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You are a European political analysist, in a South American country on the 1st June 1940. You have no access to any top secret information of any note. You do however know Europe very well and you have kept up to date with the events in Europe. You are now asked to make an assessment of what is likely to happen in Europe over the remainder of the year. On the 7th of June, you are to make a report.

You decide to consider several possibilities, however, one that worries you is Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. What will happen between USSR and Germany over the rest of the year?

You note down the following points about the alliance

Pros

Hitler stated repeatably that it was a mistake for German to get involved in a war on two fronts in WW1 and that he certainly would not make that mistake.

Germany is at war with the UK and the UK s making a good fight so the German military is fully extended now.

Stalin is supplying Hitler with raw materials, any long-term conflict with the USSR would cut off these materials including food and oil, two items German really needs.

The German military does not want to extend the war as based on WW1 experience any such conflict will be a long blood affair.

Germany has a secure border with USSR now.

If Germany wanted to expand there are places like Sweden and Switzerland in Europe and Africa to expand too which would be easier than the USSR.

The two sides seem to be very friendly. If you listen to the radio and the newspapers they are supporting each other.

A major German ally, Japan has recently made a major treaty with the USSR

The German people do not want further wars.

Cons

The USSR military is currently considered weak but disturbingly for Hitler, the USSR military is growing fast.

Hitler considers the USSR to be an enemy.

No one trusts Stalin.

The USSR could switch to the UK side

If the Germans blitzkrieg works it could be done in a short war.

Update: in my Pros, I should add that it is getting late in the campaign season.
Germany is just coming out of a battle in Yugoslavia and Greece and needs time to recover.


{Reader: Please add to these points}

What do you say in your report on the 7th of June?
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