I actually think that the RU falling would in some ways be worse than it moderating. Sure, you took down the huge, genocidally evil leviathan spanning the Western Hemisphere - that's great! But what arises from its remnants? Because I'll tell you this, it won't be a stable democracy. See, the issue with democracy is that it has to be recognised as a generally good or legitimate form of governance in order for it to work, and, generally, introducing it wholesale, with full voting rights for everyone, isn't a good route if you want stability. Look at Weimar - classic example of a constitutional monarchy with teeth/statocracy before WW1, given an über-democratic constitution after 1919, and look how that ended up - an utterly inept political system that fell into Hitler's lap without a fight. Populations who have been under autocratic rule - especially autocratic rule with pseudo-democratic garnishings - historically don't know how to work with the system, and get angry when it turns out the people who are running the system don't know how to do it (or, worse, are actively opposed to their choices) either, and before you know it, you might well end up with something worse than what you started with.
No, if there's any hope of the RU changing, there's only two options - A) people go full post-WWII Allied Powers on its Germany, which, logistically speaking, is a ton harder than you might think, considering it owns the better part of a continent, will end up with the coastal regions of another at this point, making the kinds of mass-bombings and systematic ideological trampling needed to uproot Custerism harder, and that's before you factor in the NUSA/RU being under this ideology in surprisingly prosperous conditions for the better part of five decades as opposed to Nazism which only had the one, or B) try and get moderates within the country to phase out Custerism/Steeleism/Pinnacleism over time.
The latter, to me, is simply the only viable option for de-Pinnacleising the RU. A sudden collapse will leave a population that associates the ideology with the good old days, expansion and increasing wealth, and almost inevitable ORRA/RU/NUSA holdouts, a takedown of the RU proper is just logistically unfeasible given their fanatically devoted population, arming of civilians, huge size and either RU or League control of nearly every harbour in the hemisphere outside Alaska, and as for mass bombing, again, superpower and much larger than WWII Germany.
Even leaving all that out, they've still got Black Bliss, and it won't be too long before they get nukes. Once they do that, well, a regime collapse would be even worse - you could get folks like good ol' "I am the Beast 666" deciding to engage in bio- or nuclear terrorism. And that's leaving out the rather horrific possibility that the 'Christian magick' shit actually works, which honestly wouldn't surprise me at this point.
I guess what I'm saying is that it's reform or bust if you don't want 9/11 only with nukes/plague on Europa/the Loomies.
And even then, keep in mind that Immolation/Climax-denialism is either gonna be widespread as a necessary fiction (since bringing it up would be career suicide) for a long-arse time or, maybe worse, people might actively celebrate it and see denialism as nonsensical - after all, it was another step to the New Jerusalem!
And I don't even want to think what the Cackalacks might get up to without the Yankees keeping an eye on 'em.