What was the best fate for the ottomans

Chimera0205

Banned
Say the Central Powers win WW1. Assuming they do everything right What is the best fate for the ottomans without going ASB
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Read my Timeline. I did an accidental Ottoman wank. Decisive battle that ended the war was the Ottoman small craft navy and air force closing the Red Sea to merchant shipping combine with series of land battles defending Mecca and Medina from British troops. So Ottomans are defenders of the faith.
 
Allah, why does everybody always focus on giving the Ottomans a terrible case of Dutch Disease as the cute to their ills? I'd say the best case scenario would be one that sees the RCW bleed into a general anarchy rather that having a consolidated Bolshevik movement, allowing them to pick up some modest gains in the Caucasus. Piggyback off rail development from the Berlin to Baghdad (Now likely to Basra) to integrate East Anatolia and the Mosul area more tightly into the Ottoman economy and society. Encourage settlement/denomadization of the Kurds and push assimilation gently: probably by injecting Turkish migrants via distribution of formerly Armenian and Assyrian land (cleared by... well... you know what was going on). Industrialization will start to pick up at some point.
 
Manage keep ethnic and religious tensions down and keep most of its areas (probably is doomed lost Hejaz). Later would become one of most notable oil production nations and real constitutional monarchy with relatively good human rights. Not perfect but not so shitty as in many OTL Middle Eastern nations. Surviving OE would be stabilising power in ME with Iran.
 
Well, the Ottoman Empire had some very serious problems. Their economic elite was very divided (large peasants vs. industrial capitalists, large peasants against each other, and capitalist against capitalist). There was some state intervention to mediate there and provide necessities to the population (more or less successfull). The Tapu system is a good example of that. Also the Ottoman Empire has massive ethnic divisions, an uneducated population (not entirely of course), no real industrial base to count on (except for the major cities). I dont know much about ottoman labour morale at the time, but supposing that they had many unhappy ethnic minorities and the fact that the government was generally quite unpopular, I think it was not very high. So summing the above up, a Japan style rapid state led industrialisation is impossible.

That being said there are multiple things we can do for the ottomans. If the industrial capitalists get an edge (in power, influence and importance to the national economy) you can have a slow industrialisation (supposing the ottoman empire don't fall prey to foreign neo-colonialism. They have to develope an own strong capitalist class to avoid foreign value extraction from their country. Exactly this is the problem with foreign investment. It can lead to foreign corporation dominating ottoman markets, therefore forcing the ottoman government to extract value with little to no taxes, hurting the national economy badly). On the other hand, there could be a communist revolution, and state led industrialization alá Russia or China, which (eventually) benefits the population greatly. However there would be conflicts with the economic elite, which could lead to much trouble (like 1932/1933 in Russia, with massive price rising, organized banditry and destruction of harvest by the large peasants).

In the end, massive social and pollitical reforms are needed, and the are needed soon. Repressentation of etnoc minorities (maybe even autonomy). More elements of capitalist democracy implemented, would also help domestic stability. Mass state led education campaigns would help to raise workers productivity, aswell as more social securities and maybe basic medical care. Basic labour rights would be beneficial to the national economy in the long term, too. And then its either become a neo-colonialist power yourself, or prevent foreign neo-colonialism (in a CP victory scenario, that may be Germany).

After this TLs Great War, the Ottoman Empire, though standing on the side of the victors, is badly weakened. Social, pollitical and ethnic unrest shake the sick man of europe, and its leadership realizes that reforms are needed now. Ethnic minorities gain representation and some autonomy, while basic social reforms are enacted. Pollitically the Empire liberalizes, too, becoming a constitutional monarchy, like the German Empire. The state tries its best to promote industry, eventually breaking the resistance of the agrarianists and initiating slow industrialisation. Influx of foreign capital is strictly controlled, while the Empire actively engages in capital export, itself. Proposing that everything goes well, after a few decades of (mostly minor) imperialist wars and domestic developement, by 1950 the Ottoman Empire is stable and has and is roughly as developed as OTL Russia in 1950, and at the very least, a major regional power.

Now it is highly interesting how this TL would develope in detail, but thats very speculative.
 
Say the Central Powers win WW1. Assuming they do everything right What is the best fate for the ottomans without going ASB

If Russia ends up in a Civil War and preferably a long one, the Ottomans can soldify control over Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as small parts of Georgia. Cyprus may or may not return. It is after all, annexed by the British in 1914. Depending on how the war went, Britain may give up Kuwait. That is a big if...

That is about it.

Edit: abolution of the capitulations with entente powers.
 
Allah, why does everybody always focus on giving the Ottomans a terrible case of Dutch Disease as the cute to their ills? I'd say the best case scenario would be one that sees the RCW bleed into a general anarchy rather that having a consolidated Bolshevik movement, allowing them to pick up some modest gains in the Caucasus. Piggyback off rail development from the Berlin to Baghdad (Now likely to Basra) to integrate East Anatolia and the Mosul area more tightly into the Ottoman economy and society. Encourage settlement/denomadization of the Kurds and push assimilation gently: probably by injecting Turkish migrants via distribution of formerly Armenian and Assyrian land (cleared by... well... you know what was going on). Industrialization will start to pick up at some point.

Depending on how tje war is won, Armenian casualties in war may be lower in OTL. Not all of them will return to Eastern Anatolia considering the danger.

I think a decent share of the wealthy Armenians in the Western Part of the Empire might partake in the oil industry.
 
Say the Central Powers win WW1. Assuming they do everything right What is the best fate for the ottomans without going ASB
Stay neutral till St Petersburg and Paris have fallen, then declare war. Hope that the victorious CP don't kick off 'The Last Crusade'...
 
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