The problem, as I see it, is this:
With Russia engaged in civil war, and therefore not available to do France's heavy lifting, France's leaders will do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that might antagonize Germany. And if offense is accidentally given, will backtrack to whatever extent is necessary to repair the breach. Poincare was nobody's fool.
Now, it's possible that Germany might pick a fight with France nonetheless, but why, especially as it risks war with Britain? Germany's motivation was not an absolute lust to put all Western Europe under her jackbooted heel; rather it was fear of a strong, hostile, encircling alliance. ITTL, if Germany wants to take advantage of the situation in order to free herself from such a threat being reestablished, it seems most likely that she will involve herself in the East, helping Poland and the Baltic regions throw off the Russian yoke and become "independent" buffer states. Something that Britain wouldn't be terribly sad to see happen, given the loathing many Liberals (and most of Labour) had for the Tsar's regime, and given how worried Britain remained over Russian intentions towards the Mideast and India.
I'm sorry, I hate to point out implausibilities in folks' ideas, but I think this is too big to ignore. Perhaps it can be gotten around by the right POD and prevailing circumstances.
I think you're right on all points. I made a similar argument over in @WarlordGhandi's timeline thread just now.
Wilhelm *might* be tempted by the opportunity to settle accounts with France. But he's got one hell of a fluid situation on his eastern flank now, with the opportunity to gather all sorts of fruits at low price - new independent states which will be drawn into Germany's economic and diplomatic orbit. The chance to secure a cordon sanitaire against Russia (however it ends up being governed). That will absorb a great deal of Berlin's energies for the time being.
France under Rouvier was, and will be, desperate to avoid any war with Germany that it must fight all by itself. British intervention is still unlikely, at best, and would contribute very minor land forces, at best - no substitute for having the Russian Steamroller to divert a major part of the Heer.