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Given that the new British government that came to power in March-April 1807 was interested even more in just economic power than military/political power for South America (decided upon by Castlereagh's Memorandum of May 1807), though perhaps it could have changed its mind with a capture of Buenos Aires by the British in July of that year, here's a major question with regard to the immediate outcome of British success in 1807:

Would Buenos Aires have gotten independence either in 1807 or certainly by 1810 with British help (in which case the Banda Oriental might - but just might - split off and become a separate British colony*), or would Buenos Aires (and thus the River Plate as a whole) have been reduced to a British colony?

*due to the relative ease of administering Montevideo compared to BA because of smaller population (despite threats in the countryside posed by such people as José Gervasio Artigas), British garrisons already being located over much of the Uruguayan coast by mid-1807, as well as the rivalry between Buenos Aires and Montevideo
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