What was Stalin's best possible moves against Hitler (and their significance)?

As to some specific questions to narrow this down, was there any way to goad Hitler into declaring war earlier than OTL? Like invading Romania on top of Finland, shelling east Prussia kind of like the N. Koreans did to the S. Koreans as a provocative measure some years ago, ransacking the German embassy in Moscow and holding all the German diplomats hostage. Anything that would set Hitler off, and make him do something incredibly stupid like declare war on the USSR before France has even fallen.

And what would the effects of wartime economic mobilization and open mobilization of the army be -- like beginning after Germany declares war on Poland-- (I'm sure this might send Hitler over the edge on top of any number of other things)? Open mobilization is IMO a prerequisite for stopping the German army at the Dnepr-Dvina line. Bryan Fugate explains this idea in Thunder on the Dnepr (in his book he discusses the very intriguing three Kremlin/RKKA war games that happened right before Barbarossa)
Had the German advance been held at the Dnepr and Dvina Rivers, and had the Russians been able to concentrate their strategic reserves properly on the flanks of Army Group Center, in all probability the war would have been over for Germany as far as any offensive efforts were concerned. The worsening weather--first rain, then ice--in October and November could have been the curtain raiser for the counteroffensive by the strategic reserve against the exposed flanks of the Central Army Group. This counteroffensive, as fate would have it, came neither in October nor in November, nor did it come in the area of the Dnepr and Dvina Rivers. Rather, it came in early December at the very gates of Moscow.
 
The Soviets were not ready for war before 1941. Provoking Germans in this stage just after the purge would not likely have helped the Soviets. They could attack Romania, which if successful would deprive Germans of oil, however Germany could send forced in and big down the Soviets.
 
Don't concentrate so many forces right at the border. Allow local commanders to retreat and trade space for time.

Playing devil's advocate, wouldn't the possibility be that it would cause a lot of panic and headache for the other commanders who are trying to get to or coordinate the front during the first months of Barbarossa.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
Depends, how early can we go? Frankly the best POD for Russia overall is to have some aliens hit Lenin with their techno space-ball bats, and he realizes what an absolute bastard and moron Stalin would turn out to be, and have him immediately strung up, and let rabid mice knaw on his testicles until he dies from infection.

If you can keep Russia from turning into a paranoid, politically-promoting, idiot-led backwater throughout the 30's, you've got a much better chance. But by 1940, their military was pretty close to being as thoroughly screwed as you can get it without having the Soviet high command deliberately sabotaging their own forces.


As far as concrete steps that need to be taken though, Stalin needs to immediately cede control of the military and related foreign policy to a committee of knowledgeable generals. No NKVD, no polítical commisars, nothing. The military's business is the military's business, and everyone needs to threaten anyone else who tries to muddle it up with 7.62mm heart failure.

Second, stop shooting your engineers and skilled labor for failure to meet quotas.

Third, no fucking purges. None. Period.


Once you get your army put back together, and in a reasonable state of organization and equipment, start poking Hitler until he decides to attack. Grind the Wehrmacht down in Poland and the Ukraine, and then procede as OTL.


Its ASB as hell though. Assuming Stalin is still himself, and will act accordingly, he did about as well as he was likely to do. The man was either a traitor to the revolution, or a moron (which is not to say he couldn't be shrewd).
 
Stalin goading Hitler is ASBs.

The man was absolutely, absolutely terrified of fighting Hitler, at least before he considered himself ready.

He wanted to toss the towel and go for Brest Litovsk 2.0 within MONTHS of Barbarossa.
 
The Soviets were not ready for war before 1941. Provoking Germans in this stage just after the purge would not likely have helped the Soviet
Selling raw materials to fuel the Nazi war machine, and directing the local communist parties to hinder the Allies did not improve the Soviet position one bit.
Uncle Joe planned on 'Lets you and him fight' meaning the Nazis, the French and British all bleed each other white, and then takes all of Europe.
Whoops.
Hitler had other plans, and don't forget, Uncle Joe believed in Hitler right upto the Panzers rolling over the forward Molotov line in Poland.

