What kinds of sensitive issues would emerge in a Central Powers victory?

[Riain]

The US instigated the 1916 Program to be 'second to none' because of Germany not GB. As they voted on the appropriations their speeches were full of praise for the RN. The 1916 program was the result of the General Board's long running fear of a German-Japanese alliance necessitating a force of 8 battle squadrons to hold both oceans. The fact that this was the size of the RN was a coincidence. I agree that in any 'disarmament' or arms limitation treaty Germany would never agree to equality with the United States. They certainly were not interested before the war with either the RN or the USN.

Yes.

Germany instigated USW in early 1917 because they assessed that bringing the US into the war would take a year and that Germany would have won the war by then, this is despite the fact that at the time the entire US Army and NG was mobilised along the Mexican border. Their first assumption was correct, the US Army didn';t begin to conduct Corps and Army level operations on the Western Front until June/July 1918, well over a year from the start of USW. Their second assumption was wrong, but not wildly so as they were able to drive the Italians right back, knock the Russians out of the war entirely and conduct major offensives in the west before the Americans arrived in force.

However by 1921 Germany will not be able to make such a calculation, the USN will be both huge and a balanced fleet and the ground forces will be some 700,000 men rather than less than 200,000 in 1917. This will change the balance of power globally, it will mean the USA is actually a superpower.

The triumph of lawless authoritarianism over a rules based international order. There is no way that will result in a better world. Just sayin.

If Germany had remained under arms limitation - there would have been no Holocaust.

What lawless authoritarianism? The German Empire would undertake some political liberalisation postwar, it had already been mooted in 1914 and publicly announced at Easter 1917. The Soviet Union would still be a genocidal basket case, but it wouldn't hold the Ukraine (or at least as much of it as OTL) and possibly other territory it held so will have less people to kill by collectivisation and purge.

Keeping Germany down with a more successful ToV regime and perhaps something about the League of Nations would be a different TL (worthy of its own thread) and not relevant to this CP victory scenario. However, how would a victorious Germany and surviving AH feel about a League of Nations?

 

[AltoRegnant]

Germany needs only one colony to get mittleafrika- the Belgian Congo. A belgium they have fully occupied for a long period of time and would be quite happy to see peace.

I'm not sure how inevitable ww2 is in cp wins, but if there is even a slight window of opportunity for revolution in central africa, I'm willing to bet it would make Yugoslavia and Vietnam look tame.

Austria will also need to deal with the fact that the Hungarians refuse to negotiate with the ethnic minorities of the empire and that nearly every meaningful reform will need to go through a Budapest that refuses to entertain a victory for the Slavs.

Finally, with no reparations, France and Italy are going to see a lot of protectionism against basically everyone they legally can, which will likely have adverse effects on Britain and America since france was our second largest trade partner after the BE. Germany, #3, will likely still be hostile to america and vice versa. I don't see economic prosperity in the future of anyone except the Dutch and Germany

 

[Caravels of Portugal]

I'm not sure how inevitable ww2 is in cp wins

It's possible for an alternate World War 2 to occur. In this case, the Soviet Union led by Joseph Stalin would be the aggressor. This alternate World War would be caused by fomenting, intense anti-German sentiment and revanchist movements in the Soviet Union.

 

[Lothal]

Japan and the US’s growing rivalry over the pacific.

 

[AltoRegnant]

It's possible for an alternate World War 2 to occur. In this case, the Soviet Union led by Joseph Stalin would be the aggressor. This alternate World War would be caused by fomenting, intense anti-German sentiment and revanchist movements in the Soviet Union.

Even OTL stalin didn't want to March into germany until they were much more fatigued, right? I doubt that situation is coming ttl

 

[Wendell]

The long-term status of colonies.

 

[The Ranger]

France wanting revenge. You might see a French version of Hitler in this timeline.

 

[Riain]

Japan and the US’s growing rivalry over the pacific.

This is an interesting one. IIUC the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was not renewed in 1922 because of US pressure and was tied up with the Washington Naval Treaty somehow. I think the no fortification clauses were seen as insulting to Japan.

Perhaps in a CP victory the British might think their Alliance with Japan is worth resisting US pressure for.

 

[sert_kara_krom]

Ottomans and Germans were badly conflicted over the Caucaus OTL. Germans threatened to abandon the Ottomans over Georgia and there was shooting between the Germans and the Ottomans.

Depending on the victory, you could get a somewhat intact Ottoman presence in the Caucaus which means very solid control there, up to Dagestan maybe. The Germans could be provoking Arabs, Kurds and Greeks to distract the Ottomans and force concessions in the Caucaus. The Ottomans will want land from Greece back definitely, maybe Bulgaria too.

Control over Iran is also a problem. Again, depending on how the war ends you might see the British keeping Abadan, or losing it to... Ottomans? Germany? And what about the rest?

 

[Dorknought]

What lawless authoritarianism?

How would you describe Germany's actions in Belgium? A CP victory would make this the new standard.

