I dont see Russia backing out of that though.. loosing face amongst its slav brothers would be detrimental to its image as the protector of the slavs.. This is Nicholas II we are talking about after all.. the man was stubborn, single minded and at best inept for his station.
I never said he would back down, I was just correcting the scenario you presented IF he backed down. In reality there is no way that the GOVERNMENT would back down, as OTL Nicky didn't want mobilization, but was pressured into it by his military/government.
I will take the it was basically inevitable for the events of 1914 once in motion to have turned out any other way due to national pride and revenge issues. The Austrian Ultimatum to Serbia basically guarantees Russian involvement and if that doesn't then the French itching for 1870 the sequel will get them involved. it will be a much different played out WW I but the same players minus Italy who may stay CP in this one.
the over reaching problem being that too many powers have too many claims against each other or at least against (Germany and Austria-Hungry and of course the Russians wanting to dismantle the remainder of the Ottoman Empire) for this to blow over.
Italy will never stay CP, because they hedged their bets so much, that the only way they could declare war on France is if the French suddenly and without provocation invaded Germany, an event that was virtually ASB.
Much of the 'claims' issue is overblown, but in the East everyone had interests contrary to one another (including Germany and AH).
It was the perfect storm time, Everyone felt it best to have the war then before the other side was too strong. hence why Balkan war I - II -III - III.5 - III.6 - addnausiem never flared up or Morocco or other events.
Not exactly...
Britian not wanting competition on the high seas
The naval race ended in 1912 when Germany stopped building as many ships. The British were more worried about German economic competition and the fact that OTL the Germans were trying to invade everyone and become the continental hegemon, which no one was willing to tolerate. Otherwise the Brits would not have gone to war.
france - alsac lorraine - still really kinda irked from 1870
Not as much as you'd think. This is a really overblown point. France was more afraid of German economic competition and military power, especially if they decided they wanted French land or expand eastward. OTL they would have had MASSIVE civil unrest if they went to war without Germany attacking them first. In fact the army planned on instituting a military order over the civilian population and arrest thousands of 'troublemakers' that they thought might disrupt mobilization. When they were attacked OTL they didn't need to worry about that, much to their surprise. Now the French government was a different animal and the leadership may have thought about reclaiming Alsace and taking the Saar to humble Germany, but that was fantasy, not policy.
Austria-Hungry - Serbia must die
This also was more to sort out internal governmental problems and present a strong face in the Balkans to show that they were not the 'old man of Europe' despite the fact they were because of their terrible governing. In fact most of the AH leadership was relieved that FF was dead.
Germany - hey what can i steal from Russian Poland or can i kick france in the face again?
This is pretty much right, but with the caveat of "OMG they have us surrounded, let me knock out the weaker guy first!". Germany thought it was going to be blocked from any expansion once Russia got its military sorted out.
Russia - hey we are the Russians.. must look strong or they will think WE are the sick man of Europe and we have to protect our fellow slavs..
Its more of "hey let's head off revolution by looking strong in foreign policy!", much like AH actually.
Ottoman Empire: hey we are not as sick as you think we are!
A small cabal of 'reformers' signed a treaty with Germany after getting pissed off by British actions vis-a-vis their dreadnoughts. Not really about looking strong, more a stupid knee-jerk reaction to being humiliated yet again.
Italy: iny miny mini moe.. catch an ally by the toe..
Italy had been screwed out of treaty gains by AH and was pissed by the lack of rights her minorities had in AH. Yes they were opportunistic and sought unnoble gains, but they did have legitimate grievances against AH.
USA: i want in!.. just dont want to look to aggressive and dont want to actually get my hands dirty!
Again terrible characterization. More like "hey let's make some money and if that helps the less bad guys why not?". Then "hey our people are getting murdered on the high seas. We tried to play nice and end this thing and you guys try to have mexico invade us???". The US was really not at fault for entering the war when it did, but bungled the whole thing.
Japan: whoo hoo! spoils of war and no one is on this side of the globe!
see what i mean..
Yeah, that's about right.