(by people in other TLs, that is)
We've had this before for events throughout all of OTL history, but this one is just restricted to modern things. What would seem ASB, what in your opinion is objectively staggeringly unlikely, looking just at the world today and not the history leading up to it?
My choices would be 1) North Korea (a state with an ideology of self-sufficiency that's more dependent on outside aid than any other country in the world), 2) French Guiana (I can just imagine someone in an ATL pointing to the decolonisation map and saying 'you forgot to recolour that little bit there!') and 3) African and Middle Eastern borders, just because they were arbitrarily drawn.