo encouraged industrialisation within their own domains

It would be very patchy though, I guess

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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