What states would Robert Kennedy carry in 1968?

Bomster

Banned
Assuming that the presidential race in 1968 goes differently and somehow, against the odds, Bobby Kennedy wins the nomination, in a contest between him and Richard Nixon which states would Robert Kennedy carry?

Considering his many strengths and looking at them optimistically I made a map of the best case scenario in my eyes of this:

genusmap.php
 
Assuming that the presidential race in 1968 goes differently and somehow, against the odds, Bobby Kennedy wins the nomination, in a contest between him and Richard Nixon which states would Robert Kennedy carry?

Considering his many strengths and looking at them optimistically I made a map of the best case scenario in my eyes of this:

genusmap.php

How in the world does Nebraska go for RFK? Nixon got almost 60% of the vote there in OTL... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968 Iowa was also staunchly Republican. I'm skeptical of a few other states, but these two seem utterly implausible for any Democratic presidential candidate to carry in 1968.
 

Bomster

Banned
How in the world does Nebraska go for RFK? Nixon got almost 60% of the vote there in OTL... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968 Iowa was also staunchly Republican. I'm skeptical of a few other states, but these two seem utterly implausible for any Democratic presidential candidate to carry in 1968.
I figured that Kennedy could in a best case scenario carry both states considering that when he campaigned in Nebraska the Nebraskans were at first apprehensive about him but after he spoke with them they started to like him more. In Robert Kennedy and his Times Schlesinger states that Kennedy really connected with the farmers of the state, and hoped to return there one day. Iowa on the other hand was an assumption based off his performance in Nebraska.
 
I figured that Kennedy could in a best case scenario carry both states considering that when he campaigned in Nebraska the Nebraskans were at first apprehensive about him but after he spoke with them they started to like him more. In Robert Kennedy and his Times Schlesinger states that Kennedy really connected with the farmers of the state, and hoped to return there one day. Iowa on the other hand was an assumption based off his performance in Nebraska.

You have no idea how Republican Nebraska was (and is). It was Nixon's strongest state not only in 1968 (as I mentioned) but in 1960 when it gave him 62.07% to 37.93% for RFK's brother... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1960 Even in 1964 it only went narrowly for LBJ; Goldwater's 47.39% was his best showing in any non-Southern state other than AZ (Goldwater's own state) and ID. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1964

This goes back a long time; except for 1964 Nebraska (as a whole--and its electoral votes were not yet divided by congressional district in 1968) has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1940--when FDR, easily winning the country as a whole, lost NE by 14.37 points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1940

RFK may have gotten enthusiastic crowds, but so what? JFK got big crowds in Ohio in 1960--and lost the state decisively. He later joked that "There is no city in the United States in which I get a warmer welcome and fewer votes than Columbus, Ohio."

Nor does the fact that RFK defeated McCarthy in the NE Democratic primary in 1968 prove anything about how he would do in November; after all, Nixon easily won the GOP primary.

The farm belt was way too Republican in 1968 for RFK or any other Democratic candidate to carry--and that is especially true of NE. (Indeed, one can argue that the middle-class-origins Midwestern Scandinavian Humphrey was better fitted to the area than the born-to-wealth Northeastern Irish Catholic Kennedy. Since Humphrey didn't run in the primaries, we don't know how well he would have done in them there.)
 
While Kennedy did well with farmers in the primaries, those are Democratic voters as opposed to farmers of both parties casting ballots in the general election. In 1968, the farm belt (including Iowa) was very Republican as it is today. If anything Iowa and Nebraska would be two of the least likely states to vote for Kennedy or any Democrat for that matter. RFK would do better with farmers than the usual 1960's Democrat (including HHH), but that doesn't mean he is conquering any deep GOP strongholds.

Aside from that, this map is generally pretty accurate. He would have done well with anti-war voters on the West Coast and upper Midwest, and even better in the industrial heartland. He also would do slightly better than Humphrey in the urban Northeast due to his greater appeal to inner city voters. (But not by that much; the urban Northeast was one of Humphrey's strongest bases of support). I agree he would lose Texas and most of the South. However, compared to HHH he would fair OK in the Appalachian region and he might have a shot at winning a state or two in the Border region.
 

Bomster

Banned
While Kennedy did well with farmers in the primaries, those are Democratic voters as opposed to farmers of both parties casting ballots in the general election. In 1968, the farm belt (including Iowa) was very Republican as it is today. If anything Iowa and Nebraska would be two of the least likely states to vote for Kennedy or any Democrat for that matter. RFK would do better with farmers than the usual 1960's Democrat (including HHH), but that doesn't mean he is conquering any deep GOP strongholds.

Aside from that, this map is generally pretty accurate. He would have done well with anti-war voters on the West Coast and upper Midwest, and even better in the industrial heartland. He also would do slightly better than Humphrey in the urban Northeast due to his greater appeal to inner city voters. (But not by that much; the urban Northeast was one of Humphrey's strongest bases of support). I agree he would lose Texas and most of the South. However, compared to HHH he would fair OK in the Appalachian region and he might have a shot at winning a state or two in the Border region.
So do you think Kennedy could have won Kentucky? By siphoning off some of Wallace’s vote and securing the support of urban minorities I think he could. But it might be too southern.
 
