What kinds of sensitive issues would emerge in a Central Powers victory?

[Caravels of Portugal]

In poorly thought-out Central Powers victory timelines, it is common to depict the ATL as a peaceful, utopian timeline where World War II is prevented and the German Empire is the greatest superpower in the world. If a Central Powers victory were to be played realistically, it would lead to sensitive issues and other problems as a result of German dominance in European politics.

What kinds of sensitive issues would emerge in a realistic Central Powers victory?

 

[Catsmate]

Economic stresses, leading to a Great Depression analogue and a demand for autocratic fixes.
Political rivalries will still exist.
Nationalism isn't going away; whether it's on the Balkan scale or British/French/Russian revanchism.

 

[Dorknought]

The Monroe Doctrine

 

[Lee-Sensei]

The Monroe Doctrine

Did the Germans have interest in expanding into the Americas?

 

[Coivara]

Well, there's the Polish question.
And also the Italian question, that will definitively be an issue for A-H unless they ethnically cleanse their chunk of Northern Italy (pretty unlikely).
Plus the whole "Where does A-H goes from here".
Plus the Ottomans will have to stand against a rising tide of Arab Nationalism, which will no doubt be pumped by their rivals.
Then there's Russia, its pretty much primed to be a mess.

 

[Gudestein]

Belgium and Poland might be quite sensitive issues

 

[Dorknought]

Did the Germans have interest in expanding into the Americas?

Bismarck had called it an “insolent dogma”. Why would a victorious Germany put up with exclusion especially when the region is richer than Africa and more vulnerable.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Bismarck had called it an “insolent dogma”. Why would a victorious Germany put up with exclusion especially when the region is richer than Africa and more vulnerable.

Bismarck was against German colonialism. The Monroe Doctrine doesn’t prevent trade.

 

[marathag]

Bismarck had called it an “insolent dogma”. Why would a victorious Germany put up with exclusion especially when the region is richer than Africa and more vulnerable.

He also said 'There is a providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children, and the United States of America'

 

[Gar48]

The Russian Civil War being even worse than OTL, with the British and the Germans backing different groups

 

[BELFAST]

A lot depends on when the central powers win and what damage they take and what the peace settlement is.

 

[Coivara]

Monroe Doctrine is overestimated and has been overblown, the US has plenty looked the other way when European powers did things in the American Continent, and they didn't feel like picking up a fight.

 

[ArtosStark]

Monroe Doctrine is overestimated and has been overblown, the US has plenty looked the other way when European powers did things in the American Continent, and they didn't feel like picking up a fight.

I confess I can’t think of many examples. The only one that comes to mind is France’s conquest of Mexico, but that was more due to the US being busy blowing itself to hell at the time, than a willing acceptance of new European inroads in the America’s.

 

[JackLumber]

The Monroe doctrine worked for as long as it did not because thats what america wanted but because that's what the British empire wanted

 

[Riain]

MittelEuropa was more about political control than economic benefit, it was to provide buffer states between Germany/AH and Russia that could also help avoid the worst aspects of a blockade in wartime.

There were inbuilt stresses, German agriculturalists wanted tariff protection from cheap AH agriculture and AH industrialists wanted tariff protection from efficient German industry, so that will have to play out one way or another.

Setting up independent states as wartime expedients unleashed nationalism in those areas. Germany setting up the Kingdom of Poland from late 1916 resulted in a state that defeated the Soviet Union a few years later. Similarly the Baltics, Finland, Ukraine and Belarus walked their own paths in the chaos of the end of the war in the east and the formation of the postwar order. This will be different in a CP victory, but momentum will have been created and will have to play out somehow.

The US enacted a Defence Act and a Naval Act in mid 1916, doubling the size of the Regular Army, quadrupling the size of the National Guard and authorising the almost simultaneous construction of 10 battleship, 6 battlecruisers and 10 light cruisers to be ready 1921-23. Even if the US doesn't join the war, indeed especially if it doesn't, by 1922 or so the US will be default become a world power and rub up against Germany who has also drastically increased its power to support the hard power tools it already possessed. I struggle to imagine a peaceful agreement like the Washington Treaty in this scenario, or at least one like OTLs.

Reparations payments might be a problem for the former Entente the way it was for Wiemar Germany. Will Imperial Germany march into France if they default on payments? What about if Britain defaults, will they march into a Dominion?

Of course all this is better than the Holomodor and Holocaust. Just sayin.

 

[Dorknought]

He also said 'There is a providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children, and the United States of America'

and “The Americans are truly a lucky people. They are bordered to the north and south by weak neighbors and to the east and west by fish.”

 

[Dorknought]

Even if the US doesn't join the war, indeed especially if it doesn't, by 1922 or so the US will be default become a world power and rub up against Germany who has also drastically increased its power to support the hard power tools it already possessed. I struggle to imagine a peaceful agreement like the Washington Treaty in this scenario, or at least one like OTLs.

The US instigated the 1916 Program to be 'second to none' because of Germany not GB. As they voted on the appropriations their speeches were full of praise for the RN. The 1916 program was the result of the General Board's long running fear of a German-Japanese alliance necessitating a force of 8 battle squadrons to hold both oceans. The fact that this was the size of the RN was a coincidence. I agree that in any 'disarmament' or arms limitation treaty Germany would never agree to equality with the United States. They certainly were not interested before the war with either the RN or the USN.

 

[Dorknought]

Monroe Doctrine is overestimated and has been overblown, the US has plenty looked the other way when European powers did things in the American Continent, and they didn't feel like picking up a fight.

So the Germans pressure the Dutch (at bayonet point - cause it's easy now) to sell Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire.

The US does nothing?

 

[Wendell]

Competing Slavic nationalisms, especially with a late POD.

Installing client monarchies versus client republics.

 

[Dorknought]

Of course all this is better than the Holomodor and Holocaust. Just sayin.

The triumph of lawless authoritarianism over a rules based international order. There is no way that will result in a better world. Just sayin.

If Germany had remained under arms limitation - there would have been no Holocaust.