What stronger brazilian response could have come after the bolivian nationalizations in 2006.

[Gukpard]

In 2006 the nationalist government of Evo Morales realised the nationalizations of the petrobrás (Brazilian state oil company) in the country. The brazilian government cordially accepted it causing a minor scandal and things proceeded as normal, with this being basically a thing for the right wing to throw in the political debate from time to time, a "weak response".

Ciro Gomes was the underdog in the 2002 election and had a tiny shot chance of being elected that was carefully and efficiently destroyed, allowing Lula to get elected. Let's say that Ciro Gomes had won (an extremely unlikely, but not ASB scenario), and now the nationalizations are about to happen in 2006. Gomes is from the PDT party known for being the party of Getúlio Vargas (who created the petrobrás), and he is known for being hot headed and having temporary rage moments, so how he could react to that? Could he prevent the nationalizations?

calling @Guilherme Loureiro and @Vinization

 

[Vinization]

I don't know enough about the nationalizations to really contribute to this discussion, but my assumption is that things wouldn't be that different. It's not like Brazil and Bolivia had adversarial relations at the time.

 

[mariano kant]

Would be better to start negotiations about a review of the operations of petrobras in bolivia with Evo before he took power.

do a press win for both sides "we refuse such base resource imperialism, this is a new era, viva la patria grande etc etc" and lula hugs evo in a rally in el alto after he gets elected, everyone goes away happy.
joint ventures are the way of the future, anyway...

 

[Gukpard]

I don't know enough about the nationalizations to really contribute to this discussion, but my assumption is that things wouldn't be that different. It's not like Brazil and Bolivia had adversarial relations at the time.

And the (electable) right wing is neolib so they won't care... The only one I think it might do something is Enéas.

 

[mariano kant]

Getúlio Vargas (who created the petrobrás)

also let's be honest here
what would be more in the spirit of vargas than nationalizing the hydrocarbon industry
other than sending pregnant jewish women to nazi germany

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

The impression I get(but won't ever be able to know either way) is that the Brazilian government knew it was coming(on some level) and chose to let it happen, effectively sacrificing Petrobras' assets in exchange for keeping relations with Bolivia(and the rest of Latin America) cordial.

As Gukpard said, the only other possible presidents who might not do the same are Ciro(not 100% on this, might go either way) and Enéas(would definitely sic the Army on Bolivia - even if it would cost him the seat). But if either were president, I doubt Morales would do the same; I think he would try to make a deal with Gomes, and would not provoke Enéas.

BTW, I disagree that things proceeded as normal after the nationalization; a few months later, someone else(either Rafael Correa or the previous president of Ecuador, IIRC) started saying he would do the same thing as Morales did... and Lula fell on him like a sack of bricks, applying full diplomatic pressure until the matter was quietly dropped. That reaction tells me Lula would rather not have the same thing(and the political attacks that came with it) happen to him again.

 

[mariano kant]

BTW, I disagree that things proceeded as normal after the nationalization; a few months later, someone else(either Rafael Correa or the previous president of Ecuador, IIRC) started saying he would do the same thing as Morales did... and Lula fell on him like a sack of bricks, applying full diplomatic pressure until the matter was quietly dropped. That reaction tells me Lula would rather not have the same thing(and the political attacks that came with it) happen to him again.

this is why i feel some kind of negotiation pre elections would work
i mean, this could be the blueprint for a new relationship with the rest of south america, with correa's ecuador as another example. would lose them some money in the short run, but would get brazil way more soft power in the medium term.
all these leaders mentioned are masters of media, they could spin this up in a way that keeps nationalists of all sides satisfied.
"no to resource piracy, yes to colaborative growth", lots of wiphalas fluttering in the wind...
for me that counts as a strong response, as in it´s assertive in relation to a potential threat.

 

[Gukpard]

other than sending pregnant jewish women to nazi germany

This was already discussed in the chat and has been responded over and over again in discussions everywhere so at this point it is a dead horse. I gonna leave one comment as a spoiler and won't proceed further since this is a discussion about Bolivia and nationalizations and I am just touching this topic because it is a really distastefull and disgusting thing that some history buffs like to put it out.

Spoiler: On the GRU agent

You have an GRU agent who took part in a coup attempt that left 300 dead that had an international mandate since the weimar republic for trying to overthrow a still democratic german government who was working for Stalin's government during the worst parts of the holodomor that got deported by the supreme court without direct vargas intervention ("As provas acima, extraídas do processo nº 26.l55/1936, que está arquivado no Supremo Tribunal Federal e à disposição do público, comprovam que o presidente Getúlio Vargas não teve participação ativa, como se propaga, na expulsão de Olga Benário, efetivada em setembro de 1936.") in 1936 when Nazi germany still was not a diplomatic pariah and with the garantee that the children would be returned.

Moving on.

As Gukpard said, the only other possible presidents who might not do the same are Ciro(not 100% on this, might go either way) and Enéas(would definitely sic the Army on Bolivia - even if it would cost him the seat). But if either were president, I doubt Morales would do the same; I think he would try to make a deal with Gomes, and would not provoke Enéas.

BTW, I disagree that things proceeded as normal after the nationalization; a few months later, someone else(either Rafael Correa or the previous president of Ecuador, IIRC) started saying he would do the same thing as Morales did... and Lula fell on him like a sack of bricks, applying full diplomatic pressure until the matter was quietly dropped. That reaction tells me Lula would rather not have the same thing(and the political attacks that came with it) happen to him again.

So from what you are saying Lula could maybe have aborted what Morales did if he had hindsight, since he did that with Côrrea?
And with Enéas Morales would not consider the nationalization, I see.

this is why i feel some kind of negotiation pre elections would work
i mean, this could be the blueprint for a new relationship with the rest of south america, with correa's ecuador as another example. would lose them some money in the short run, but would get brazil way more soft power in the medium term.
all these leaders mentioned are masters of media, they could spin this up in a way that keeps nationalists of all sides satisfied.
"no to resource piracy, yes to colaborative growth", lots of wiphalas fluttering in the wind...
for me that counts as a strong response, as in it´s assertive in relation to a potential threat.

Everybody wins if everything changes and everything is nationalized;
Everybody wins if nothing changes and Petrobrás remains standing;

Nice.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

So from what you are saying Lula could maybe have aborted what Morales did if he had hindsight, since he did that with Côrrea?

Note that I think he had knowledge of it. But yes, if the Brazilian government decided to act before the fait accompli, they could have at least got a better deal.

 

[mariano kant]

everything is nationalized

''everything is nationalized''
a new, jointly operated company 50% owned by petrobras and other state hangers on, the rest owned by the bolivian state and their hangers on.
a better deal for everyone, to be replicated everywhere in latin america and africa.
you just need the stroke of a pen and lots of name tags with the new logo, we work together in this patria grande, fireworks.

 

[Gukpard]

''everything is nationalized''
a new, jointly operated company 50% owned by petrobras and other state hangers on, the rest owned by the bolivian state and their hangers on.
a better deal for everyone, to be replicated everywhere in latin america and africa.
you just need the stroke of a pen and lots of name tags with the new logo, we work together in this patria grande, fireworks.

It would be the best scenario, yeah, it would integrate the mercosul even better and this would create a stronger south american sense of friendship.