What territory does Germany gain after a win in WWI?

Just as the title says. What territory is Germany likely to gain if it wins WWI?

My thoughts:


  • Belgium
  • Luxembourg
  • Belfort
  • The rest of Lorraine
And after Austria-Hungary collapses:

  • Austria
  • Czechia
  • Maybe Slovenia, maybe
 

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Qualify the win: when is it? How much does Germany win by? Do they occupy Paris, how much of Russia is occupied? Who is in the war?
 
Not even Flanders. Both would be split and puppetized.

Luxemburg and Belfort probably, but the entirety of Lorraine is a bit much. Chunks cut out of Meurthe-et-Moselle is more likely (ie, the western slopes of the Vosges, possibly, but unlikely, up to the Meuse and Nancy, Briey-Longwy, likewise, possibly, but unlikely, up to the Meuse and Verdun.

Austria, if A-H collapses, sure, Czechia is less likely, but the Sudetenland might be swallowed, Slovenia is a probably not, though don't rule it out. Depends on whether Germany wants Adriatic ports or not.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Highly dependent on how Germany wins. When, How, by How much.

Germany will want to show gains. A buffer state of Poland and Baltic republics is a given in the east. Details can widely vary. OTL shows about the max possible German gains in treaty of B-L.

In the west, Germany first will want a border adjustment to a more defensible border and to keep some of the French mines near the border. Germany will want a puppet Belgium. Germany will want colonial gains. Germany will want reparations. Germany will want to cripple France. All this depends on the negotiations and how the war ends.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Don't forget Africa. Germany would probably demand the Belgian Congo and chunks of French Equatorial Africa. The French and Belgians would be much more willing to surrender colonial territory than territory in Europe itself.
 
Depends. But assuming it is like OTLs blocs:

If Germany is stronger in the west and weaker in the east, it will lose - it qwill still bog down before reaching Paris, while the Russians take all of East Prussia and possibly advance into Posen and Silesia.
Plus, Germany can never knock out the UK totally, and that in itself will constrain what Germany can annex in the West. The ore deposits of Longwy in the Arrondissement of Briey are most plausible.

So a winning Germany must have been dtrong in the East, and that is probably where its gains will be. The usual suspects called for the puppetization of Poland and the Baltic provinces, plus the annexation of a border strip from Poland. Even when Germany had all they thought they could grab, Lithuania, Finland and Ukraine were to be vassal kingdoms, not annexed.

An unusal, but possible way to handle Poland would be: After the negotiations between Germans, Austrian-Hungarians and Polish collaborateurs break down, the 1795 border is reinstated. Then Prussia annexes Neuostpreußen and Südpreußen, Cisleithania takes Neugalizien between Vistula and Bug - with obvious results for the Polish opinion during the rematch.
 
Not even Flanders. Both would be split and puppetized.

Luxemburg and Belfort probably, but the entirety of Lorraine is a bit much. Chunks cut out of Meurthe-et-Moselle is more likely (ie, the western slopes of the Vosges, possibly, but unlikely, up to the Meuse and Nancy, Briey-Longwy, likewise, possibly, but unlikely, up to the Meuse and Verdun.

That's pretty close.

* Luxembourg
* Briey-Longwy
* Belfort
* Grand Couronné (high ground overlooking Nancy)
* Some other minor border adjustments along the Vosges

All in all, pretty minor. Belgium might be split up, reduced to protectorates...but not annexed. There are not many victory scenarios where Germany will be able to treat Belgium like a complete doormat. Germany can't really get at Britain, and Britain will fight very hard to preserve some kind of Belgian neutrality and integrity.

In the East: Minor parts along the Polish and Lithuanian borders, preferably lightly populated ones. Lithuania and the United Baltic Duchy to be set up as closely tied protectorate principalities, perhaps to be formally joined down the road after some years of economic and cultural integration. The Crimea taken as a colony. Poland and Ukraine created as allied principalities.