Now in 1939, yeah, the Red Army was in rough shape. But in 1939, was still more than a match for Germany, especially since they would be fighting with the French and British.
 
Step 1.
After the Marco Polo Bridge incident and the rape of Nanking, approach the US for a favorable trade deal and loan, in exchange for a Soviet invasion of Japan to aid China

Step 2.
Take Manchuria, Korea and southern Hokkaido from Japan. Make sure you finish by spring 1940. This war should go a long way to solving the massive structural problems the Red Army had

Step 3.
Move your experienced army from Asia to Europe, as you'll need them there; replace them with new recruits

Step 4.
Declare war on Germany on May 11th 1940. Take over everything east of the Vistula whilst the Germans are busy in France

Step 5.
Watch the German economy implode due to a lack of imports from the USSR

Step 6.
Defeat the German counterattack somewhere on the Smolensk-Kiev line

Step 7.
Counterattack, and don't stop til you reach Gibraltar
 
It is important to remember how Stalin was able to win the war. He through under trained under armed human waves at the German army until they bogged down in the Russian winter. His soldiers were willing to do this because they were defending their Homeland. Hitler's army was pretty well trained, much better equipped until late in the war.

In a first strike war it is not necessarily a given that Russian soldiers will be willing to accept these conditions and fight as hard as they did. Maybe you are willing to die fighting in Stalingrad or to keep the Germans out of Moscow, but are you really willing to die so Stalin can take Berlin, when the Germans signed an alliance with your country and he betrayed it. I am willing to argue that no they wouldn't. Soviet lines break, Stalin is over thrown and Soviet Union capitulates after a German counter attack in 1943.

Soviet Union is not some necessarily unbeatable for, if Moscow fell and they were pushed into the Urals they stop being an effective fighting force. It almost happened otl and if the Soviet will to fight is much less than it was in otl, the Germans might have won.
 
In the early 1930s, before Hitler could start rearmament, invade Germany and overthrow Hitler.

Before he do that, relations with either Poland or Romania + Czechoslovakia must be improved, possibly to the point that a joint military action is possible.
 
About May or June 41, have a big parade and demonstration of T34s and KV1s in Moscow. Invite all the ambassadors and military attaches and international press. Give out briefs of potential army sizes X days out from start of any conflict with support documentation. The goal is to get the Germans to delay their attack until 1942 to make preparations.

Also Instead of asking for territory in November 1940, offer to give back Southern Bukovina to Romania and the Galacian oil fields in exchange for industrial goods. This transfer to take place July 25th 1941.

By 1942 the Soviets are stronger or the Germans are embroiled with the USA and may never attack.
 
Depends, how early can we go? Frankly the best POD for Russia overall is to have some aliens hit Lenin with their techno space-ball bats, and he realizes what an absolute bastard and moron Stalin would turn out to be, and have him immediately strung up, and let rabid mice knaw on his testicles until he dies from infection.

If you can keep Russia from turning into a paranoid, politically-promoting, idiot-led backwater throughout the 30's, you've got a much better chance. But by 1940, their military was pretty close to being as thoroughly screwed as you can get it without having the Soviet high command deliberately sabotaging their own forces.


As far as concrete steps that need to be taken though, Stalin needs to immediately cede control of the military and related foreign policy to a committee of knowledgeable generals. No NKVD, no polítical commisars, nothing. The military's business is the military's business, and everyone needs to threaten anyone else who tries to muddle it up with 7.62mm heart failure.

Second, stop shooting your engineers and skilled labor for failure to meet quotas.

Third, no fucking purges. None. Period.


Once you get your army put back together, and in a reasonable state of organization and equipment, start poking Hitler until he decides to attack. Grind the Wehrmacht down in Poland and the Ukraine, and then procede as OTL.


