What Would A Cuban War Look Like?

Wolfpaw

Banned
Let's say that, after the failure of the Bay of Pigs, Kennedy decides to invade Cuba sometime in 1962 before the missiles get moved in (let's say January or February).

Now before RogueBeaver has a stroke, let's make one thing clear; I don't think this could have happened. Period. It's almost ASB in its implausibility. But let's just have fun with this thought-excercise, shall we?

Let's say that Operation Northwoods is successful; say the CIA to pull off a false-flag attack on American soil/civilians and manages to cover their tracks well enough to get Cuba blamed for it (yeah, I know, it's the CIA in the '60s and their about as subtle as a fireworks display, but let's keep playing). Kennedy decides to invade.

I think that there'd be a lot of aerial bombardment (obviously; LeMay planned for it, I believe) followed by an invasion of Marines. One major force landing at Matanzas and fighting towards Havana, one fighting up from Guanatnamo.

Matanzas and Santiago probably fall pretty quick, though both suffer from grisly urban combat, especially Santiago. Nonetheless, the Americans quickly push on and capture Havana. Perhaps the Cubans are able to mount decent defenses of Camaguey and/or Cienfuegos before being totally overrun by the Americans.

Result? Really, really nasty guerilla warfare throughout the island, both by fidelistas and non-fidelistas alike. Americans probably resort to Vietnam-esque bombing/chemical tactics to clear jungles of rebels and occasionally send out marines to mop them up. Anyways, quick, short war, long, bloody, nasty occupation that the rest of the world howls at.

That's what I think could happen, at least, though I don't pretend to be a military expert.

So what do you guys think (especially you, military buffs)? How would an invasion of Cuba go? How many men, planes, tanks, helicopters, etc.?

Political junkies, what would the ramifications be, both at home, in Cuba, and abroad? How would this affect American actions in Vietnam?

Again, I've got a few more ideas of my own, but I'd like to hear from all of you. So to recap: US invasion of Cuba in early 1962. What happens?
 
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Cuba is the domain of the two Bobs: Robert Kennedy is the Administration's point man on Latin America, in addition to his role as DPOTUS. The man who'll run Cuba is Roberto San Roman, leftmost in this picture. IOTL they were good friends and political allies. This is a picture of the Cuban Revolutionary Council, with their COO in the middle.

bay-pigs-10.gif
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Huh. I'd thought the plan was to make José Miró Cardona in president.

(BTW, I've never heard of Roberto San Román. Is he at all related to José Alfredo Pérez "Pepe" San Román?)
 
A power-sharing arrangement is most likely. When RFK is brokering the negotiations, no one is going to leave that room without a compromise. ;)
 
I think it'd be pretty ugly, but I also think it'd end up kind of like Iraq, rather than Vietnam. Without a way for the Soviet Union to supply the communists, they can't fight effectively against the United States. And with the communists only recently having come to power, there's still a lot of democratically-minded folks in the country. If you can get an effective non-communist government in place despite the fighting, it'll work out after an unpleasant handful of years.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I think it'd be pretty ugly, but I also think it'd end up kind of like Iraq, rather than Vietnam.
I think that's a fair assessment in the long run. I meant more that the invasion itself will be more along the lines of Vietnam-grade intensity.

Without a way for the Soviet Union to supply the communists, they can't fight effectively against the United States.
I'd say yes and no on this one. Yes because, you're right, the Soviets are going to have a tough time supplying the Cubans once the Americans invade/set up a naval perimeter.

No because between '59 and '62, the USSR was sending boatloads (literally) of arms and supplies to Cuba, especially after the Bay of Pigs. Partially due to Castro's official coming around to communism (he had pretty solid socialist/Marxist beliefs before, he just played them down so as not to scare Americans and Cuban anti-communists), partially because both the USSR and Cuba expected America to invade at some point. Besides, most Cubans owned guns, Castro's guerillas fought (and did quite well) with a hodgepodge of old and often antiquated arms, and it's not all that hard to make a bomb, not to mention the vast array of communication networks the guerillas kept up during and after the Revolution. Trust me, a Cuban insurgency will make an Iraq one look pretty unsophisticated by comparison.