Abroad: Southern French Equatorial Africa and Belgian Congo, to help create a German Mittelafrika - if the war goes well enough. That will compensate for the loss of most of Germany's Pacific possessions.

If Germany wins, I don't see Austria-Hungary falling apart; though it is possible that the postwar negotiations for the Ausgleich renewal (scheduled for 1917) might fall apart, with Hungary going its own way.
 
So, in the west, something like this?

Possible German western WWI gains.PNG
 
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An unusal, but possible way to handle Poland would be: After the negotiations between Germans, Austrian-Hungarians and Polish collaborateurs break down, the 1795 border is reinstated. Then Prussia annexes Neuostpreußen and Südpreußen, Cisleithania takes Neugalizien between Vistula and Bug - with obvious results for the Polish opinion during the rematch.

That is... interesting. It would appear the Imperial Germans in your post decided they would annex more of Poland than was ever discussed to be annexed.
 
-Germany might take everything east of the Meuse (easternmost Belgium, Luxembourg, and parts of France near the Alsace-Lorraine border). In the east a Polish puppet state with maybe parts of Lithuania taken. Puppets out of Baltic duchy (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Finland, Ukraine, and Belgium.
-Germany takes Nigeria, Congo, and Uganda
-Austria makes Serbia and Albania all but provinces in its Empire though it either falls apart or comes to a major renegotiation with Hungary. Much of Veneto east of Venice itself reverts to Austria with Venice possibly becoming a free city.
-Macedonia to Bulgaria along with Thracian Greece and Northern Dobrudja
-Ottomans reclaim Libya, Aegean Islands, Cyprus, Kuwait, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Crete.
-US to pay token war indemnities
 
East of the Meuse is a lot of territory, and most of it is non-German speaking. Strategically, only some of the strategically critical territories near the border (Briey-Longwy, the Trans-Moselle, Belfort), are desirable under any circumstances.
 
Germany's aims in WW I were quite limited. They wouldn't have annexed Belgium or any French territory - the occupied populations would be quite resistant to a German presence and such hostility would have been aided by both France and Britian seeking to undermine Germany. Most likely,the whole of Belgium would have been demilitarized, as would those French lands deemed essential to German security. In the east, Germany would have taken advantage of the newly emergent countries carved from Imperial Russia to establish a buffer zone: Poland, the Ukraine, the Baltic States and Belorussia would have all most likely had German aristocrats placed on thrones and those countries would be bound to Germany politically, economically and militarily.

Germany would possibly have taken the Belgian Congo for itself and would have insisted on an unrestricted build-up of it's Navy - a previous sticking point for Britain. Germany may also have taken control of France's Pacific holdings - Polynesia, etc.

I see them annexing Austria and other German lands from the corpse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Beyond that, I don't see Imperial Germany pursuing the megalomanical dreams of global conquest envisioned by Hitler.
 
Germany's aims in WW I were quite limited. They wouldn't have annexed Belgium or any French territory - the occupied populations would be quite resistant to a German presence and such hostility would have been aided by both France and Britian seeking to undermine Germany. Most likely,the whole of Belgium would have been demilitarized, as would those French lands deemed essential to German security. In the east, Germany would have taken advantage of the newly emergent countries carved from Imperial Russia to establish a buffer zone: Poland, the Ukraine, the Baltic States and Belorussia would have all most likely had German aristocrats placed on thrones and those countries would be bound to Germany politically, economically and militarily.

There's considerable evidence to indicate that critical territories such as Briey-Longwy and Belfort were on the table. They're very small, so it won't be hard to control them, but the strategic benefit is gigantic. Belgium, likewise, has most of her value tied up in her ports, so demilitarization is really of little value.

Germany would possibly have taken the Belgian Congo for itself and would have insisted on an unrestricted build-up of it's Navy - a previous sticking point for Britain. Germany may also have taken control of France's Pacific holdings - Polynesia, etc.