Its ASB as hell though. Assuming Stalin is still himself, and will act accordingly, he did about as well as he was likely to do. The man was either a traitor to the revolution, or a moron (which is not to say he couldn't be shrewd).
My question is: how powerful would the Soviet Army have been if there had been no purged and those senior officers were still there?
 
Avoid the Rzhev Meatgrinder and, instead, order smaller operations in the area.
Avoid the Second Battle of Kharkov and instead mount defensive positions against Army Group South, which may prevent Stalingrad.
Basically, avoid Stalin's overconfidence after his victory at the Battle of Moscow from 1941. The germans may end up in a Kursk-like position, a year earlier than IOTL. If the soviets can achieve a breakthrough here, then the war is shortened by quite a few months, with the Iron Curtain possibly laying further west.
 

Deleted member 1487

AFAIK, it was Poland (and the Allies in general) that distrusted Stalin so much that an alliance was pretty much impossible.
Wasn't impossible, just wasn't possible on the terms Stalin wanted IOTL, that is to send troops into Poland and never leave. They could have made a deal or even just not signed a deal with Hitler and left him with the proposition that attacking Poland would mean war with the USSR and Allies, plus having to fight the Soviets only after they conquered Poland entirely...while freeing the Poles up to concentrate against just the Germans.
 
Best possible move? Don't sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and side with the Allies earlier.

Yes, best possible moment might be November 1939. After bases from Baltic States have been achieved and while intimidation of Finland is in progress. Just total embargo on Germany might be enough.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
My question is: how powerful would the Soviet Army have been if there had been no purged and those senior officers were still there?

Midway between their OTL collapse of entire armies, and initial US performance.


There was still some inherent flaws of the Red Army beyond upper leadership. A stronger officer corps primary serves to keep the politics further removed from the field operations. But you need to remember, it's not the generals and staff officers that keep a unit from disintegrating in the field, it's the NCO's, and majors, and lieutenant-colonels that keep soldiers from coming apart in the field.

And when you start talking about corps, and armies, it's their communications that keep them together.

And neither directly stemmed from the purges, but rather the drastic expansion of the Red Army prior to WWII, and there's no practical way to avoid that; it needed to happen.

The real issue facing the Red Army is that, lacking the same institutional memory and Esprit de Corps of the Heer, and plagued with the inherent incompetency of a politically-led military, they need to start expanding in 1936, for which they lack the money, and would likely solidify anti-soviet sentiments in the West.


Beyond that, they have two options; expand the army quickly and disperse your experienced troops, and then have the Germans crush large formations of your largely inexperienced army.

Or you can keep it smaller, more organized and experienced, and then have most of your highly experienced units simply ground down by the largest invasion in the history of human warfare.


By 1941, Germany had had two years of practical field experience to fine tune their armies. They literally set the world standard. With any reasonable POD, the Soviets are still going to take it on the chin no ifs, ands, or buts. And it's hard to significantly improve Soviet performance without giving them prophetic knowledge of the 1940's, because they accidentally and for the wrong reasons made a lot of the right choices.



For political POD's, someone needs to shoot Stalin and his gang before Lenin kicks the bucket. There's no other single thing you can do that will make as big of a difference.

When we get down to the military reality of the situation, the Soviets needed to hoard radios, spare parts, and build several defense lines between Molotov Line and Stalin Line. All units forward deployed to the Molotov line should have the best radios available, lots of machine guns, mortars, cannons, and ammunition, and not a single truck.

They have two jobs. They're the trip wire, and the speed bump for everyone behind them.

Everyone else has lots of transportation. They need to put up a hell of a fight, and then fall back to the next line (and pre-positioned reinforcements), and get ready to do the whole thing over again.


As I've said before, the Soviets are going to take it on the chin. The Germans will punch through the Stalin line and run wild over the Ukraine and Belarus and Baltics no matter what you do. But if you do it right, everything might buy you a few extra week's over OTL.
 
Don't invade Finland. Performance in Finland (lack thereof) was what convinced Hitler that the USSR would fold if he just kicked in the door.
 
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