What will happen from June 1941

The state of the USSR and German alliance till 1942

  • Peace

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Cold war

    Votes: 8 38.1%
  • A limited border conflict

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • A major conflict

    Votes: 10 47.6%

  • Total voters
    21
You are a European political analysist, in a South American country on the 1st June 1940. You have no access to any top secret information of any note. You do however know Europe very well and you have kept up to date with the events in Europe. You are now asked to make an assessment of what is likely to happen in Europe over the remainder of the year. On the 7th of June, you are to make a report.

You decide to consider several possibilities, however, one that worries you is Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. What will happen between USSR and Germany over the rest of the year?

You note down the following points about the alliance

Pros

Hitler stated repeatably that it was a mistake for German to get involved in a war on two fronts in WW1 and that he certainly would not make that mistake.

Germany is at war with the UK and the UK s making a good fight so the German military is fully extended now.

Stalin is supplying Hitler with raw materials, any long-term conflict with the USSR would cut off these materials including food and oil, two items German really needs.

The German military does not want to extend the war as based on WW1 experience any such conflict will be a long blood affair.

Germany has a secure border with USSR now.

If Germany wanted to expand there are places like Sweden and Switzerland in Europe and Africa to expand too which would be easier than the USSR.

The two sides seem to be very friendly. If you listen to the radio and the newspapers they are supporting each other.

A major German ally, Japan has recently made a major treaty with the USSR

The German people do not want further wars.

Cons

The USSR military is currently considered weak but disturbingly for Hitler, the USSR military is growing fast.

Hitler considers the USSR to be an enemy.

No one trusts Stalin.

The USSR could switch to the UK side

If the Germans blitzkrieg works it could be done in a short war.

Update: in my Pros, I should add that it is getting late in the campaign season.
Germany is just coming out of a battle in Yugoslavia and Greece and needs time to recover.


{Reader: Please add to these points}

What do you say in your report on the 7th of June?
 
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If I remember right late in May 1941 the world's news media began trumpeting the buildup of German forces on the eastern front. I think Shirer mentioned this in his old tome. I presume the South American guy would've heard about it. He probably also heard about lebensraum in Mein Kampf.
 
If I remember right late in May 1941 the world's news media began trumpeting the buildup of German forces on the eastern front. I think Shirer mentioned this in his old tome. I presume the South American guy would've heard about it..

The mass media was certainly was not trumpeting the buildup of German forces in Russia much of the world attention was in Yugoslavia and Greece


He probably also heard about lebensraum in Mein Kampf.

Which maybe the conquest of Poland might appease Hitler. As it was we know Hitler really only made the decision to attack Russia in Nov 1940 in spring of 1941 long after Mein Kampf.
 
If I remember right late in May 1941 the world's news media began trumpeting the buildup of German forces on the eastern front. I think Shirer mentioned this in his old tome. I presume the South American guy would've heard about it. He probably also heard about lebensraum in Mein Kampf.

The mass media was certainly was not trumpeting the buildup of German forces in Russia much of the world attention was in Yugoslavia and Greece

....

It had been publicized by the Brits. They had become aware of the possibility months earlier, & been monitoring the German build up in the east. In their effort to warn the USSR & break the German Soviet alignment they had put some information in the news papers. Not wanting to compromise their sources they tried to be careful about details. When the Axis attacked Yugoslavia it was spun by the British government as a threat to all nation's in the east, including the USSR.

The Balkans campaign did occupy the headlines, but there was a lot of speculation on how the war might spread. The Brits tried to cultivate that. If our fictional character here is reading a wide selection of newspapers he would be exposed to the back page news, including the 'discussion' on the USSR.

The was some preparation in German language news for the war against the USSR. I'm not familiar with this product of Gobbels office so I can't say how definitive it was.
 
Two leaders notorious for being unreliable and untrustworthy are in an alliance of convenience. I think a reasonably astute observer free from bias can conclude that a war will inevitably breakout albeit without being sure which party will stab the other in back. Our observer might conclude that Hitler is more likely to betray Stalin simply because he would have the opportunity to do so earlier. In 1940 world opinion of the Soviet Union's military abilities was at a low point following the Winter War debacle and thus it would likely take a few years for the Red Army to be fully ready for a war.

The UK is alone and has no hope of invading the Continent any time soon. US neutrality is expected to last at this point thanks to the actions of Congress and strong isolationist sentiment within public opinion. In June 1940 an observer can see that the UK, while not going to capitulate, is in no position to resist Nazi domination of Europe and can only intervene in other theaters like North Africa and the Balkans. So it isn't inconceivable that Hitler might try to smash the Soviet Union as quickly as possible.
 
You are a European political analysist, in a South American country on the 1st June 1940. You have no access to any top secret information of any note. You do however know Europe very well and you have kept up to date with the events in Europe. You are now asked to make an assessment of what is likely to happen in Europe over the remainder of the year. On the 7th of June, you are to make a report.

That report will almost certainly be completely wrong in major respects. Here's why I think so... In 1942, the Army officer who had been US Military Attaché in Romania arrived back in the US. He was debriefed about the situation in Europe, which presumably he knew very well, by the top planners of the US Army, including Eisenhower. His report was ludicrously mistaken. Among other things, he believed that Germany had sufficient planes and airborne troops in reserve for a successful invasion of Britain.

As of 1 June 1940, events are happening very rapidly in Europe, events which were highly surprising. France is collapsing, but it is not known
  • Whether the French government will capitulate or try to fight on from its colonies
  • Whether Italy will enter the war
  • Whether Spain will join the Axis
  • Whether Britain will fight on or make terms with Germany
  • Whether Britain can hold out against Germany
Any outside observer trying to answer those questions at the time would be very lucky to get them right. Hardly anyone did.
 
It had been publicized by the Brits. They had become aware of the possibility months earlier, & been monitoring the German build up in the east. In their effort to warn the USSR & break the German Soviet alignment they had put some information in the news papers.

The British also told the Russians officially too.

The problem our analysist would face is that after the evidence came out of the Britain disinformation campaign in WW1, the British were not believed.
 
The British also told the Russians officially too.

The problem our analysist would face is that after the evidence came out of the Britain disinformation campaign in WW1, the British were not believed.

There was a healthy skepticism, and others had a uncritical dislike, but the same could be said for nazi Germany. With its blind unthinking adherents and critics. The information was out there & our hypothetical analyst should take a critical look at all of it.
 
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