So do you think Kennedy could have won Kentucky? By siphoning off some of Wallace’s vote and securing the support of urban minorities I think he could. But it might be too southern.

It's also important to consider that Kennedy wouldn't just be taking votes from Wallace, he'd also be taking votes from Nixon. Not just nationally, but also in the South where Nixon did very well for a Republican thanks to his Southern Strategy. To give you some data on how well RFK would have done against Nixon, according to Gallup Kennedy was trailing Nixon by 2% nationally in the summer of 1968. In contrast, Humphrey was behind Nixon by 15% in September, only two months before the election. In the end, Humphrey lost by only 0.7% in the popular vote (but by a much larger margin electorally). With this in mind, Kennedy starts out the general election campaign just barely behind Nixon before gaining substantial ground during the fall. Perhaps he would have taken at least 4-5% from Nixon and maybe 2-4% from Wallace. (If anyone has additional, perhaps better and more accurate data on how many votes RFK could have gained from Nixon and Wallace I'd love to see it). That could put KY in his column, as well as Arkansas and Tennessee but by extremely thin margins. (I'm talking about less than a percent).
 

Bomster

Banned
It's also important to consider that Kennedy wouldn't just be taking votes from Wallace, he'd also be taking votes from Nixon. Not just nationally, but also in the South where Nixon did very well for a Republican thanks to his Southern Strategy. To give you some data on how well RFK would have done against Nixon, according to Gallup Kennedy was trailing Nixon by 2% nationally in the summer of 1968. In contrast, Humphrey was behind Nixon by 15% in September, only two months before the election. In the end, Humphrey lost by only 0.7% in the popular vote (but by a much larger margin electorally). With this in mind, Kennedy starts out the general election campaign just barely behind Nixon before gaining substantial ground during the fall. Perhaps he would have taken at least 4-5% from Nixon and maybe 2-4% from Wallace. (If anyone has additional, perhaps better and more accurate data on how many votes RFK could have gained from Nixon and Wallace I'd love to see it). That could put KY in his column, as well as Arkansas and Tennessee but by extremely thin margins. (I'm talking about less than a percent).
Something like this then? (I think Arkansas Dixiecrats would rather go for Wallace instead...)

genusmap.php



Kennedy - 315 EV
Nixon - 177 EV
Wallace - 46 EV
 
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Bomster

Banned
How much would the African-American vote impact Kennedy’s performance overall across the nation, especially in the industrial Midwest and the South?
 
Well, also the 1968 Democratic convention would not be such a shitshow. This has to have strong repurcussions in polling and voting
 
Assuming that the presidential race in 1968 goes differently and somehow, against the odds, Bobby Kennedy wins the nomination, in a contest between him and Richard Nixon which states would Robert Kennedy carry?

Considering his many strengths and looking at them optimistically I made a map of the best case scenario in my eyes of this:

genusmap.php

Who do you see RFK ITTL picking as his run-
ning mate? That might make a difference.
(I think he would have just HAD to pick someone from the LBJ wing of the Demo-
crats to ensure party harmony but that might not have gone over very well with anti- Vietnam war voters)
 

Bomster

Banned
Who do you see RFK ITTL picking as his run-
ning mate? That might make a difference.
(I think he would have just HAD to pick someone from the LBJ wing of the Demo-
crats to ensure party harmony but that might not have gone over very well with anti- Vietnam war voters)
There’s several options for RFK:

Terry Sanford, a Southerner who was pro-integration/civil rights with a lot of education experience and was a supporter of both Kennedy’s. I think JFK contemplated having him as his running mate in 1960 or 1964 iirc. Probably the most likely pick for RFK in 1968.

Ralph Yarborough, a progressive Texan Senator who although was waning in popularity in his increasingly conservative home state was still very well admired and one of the few southern senators who voted in favor of civil rights. His presence on the ticket wouldn’t give RFK Texas, but it would balance it out well.

Ed Muskie, very popular in Maine but he wasn’t as much of a Vietnam dove as Kennedy would have liked. However he’s a good choice if Kennedy wants to appease the Humphrey crowd. He would of surely have earned Maine’s votes for kennedy, but TBH Maine is not an incredibly important state for an election.

John Glenn, the first American to orbit the Earth, a veteran and national hero, and a good friend to Bobby Kennedy, whom Kennedy had much admiration for. Although he has limited political experience, John Glenn would be my choice if I were Bobby, as he is incredibly well known and gets along very well with Kennedy. His presence on the ticket would give Kennedy a nationwide boost in votes, especially in Ohio, which is very important in any election.

If you want to ensure party unity, letting the Humphrey-approved Muskie be on the ticket is a good idea. But Kennedy would be more comfortable with someone he trusted and agreed with being his VP than someone from the Johnson/Humphrey camp (Johnson absolutely hated Bobby so I’m sure he’d give him a hard time). So Sanford, Yarborough, and Glenn are the best picks in my eyes. Sanford would be the most likely, but Glenn would be a better choice imo. So either one of those two are good.
 
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