What would a Lukashenko-led Russia look like today?

[Mr_Fanboy]

I read this interesting passage in the Wikipedia article on the Union State...

The Commonwealth of Belarus and Russia was founded on 2 April 1996.[5] The basis of the union was strengthened on 2 April 1997, with the signing of the "Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia" at which time its name was changed to the Union of Belarus and Russia.[6] Several further agreements were signed on 25 December 1998, with the intention of providing greater political, economic and social integration.[6]

Nevertheless, the nature of the political entity remained vague. Under pressure from his own political opponents, who argued for a reunion of the two states, and from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who sought to tie his excessively weak economy to Russia's stronger one, then Russian President Boris Yeltsin initiated the creation of the Union in order to harmonize the political and economic differences between the two nations.[7] According to some observers, Lukashenko's intention was also to gain great power, becoming the president of a future Russia-Belarus federation after Yeltsin's demise due to his all-time low popularity. However, after the resignation of Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin was elected in 2000 to succeed him as president of Russia, thus forcing Lukashenko to cancel his plans and keep balance between the independence of Belarus and Putin's increasing pressure for further integration among the two countries into the Union State.[8][9]

So, for the sake of discussion, imagine a scenario where the last few years of the 1990's play out somewhat differently. Putin's rise is averted, and over the course of the early 2000's, Russia and Belarus integrate to the point where the latter is essentially absorbed into the former, with Lukashenko as the leader of this expanded Russian Federation. How does he rule Russia differently than Putin has, both with respect to domestic issues and in his interaction with the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world?

 

[fasquardon]

This is an interesting one. Belarus has done pretty well since 1991, especially compared to other post-Soviet states. I'm not familiar enough with the how and the why of Lukashenko's politics and the Belarusian context to say if he could turn Russia into a giant Belarus (which would be a vast improvement over where Russia is in OTL). So while this is a neat question, I just don't know enough to answer it.

fasquardon

 

[Father Maryland]

This is an interesting one. Belarus has done pretty well since 1991, especially compared to other post-Soviet states. I'm not familiar enough with the how and the why of Lukashenko's politics and the Belarusian context to say if he could turn Russia into a giant Belarus (which would be a vast improvement over where Russia is in OTL). So while this is a neat question, I just don't know enough to answer it.

fasquardon

Part of Belarus's better economic conditions are largely the result of extensive Russian subsidies. The Russians at least under Putin have continually sent large amounts of petroleum either at cost or free and at levels that were significantly above their own needs. The Belarussians then refined or otherwise reexported the surplus to Western Europe and used the proceeds to maintain a more extensive social safety net then other post soviet states and subsidize some of the larger old style firms.

So extending Belarus's relative success to Russia isn't really possible in that manner.

 

[Nathan Bernacki]

Well, first off, Belarus is often described as Europe's last dictatorship, so I think Lukashenko would be more overt in his dictatorial behaviour than Putin is. Also, Belarus is the only country (do Transnistria and South Ossetia count?) that I know of that still has a intelligence agency calling itself the KGB, though in Belarusian, it's called the KDB. So, I don't think Lukashenko would bother upholding the window-dressing that Yeltsin put over the Russian Federation to distance itself from the Soviet Union. In OTL 1991, the KGB was transformed first into the Federal Counterintelligence Service (FSK) and then in 1995 into the Federal Security Service (FSB), but you can clearly tell that the FSB still holds some fondness for it's past. It even has a modified KGB logo as it's emblem. In our timeline 1991, the KGB's foreign intelligence operations were transferred to the Foreign Intelligence Service. I expect this organization to be dissolved and the KGB be reinvested with total carte blanche, in regards to domestic and foreign operations.

KGB logo

FSB logo

As a bonus, here's the KGB logo for Belarus