What kind of impact would John II's survival have on the 2nd Crusade?

IOTL Emperor John II died in April of 1143. Edessa fell in December the next year. Would his survival for another three years (until early 1147 to be precise) change the situation enough to prevent the fall of Edessa at the time of its historical fall? (It probably won't protect it forever, but that's not necessary to change things enough to derail the 2nd Crusade as we know it).

I know it could, I'm trying to sort out if that's an outcome we can take for granted - like how Emperor Henry VI of the HRE living means he goes on the crusade he planned, for instance - or if its merely one of the possibilities, in which case I can happily write my timeline about how the 2nd Crusade and events up to the Third occur more or less as OTL despite this (John living longer) as the POD.

Naturally a few details are probably different - for instance some kind butterfly sees Manuel sire a legitimate son sooner, and the Byzantine position being a bit stronger in Anatolia thanks to continued campaigning by John is all to the good - but I'd like to avoid having the whole picture be redrawn, without it looking like I have a vendetta against butterflies and my timeline is accordingly hard to take seriously (I have enough I need to do more research on to ensure I can write something plausible for post 1187 events without butterflies running amok).

So what do you guys think?

There have been a few threads on John II surviving, but I don't think any of them mentioned Edessa and the 2nd Crusade - or at least I missed them when I searched for this earlier.

Advice, sources to read, criticism, and other comments welcome.

No one has any comments?
 
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I know its in bad taste to bump your own threads, but why is no one posting anything in this one?
 
Would he not try to take advantage of this, since his priority was Anatolia he could use then in his own campaigns against the turks.
 
The 2nd Crusade arrives after John's death (not until September-October of 1147), so while it probably is assisted by him strengthening the ERE's position there (and beating the Turks that much closer into submission), he can't take advantage of it.

Well, unless one wants to animate him as a zombie, which would be kind of cool.

Undead Byzantine emperors ought to be in the category of "underused things in AH". :D

But if John is messing with Syria, the cause for the 2nd Crusade may not happen (at least at the time of OTL), and butterflies will run amok.
 
Hmmm...John might have been able to help. He and Joscelin II, Count of Edessa, were allies. However, the County was under-populated and weakly defended, and Zengi was just waiting for a chance. As soon as Joscelin takes his army elsewhere, Zengi will make a move towards the city. John might be able to send reinforcements in time, but I doubt it was a high priority for him. That said, if John did move in time, or better yet pursueded Joscelin to stay home, then the County might have lasted longer (though I'm sure it would have fallen eventually, being the most exposed and vulnerable). It certainly would have averted the Second Crusade, which would have knock-on effects on the Kingdom of Jerusalem.
 
Hmmm...John might have been able to help. He and Joscelin II, Count of Edessa, were allies. However, the County was under-populated and weakly defended, and Zengi was just waiting for a chance. As soon as Joscelin takes his army elsewhere, Zengi will make a move towards the city. John might be able to send reinforcements in time, but I doubt it was a high priority for him. That said, if John did move in time, or better yet pursueded Joscelin to stay home, then the County might have lasted longer (though I'm sure it would have fallen eventually, being the most exposed and vulnerable). It certainly would have averted the Second Crusade, which would have knock-on effects on the Kingdom of Jerusalem.

That's what I'm thinking. Sure, John could make a difference, but if he and Joscelin are allies, it is in such a tenuous way (thanks to Joscelin's behavior in John's previous attempt to secure his control of Antioch) that John might not be too opposed to Zengi taking the place.

That's the main problem I can think of. If John is focused on taking Antioch - and sources I've read are mixed on if he was aiming for that in 1143 - then Zengi might not want to draw his attention by taking Edessa.

Though if John is campaigning in Anatolia, Zengi has a good chance to do so as OTL, and John will probably not be in a good position to save the city if Joscelin botches things as OTL (given how fast Edessa fell).

http://www.roman-emperors.org/johncomn.htm

I wish I owned a copy of what the wikipedia article on John references here:

John planned a new expedition to the East, including a pilgrimage to Jerusalem on which he planned to take his army with him. King Fulk of Jerusalem, fearing an invasion, begged the emperor to only bring an army of 10,000 men with him.[9] This resulted in John II deciding not to go.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_II_Komnenos

So...is John planning a campaign in Syria (either to campaign against the Muslims or enforce his authority or both)? Beats me.

Since the POD is meant to be John not getting mortally wounded as he was OTL, what he was planning is not something I want to mess with.
 
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