What neighboring country would a surviving Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth ally with

What neighboring country would a surviving Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth ally with

  • Prussia

    Votes: 7 16.7%
  • Austria

    Votes: 27 64.3%
  • Russia

    Votes: 8 19.0%

  • Total voters
    42
Say Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth survives with roughly post first partition border through the Napoleonic wars as a somewhat independent nation with Prussian,Austrian and Russian spheres of influence

What neighboring country would the leadership ally with

What neighboring country would the population prefer an alliance with
 
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Allying with Austria and the Ottoman empire is the best option for the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. Allying with Prussia or Russia results in it serving as a buffer zone. It's never good to be the state in the middle. Any major conflicts and the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth is the primary battlegrounds.

Since Austria is another state in the middle of other great powers, they make the best ally. Helping a great power like Prussia or Russia become more insulated while being their buffer is one of the worst things the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth could do.
 
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Got to agree with current opinions on Austria being the best ally, despite tensions over Galicia. Pragmatism/realism will be a major fuel

Prussia and Russia arent going to treat as a proper ally, more of a buffer zone that can be used and thrown away once its no longer useful in the geopolitical game. Austria is at the stage where it needs an ally that will rely on them and not the other way round. The PLC would help to deal with Prussian aggression and protective barrier against Russian invasions and influence in the Balkans.

Despite that Austria likely wouldn't be the only ally the PLC is going to go for, possibly Sweden, the Ottomans, the South German states, France. Another state to counter balance one or the both of the others so they aren't the sole/main battle ground.

Edit: As for the population some will have problems with any alliance, no option will make everyone happy because all have wronged/humiliated the PLC, though if I remember right Austria is the lowest offender in recent memory
 
Edit: As for the population some will have problems with any alliance, no option will make everyone happy because all have wronged/humiliated the PLC, though if I remember right Austria is the lowest offender in recent memory
Wouldn't ethnic Polish nationalists prefer a Russian alliance due to them only annexing land with a Belorussian or Ukrainian population or would they be irrelevant due to a surviving PLC
 
Prussia isn't an option at all whereas Russia wouldn't be a good choice because it would inevitability become less of an alliance partner and more of a satellite. Austria, on the other hand, presents a natural ally
 
Wouldn't ethnic Polish nationalists prefer a Russian alliance due to them only annexing land with a Belorussian or Ukrainian population or would they be irrelevant due to a surviving PLC
Poland and Russia dont exactly have a friendly history even as early as then.
I imagine there would be a lot of mutual distrust and enemity with Prussia but surprisingly little conflict for quite a long time (the 7 years war was very hard on prussia) so that basically really only leaves Austria who not only would make a really good ally under the right circumstances but also isn't really above being pragmatic and exchanging land, it would be really interesting if they traded the poles their slice of the partition back in exchange for support for elsewhere (danubian principalities, Silesia etc etc)

Mind you Prussia is going to go after danzig at some point and Russia looks like an obvious ally
You could have an interesting dynamic in Eastern Europe.
 
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Prussian tarrifs on Vistula hurt PLC badly. How could country that is ruining your economy become your ally? Prussia is land-hungry and has nothing to offer.
 
The Ottomans are IMO a strong choice if Polish designs on Moldavia can be settled. Both have a common enemy(Russia) that demographically swamps them. Together, they contain Russia to the Baltic and can work together to keep Russia out of the Black Sea and severely limit their ability to project power in Central Europe, neutering Russia as a European power.
 
Also, although not sharing a direct border - France. Poland and France had enjoyed good relations for centuries and it was so what customary for prominent members of society to get their education in Paris.

So I could see Poland trying to maintain close ties with Austria and France in such an scenario. I wonder if this would end up pushing Prussia and Russia closer together.
 
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