What would a independent East Turkestan and Tibet look like?

Xinjiang is a region of the People's Republic of China, bordering Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. It mostly consists of a Turkic minority called the Uyghurs, who are majority Muslim.

During the early 20th Century, while China was at war with itself, Xinjiang was controlled by warlords, most prominently, Sheng Shicai, with the support of the Soviet Union. In 1949, it was annexed into the nascent People's Republic of China and officially, carries the designation 'autonomous region' though the central government maintains a stranglehold over Xinjiang, as with the Tibetan Autonomous Region.

But what if China never got it's act together and remained a collection of feuding warlord cliques, leaving East Turkestan (as independence activists have called the region) and Tibet to remain independent of any central Chinese government? What would the two regions look like as independent countries?
 
East Turkestan would remain under Soviet influence and even a communist state depending on who is in charge while Tibet would remain a theocratic state under Indian influence
 
Tibet could become a larger version of Bhutan, possibly with Indian military bases if China refuses to recognize Tibetan independence (a likely possibility). Tibet's biggest source of wealth is likely its geography, an independent Tibet has a massive hydropower potential. However, this could create massive tensions between who ever Tibet's great power patron(s) is and downstream states (China, mainland Southeast Asia).

Noscoper's prognosis on Xinjiang sounds reasonable, an independent Xinjiang would almost certainly have to be a Soviet client state, and would likely function as a de facto SSR, similar to Mongolia's economic dependence on the USSR and close relations with Moscow. Xinjiang's ethnic minorities would raise an interesting question, there is a large Kazakh population in the North of the province. The Soviet may annex this to the Kazakh SSR, engage in population transfers, or leave the community in question alone with cultural autonomy in East Turkestan.
 
Tibet could become a larger version of Bhutan, possibly with Indian military bases

I doubt it would have Indian military bases - that would compromise Indian neutrality by having military bases over such a vast territory, and India was pragmatically aligned to the USSR, a country which would want control of Tibet especially after the Sino-Soviet split. That would also distract India from the "real" problem - Pakistan. Having India be aligned with Tibet is one thing, but military bases is doubtful.
 
I doubt it would have Indian military bases - that would compromise Indian neutrality by having military bases over such a vast territory, and India was pragmatically aligned to the USSR, a country which would want control of Tibet especially after the Sino-Soviet split. That would also distract India from the "real" problem - Pakistan. Having India be aligned with Tibet is one thing, but military bases is doubtful.
Pakistan's biggest OTL ally is China. If India can get a independent, pro-Indian Tibet it will keep Pakistan and China from having a common border to surround India, as they do now.

I don't think the author specified that the Chinese government is communist or not. A nationalist government would make Cold War diplomacy and Asia's alliance system very different, but I'd guess that almost any Chinese regime without Tibet and/or Xinjiang would be trying to get them back, and mad at whoever controls them.
 
If Tibet and Xinjiang became independent in the 20th century, their relationship with China will be either like Mongolia (China no longer claims nor cares about it), or Taiwan (China wants to take it back, but begrudgingly accepts its de facto sovereignty). If Tibet and Xinjiang are to be permanently separated from China, they would need powerful allies (like India or the USSR respectively, as others have suggested).
 
I don't think the author specified that the Chinese government is communist or not. A nationalist government would make Cold War diplomacy and Asia's alliance system very different, but I'd guess that almost any Chinese regime without Tibet and/or Xinjiang would be trying to get them back, and mad at whoever controls them.
Op has China as a collection of feuding warlord cliques besides any United China will steamroll Tibet like in Otl
 
The easiest way for Tibet to become independent, I think, would be for Britain to establish a protectorate over it after the Younghusband expedition to Lhasa. After 1947, it falls under Indian influence like Bhutan, and China begrudgingly accepts the situation. If this Tibet has the approximate borders of OTL TAR, then it would have a very small ethnic Chinese population, but if it expands east, then it will have a large Chinese minority, which would cause problematic relations with China. I think any Chinese leadership would reluctantly part with territories with few Chinese, like OTL Mongolia, but areas with large Chinese populations might be an issue.

OTL, Stalin could have easily established a puppet in East Turkestan in the 1930s. Mao or Chiang or whoever ends up ruling China might want it back, but would be in no position to make demands. OTL the ethnic Chinese population in Xinjiang was very small until the late twentieth century, but it would still be large enough to potentially cause issues.
 
As independent countries, both countries are landlocked and suffer economic difficulties. Tibet has to give up something to obtain Indian capital and resources. Xinjiang will be a client state of USSR.

Both countries will be ranked near bottom in terms of GDP per capital.
 
As independent countries, both countries are landlocked and suffer economic difficulties. Tibet has to give up something to obtain Indian capital and resources. Xinjiang will be a client state of USSR.

Both countries will be ranked near bottom in terms of GDP per capital.
You sure? I mean, the bottom is really bad and central asia in general isnt great but not that bad.
 
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