IOTL Emperor John II died in April of 1143. Edessa fell in December the next year. Would his survival for another three years (until early 1147 to be precise) change the situation enough to prevent the fall of Edessa at the time of its historical fall? (It probably won't protect it forever, but that's not necessary to change things enough to derail the 2nd Crusade as we know it).
I know it could, I'm trying to sort out if that's an outcome we can take for granted - like how Emperor Henry VI of the HRE living means he goes on the crusade he planned, for instance - or if its merely one of the possibilities, in which case I can happily write my timeline about how the 2nd Crusade and events up to the Third occur more or less as OTL despite this (John living longer) as the POD.
Naturally a few details are probably different - for instance some kind butterfly sees Manuel sire a legitimate son sooner, and the Byzantine position being a bit stronger in Anatolia thanks to continued campaigning by John is all to the good - but I'd like to avoid having the whole picture be redrawn, without it looking like I have a vendetta against butterflies and my timeline is accordingly hard to take seriously (I have enough I need to do more research on to ensure I can write something plausible for post 1187 events without butterflies running amok).
So what do you guys think?
There have been a few threads on John II surviving, but I don't think any of them mentioned Edessa and the 2nd Crusade - or at least I missed them when I searched for this earlier.
Advice, sources to read, criticism, and other comments welcome.
No one has any comments?
I know it could, I'm trying to sort out if that's an outcome we can take for granted - like how Emperor Henry VI of the HRE living means he goes on the crusade he planned, for instance - or if its merely one of the possibilities, in which case I can happily write my timeline about how the 2nd Crusade and events up to the Third occur more or less as OTL despite this (John living longer) as the POD.
Naturally a few details are probably different - for instance some kind butterfly sees Manuel sire a legitimate son sooner, and the Byzantine position being a bit stronger in Anatolia thanks to continued campaigning by John is all to the good - but I'd like to avoid having the whole picture be redrawn, without it looking like I have a vendetta against butterflies and my timeline is accordingly hard to take seriously (I have enough I need to do more research on to ensure I can write something plausible for post 1187 events without butterflies running amok).
So what do you guys think?
There have been a few threads on John II surviving, but I don't think any of them mentioned Edessa and the 2nd Crusade - or at least I missed them when I searched for this earlier.
Advice, sources to read, criticism, and other comments welcome.
No one has any comments?
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