And with the communists only recently having come to power, there's still a lot of democratically-minded folks in the country. If you can get an effective non-communist government in place despite the fighting, it'll work out after an unpleasant handful of years.
Normally I'd agree, but this is post Bay of Pigs. Even anti-communists Cubans began supporting Castro after the Bay of Pigs and Castro really built up the nationalist aspect of his regime. Communism, as you say, couldn't ensure the majority of the population's support, but nationalism sure as hell could (and did).

I frankly take any idea of an "effective" (i.e. non-corrupt) Cuban government with a grain of salt. If you read about pre-Revolutionary Cuba and about the leaders of the anti-Castro movement, you'll see how endemic courruption was to...everything.

I agree that it will work out after an unpleasant handful of years, but I don't necessarily think that ill will work out in favor of the United States or whatever puppet regime it props up in Havana.
 
Why are you avoiding the (to me) obvious POD of having Kennedy support the Bay of Pigs invasion? With US troops?
Or the other (to me) obvious POD of having Kennedy bomb the missle sites before completion and then invade?
 
Wolfpaw, the Soviet Union did indeed send boatloads of equipment and supplies to Cuba during that period, but the buildup of heavy military supplies -- tanks, artillery, SAMs, etc. -- didn't begin until summer 1962, after the decision was made to site nuclear weapons there. Before that time, it was primarily (though not wholly) lighter weapons and humanitarian aid such as food, medical supplies, and indirect military equipment.

In addition, the stockpiles established before this period wouldn't be enough to sustain a period of prolonged fighting, especially ground warfare. In One Minute to Midnight, which I used in developing the Cuban Missile War TL, Dobbs mentions that one of Castro's fears was a shortage of antiaircraft ammunition. I presume (though haven't researched it) that similar shortages existed in ammunition for other weapons, and likely would be even more so given several months fewer preparation.

ITTL, I think there's enough materiel in country for a pretty coherent guerrilla campaign, but the Cubans are really going to be pushed back once the invasion force and pro-US Cuban security force starts targeting arms caches and the like.

Adding to their difficulty is the geographical element. Unlike in Iraq or Vietnam, where insurgents could use neighboring countries as safe havens, Cuban insurgents can't easily leave the island if it is interdicted by the U.S. Navy. Even the enormously less effective Cuban Navy was nearly able to sink the Granma when Castro returned to the island. I presume the U.S. Navy would be able to to a far better job.

In regards to popular support, I have to disagree. Even as late as the missile crisis, the CIA was able to find local help for its infiltration and bombing campaign. As mentioned in One Minute to Midnight, the attacks on Cuban mining installations failed not out of any effort by Cubans based in America or those on the island itself, but because of mere chance and circumstance. I agree that the Bay of Pigs incident was a big boon for Castro, and any American invasion would be even more so, but ITTL, there's one small benefit for the U.S. -- there isn't enough time for Castro to use those things as he did OTL, nor is there time to ease out the pre-communist elements in the country.

I don't think the U.S. government will be smart enough initially to wholly get rid of the former Batista folks, but they will ease them out of the picture in favor of some more "appetizing" types once the U.S. takes a few political and military blows from that poor decision.
 
Well at that time the whole nation was still behind the Communist Regime.The military in Cuba would be resisted not just by the military of Cuba but by the people as well.Although in the event of straight up fire fights the U.S Military would win every time...
 
Insurgencies do not need the amount of supplies and ammunition that regular armies do.

The core of an insurgency have often been soldiers in shattered or even untouched, but immobile or irrelevant units taking to the hills, bringing with them their military training and whatever supplies and weapons they can carry.

This was the case in Yugoslavia, where the insurgency fought for more than three years on such supplies and the occasional captured weapon and ammunition.

Also, considering the experience of AK in Poland and various instances in Vietnam, conscript armies tend to have a large percentage of soldiers who "lose" their weapons and ammunition in "accidents" or look the other way when a lot of ammunition in storage becomes "corroded" for a nigth with a girl, a bottle of rum or vodka, money or other bribes. Said weapons and ammunition usually ends up with the insurgency rather quickly.

The US would probably, for political reasons, arm, train and equip a local militia/security force/army and want it to fight against the insurgency. Conscripts of said force could very well even be sympathetic with the insurgents - it is very common - and be even more prone to "accidents", "losses" or "corrosion" in their supply stores.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I'm going to have to find the source so I can cite my numbers and make them tighter, but I remember seeing a book that talked about the US sending in something like eight or nine thousand sorties on the first day from carriers and naval bases in Florida, Alabama, and Louisiana.
 
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