On the other hand, miles of colonial land were generally considered secondary in importance. It's actually the area hardest for Germany to enforce her demands.
 
There's considerable evidence to indicate that critical territories such as Briey-Longwy and Belfort were on the table. They're very small, so it won't be hard to control them, but the strategic benefit is gigantic. Belgium, likewise, has most of her value tied up in her ports, so demilitarization is really of little value.



On the other hand, miles of colonial land were generally considered secondary in importance. It's actually the area hardest for Germany to enforce her demands.

I've always felt that the colonies add an interesting element to this scenario. Obviously, aside from whereever Lettow Vorbeck happened to be at any given time, Germany would not be in possession of any colonial territories. That means if it wants them back, it's going to have to either have forced the allies to into some kind of unconditional surrender (as opposed to an armistace like OTL) or it will have to compromise on continental issues. Taking additional land could require considerably more compromise. Though most German leaders probably would have been most interested in the colonial edventures, the Kaiser seems to have been pretty passionate about it. Then again, he was passionate about a lot of things.

If however they agreed to cede their colonies, they might convince the British and the French to let Germany extend hegemony in Central and Eastern Europe.

And then, as if things weren't complex enough, there's also the question of those Middle Eastern territories which were under British occupation and were of significant importance.
 
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On the West front, the German Empire had this plan.

Neutral Netherlands force in German customs union, but stay independent state.
Luxembourg annexation by the Empire.
Belgium is transform into Tribute state under strong political an economic Control under the Empire.
there were plans of cut up Belgium, were the Province of Liege and Luxembourg annexation by the Empire.
The Belgium Colony Kongo integrate with German Africa colony to "Mittelaftika" (middle Africa colony)

also expansion of Elsass-Lotringen to east side of the river Maas (from Nancy over Verdun to Sedan)
build of Military strongholds for German Army in those towns:
Antwerpen, Brugge, Boulogne, Calais, Dunkirchen, Ostende, Zeebrugge.

On the East front, plans were some vague.
it seems that Empire wanted to create allot of new Tribute states under German customs union.
to have buffer state between them and Russia, those were Poland, Ukraine. (also Belarus?)
on Baltic states it seems that German Empire wanted to germanized it again, like the Teutonic Knights doings in 12 century.
also create buffer state between them and Russia.

source: german history books
but you can find it also in Robert Cowley first "What if?" book
also in Niall Ferguson, "Virtual History"
 
Don't forget the territory already occupied in Russia untill the armistrice of 1917. This land could also be included, though there were quite a lot of non German (Slavish) people living there as well.
 
Don't forget the territory already occupied in Russia untill the armistrice of 1917. This land could also be included, though there were quite a lot of non German (Slavish) people living there as well.

You know that ocupation not equals anexation, right?

The Empire was not so keen territoral gains, more Mitteleuropa and German Kings as the heads of the new created states.
 
Considering France: the aforementioned strategical places (Belfort, West rim of the Vosges etc.) are small and doable. That might include Verdun. Additionally, the Germans would likely take the French mines thereby. This alone would weaken France significantly. Furthermore, Luxembourg would become a German state. But that's about it in terms of annexations: Germany profits quite a lot of these without taking in a lot of restive population (some form of ethnic cleansing is nevertheless likely, although I doubt it being bloody and unplanned).

Now the other aims are to criple France and to deter Britain. With respect to Britain, the Germans will want to have de-facto control on Belgium. Whether that includes occupation or merely economic links will be subject to negotiations - probably Germany will get rather small gains here since Britain would be willing to offer good deals elsewhere for having Germany out of Belgium (only Britain can offer Germany a Pacific colonial Empire).

What I could see as part of the negotiations is French Flandres being united with Belgium or Flandres, whichever exists. I wouldn't even rule out something to go to Italy: If the Italians leave the war early or offer a separate peace they may gain Corsica, Savoy, Nice and Tunisia just to weaken France whereas parts of Friaul may go to AH or something like that.
 
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