What was the final moment that the CSA could've won the Civil War?

At which point did it become impossible for the Confederacy to win the ACW? Maybe the taking of Mobile? Earlier? Somehow later? The Confederacy never had a great chance of victory, but there has to have been a specific point in the ACW when it became impossible for them.
 
I would say that Early's inability to quickly defeat Lew Wallace at Monocracy was it, in 1864. Lew Wallace was the last thing between him and Washington. At this point Washington, in spite of probably being the most heavily fortified place on Earth at the time, had practically no troops garrisoning it. If Early could quickly beat Lew Wallace, he could bag the city pretty easily. However, Lew Wallace (outnumbered almost 3-1) put up a good fight, and in spite of their defeat they delayed Early an entire day. They bought Grant enough time to rush the entire VI Corps to the Capital, staving off Early. If Early had been quicker and taken Washington, it would have been a massive blow for the Union. Would it necessarily have followed that the Rebels would have won the whole thing as a result? Hard to say, but it's the last time I can see a real chance of a truly decisive Rebel victory. At the very least, it would have given the Copperheads a lot more credibility going into the election.
 
I would say that last chance they had to put things on a winning path was in the Maryland campaign, unless you play around with the leadership of the Army of Tennessee. The Union victories in the West were really what sealed it in the election of 1864, so if that situation was reversed, and the Confederates were winning in the West, I can see a plausible scenario ending in Lincoln's defeat in 1864.

It's on the verge of ASB, but if say, Thomas had been killed during Chickamauga, that might have made things go bad enough in the West that Lincoln loses in 1864. But like I say, that's verging on ASB.
 
Last chance (not a good one, but a chance) was not loosing the Atlanta campaign or at least lasting til after the 1864 election.

Key to that was not having Joe Johnston replaced with John Bell Hood.
 
Last chance was the Atlanta campaign. Lincoln not winning a second term certainly doesn't mean that the South will win but at least its a chance.
 

EMTSATX

Banned
When they opened fire on Fort Sumpter.

Same then, you ever read Shelby Foote? The great Southern War historian? Guy who is buried next to N.B. Forrest? He said the South lost and had no chance of winning because the North fought the war with one hand tied behind it's back. That the North could have raised and equipped army after army. The North lost 5% if it's white population the South 18%!

I suppose in fairness to your question, the moment they lost any chance of losing reelection. Even then he would have been in office until March of 1865. Even McClellan finishes it. Lincoln was never going to quit.
 
Probably outside of Atlanta. If they would have held off the Union, even moreso if they defeated them in the field, it would have allowed the Democrats to take power in the North. Then they would have been able to secure a negotiated peace.
 
When they opened fire on Fort Sumpter.

Same then, you ever read Shelby Foote? The great Southern War historian? Guy who is buried next to N.B. Forrest? He said the South lost and had no chance of winning because the North fought the war with one hand tied behind it's back. That the North could have raised and equipped army after army. The North lost 5% if it's white population the South 18%!

I suppose in fairness to your question, the moment they lost any chance of losing reelection. Even then he would have been in office until March of 1865. Even McClellan finishes it. Lincoln was never going to quit.
Eh, I'd be careful there. Shelby Foote was a great writer and story teller, but I would not say he was that great of a historian. The reality is that the South had every chance to win if they had held up Sherman before Atlanta or if Early had taken Washington.
 

EMTSATX

Banned
Sherman yes, I agree. If Atlanta had not been Lincoln's Christmas gift then you have a problem. But Lincoln was going no where before March of 65. How was the South doing at that point? You Think Sherman was going to sit outside Atlanta forever? Or Lee could hold Petersburg? What changes by March of 1865? Lincoln was NEVER going to quit, ever.

Early had as about the chance of taking DC as Hitler does London. Not going to happen, ever. At best Early's raid causes a Corps or two to reboard and sail North. But, Lee's mean old man was taking nothing.

I used Foote because I thought he would be someone that Same the on would respect. But Take Bruce Canton or 100 others, take the statistical data and interpret yourself. Take the politics of the time the US continued to act as a nation, had they fully committed to the war, suspending the homestead act, abandoning the railroads not fighting Indians etc... Raising more armies and equipping them what happens?
 

Genghis

Banned
According to this board, Never.
It makes them uncomfortable thinking about the Effect of CSA victory on the world and history.
and so it clouds their jugment, you can see the same things with nazis.
True historician must however see facts above morals.
 
According to this board, Never.
It makes them uncomfortable thinking about the Effect of CSA victory on the world and history.
and so it clouds their jugment, you can see the same things with nazis.
True historician must however see facts above morals.

Not really. A CSA victory is one of the GIGANTIC clichés of alternate history. It goes beyond cliché, it was a regular go to.

It's also massively improbable, simply considering the differential in resources. This is unpleasant to hear, but typically, any fight where one side has a three to one weight advantage over the other side.... the big guy wins, 99.9% of the time.

And yes, its true that the Confederacy was a pretty morally repugnant. That makes it harder to sing Dixie.

But the reality is simply the reality. The Confederacy can't win, unless it is impossibly lucky, and the north is impossibly incompetent.
 
Eh, I'd be careful there. Shelby Foote was a great writer and story teller, but I would not say he was that great of a historian. The reality is that the South had every chance to win if they had held up Sherman before Atlanta or if Early had taken Washington.

I'm pretty skeptical of that notion.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It won't surprise people that, IMHO, it was the moment that Jefferson Davis decided to replace Joseph Johnston with John Bell Hood.
 
It won't surprise people that, IMHO, it was the moment that Jefferson Davis decided to replace Joseph Johnston with John Bell Hood.
Agreed. Johnson had made some mistakes over the course of the campaign, but Hood used up the army in (mostly) futile attacks that allowed Sherman to ultimately take the city.
 
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