The German Empire would undertake some political liberalisation postwar, it had already been mooted in 1914 and publicly announced at Easter 1917.

Not under the Hohenzollerns it wont. I know you've used the Easter 1917 announcement, stretching it far enough to demonstrate how much the Kaiser loved the Jews but if the Prussian military won the war, it's damn sure going to rule the peace. The Easter message was in response to unrest at home and was suggested to the Kaiser by his Chancellor. While it appeared to promise constitutional reform at the war’s end, it was ambiguous and hardly credibility. This was also while Bethmann Hollweg endorsed the Supreme Command’s demands for German annexations in France, Poland, and the Baltic states.

It was President Wilson that forced democracy on Germany. In his responses of October 14 and 23, he made it clear that the Allies would only deal with a democratic Germany, not an imperial state with an effective military dictatorship presided over by the Supreme Command. Max von Baden's declaration of Oct 5th that he was taking steps to move Germany towards parliamentary democracy was simply not trusted.

Note that after Wilson’s second note, Ludendorff’s resolve returned and he announced that the note should be rejected and the war resumed. However, after continued reverses Ludendorff resigned within a month.

 

[Yogurtslavia]

France wanting revenge. You might see a French version of Hitler in this timeline.

Would the UK and US side with france or germany in this case?

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

If the Central Powers have emerged victorious incl. fragmented Russia and syndicalist France, there are things that could be part of sensitive issues:

1. Emerging Slavic nationalism that is desired or poised to compete
2. Growing economic, social, and cultural problems incl. looming economic crisis in Mitteleuropan nations
3. Fragmentation of Austria-Hungary including the continuing rise of pan-Yugoslavism and emerging
   ethnic separatism which could determine the fate of dual monarchies especially dealing with the Slavic nationalists
   the Hungarians don't want to deal with
4. Monroe Doctrine
5. British, French, or Russian revanchism
6. Internal problems including paralyzing strikes and protests within Germany
7. Polish-speaking population in the eastern parts of German Empire

 

[Catsmate]

The triumph of lawless authoritarianism over a rules based international order. There is no way that will result in a better world.

You mean like the pre-war period? Where the Great Powers threatened each other, bullied minor countries and exploited their colonies?

 

[Disraeli's Ghost]

You mean like the pre-war period?

No, because atrocities and breaking International treaties was still frowned upon. In a CP victory Germany has just done both of these things in Belgium and faced no consequences for it.

You can finger point at times the Great Powers undoubtedly abused their colonies or so forth before the war, but it would have been a completely different story in a post war world where Germany has been rewarded for abusing Belgium, and the Ottomans unchecked in their armenian genocide (which when half attempted in the pre-war world very nearly led Lord Salisbury to destroy the state).
No power with the possible acceptation of Napoleon III actually tried to kick over the European chess board before 1914.

 

[Fehérvári]

If the war ends before civil war could erupt in Russia, or the Whites somehow win the RCW, then the status of Finland could lead to some serious frictions, imo.

 

[kham_coc]

The triumph of lawless authoritarianism over a rules based international order.

When in gods name did you think we had a rules based international order?

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

Germany squeezing it's eastern puppets to hard and causing a major revolt, which may be funded by a communist Russia

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Fragmentation of Austria-Hungary including the continuing rise of pan-Yugoslavism

That wasn’t popular among Croats and Slovenes. They only went along with it to seek protection from Italy wanting more territory in the Balkans.

Fragmentation of Austria-Hungary i

AH is not destined to fall apart. Despite the bad economic situation, the Empire held itself together for a while with it taking massive multi-front war to bring it down. Austria being victorious in the war does huge things to bolster its legitimacy in the eyes of its people and among its troops who fought for it. The end of the war means the blockade ends and food shipments and trade will resume easing the economic situation yielding the Empire greater stability.

Germany also won’t just let AH collapse as it’s Germany’s most significant ally.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

AH is not destined to fall apart. Despite the bad economic situation, the Empire held itself together for a while with it taking massive multi-front war to bring it down. Austria being victorious in the war does huge things to bolster its legitimacy in the eyes of its people and among its troops who fought for it. The end of the war means the blockade ends and food shipments and trade will resume easing the economic situation yielding the Empire greater stability.

Germany also won’t just let AH collapse as it’s Germany’s most significant ally.

What about Austria-Hungary reforming itself, akin to Switzerland or the U.S. which other ethnic groups could be given nominal autonomy through federalization in an attempt to calm down ethnic tensions?

 

[Fehérvári]

What about Austria-Hungary reforming itself, akin to Switzerland or the U.S. which other ethnic groups could be given nominal autonomy through

Austria-Hungary wouldn't go through sudden and far-reaching reforms. It would be a very gradual process. Actually processes, since the changes would go down differently in Austria and Hungary. Don't expect changes in the borders of crownlands either, federalisation on the basis of ethnic states would be way too drastic without any real benefit.