AussieHawker
Banned
So assuming Gore wins in 2000 who wins the GOP primary in 2004 and does he/she win the general election?
I mean it really depends on Gore's term.
Gore could head off 9/11 and nothing else really flares up in terms of foreign policy. So the GOP candidates would tend towards and shift in favour of domestic policy standings. So successful governors or domestic focused legislators. Likely just a campaign of social issues, scaremongering about whatever Gore ended up doing in his term, and promising to turn Gore's surplus into tax cuts.
Gore could still have 9/11 happen under his watch. I doubt he would get the same impact as Bush thought. The right wing media would accuse him of being asleep on the job, and the mainstream media would mindlessly parrot it. So even if Gore is quite successful in the aftermath in hunting down the perpetrators and their allies, that could be seen as a weak spot, or at least something the Republicans need to balance against. Like picking Kerry because he voted yes to war. So the Republicans run a Hawk claiming he is fucking it up and America needs a Republican. That could be a dangerous scenerio if they not only want to go after Iraq, but also other Republican bugbears like Iran and North Korea. That could create a real Carter, considering the issues awaiting in that term. Katrina, the financial crisis and potential wars.
As for winning, I think the odds are against him no matter the scenerio. The 12 year itch will be tough to overcome. The last time a party had such dominance was the New Deal with the Republicans utterly wrecked and the Democrats holding a mega coalition.
But the Republicans could still botch it, and make a bad choice. Like America might want a 'tough guy' President but could still balk at multiple potential wars. Or just a terrible candidate generally.