What Kind Of Butterflies that can Created,If the Byzantines Survived?

That leaves the Red Sea - not perfect but good enough for the Mamluk influence on trade to have the impact it did.

It could be the Doux of Alexandria or the Holy Commune of Aqaba or maybe the Ghassanids turn on Constantinople. A lot can happen in four hundred years or more.

Though still. The Red Sea is for the Byzantines who would still control the Diocese/Exarch of Ageyptus/Alexandria and Antioch/East the only spot where they could interact with the Overseas Silk Road Route. Capturing anything on the Persian Gulf, excluding upper reaches of the Tigris and Euphrates, would seem implausible and very, very vulnerable. There is the Nile but that would be a combination of river and overland and they would have to prop up Ethiopia credibly. It would take serious Byzantine effort to construct a fleet in the Red Sea and push out Iranian/Arab control over Mandeb. Though, it could lead to a Byzantine Suez Canal.

Though I am speaking as if the relationship between the Byzantines and Iranians was constantly hostile to one another. The two had an antagonistic relationship but, by no means one that was always at each others throats. They contributed to one another in concerns of trade and defense against Northern Nomads.

The real issue for the Byzantines would be if a Non-Stable Iranian power collapsed into a chaotic state that made the land and sea routes fraught with bandits and pirates or competing powers that destabilized the safety of passage of goods. A stable, hegemonic Iranian power that extends control into Central Asia and the Arabian Sea benefits all of Europe by extension.
 
It could be the Doux of Alexandria or the Holy Commune of Aqaba or maybe the Ghassanids turn on Constantinople. A lot can happen in four hundred years or more.

And it is bloody unlikely that Constantinople is just going to succumb to that.

A lot can happen, but if we're assuming Byzantine survival from this POD, assuming Byzantium still loses the area anyway - when comparing it to PODs after it's been lost - seems contrary.

Though still. The Red Sea is for the Byzantines who would still control the Diocese/Exarch of Ageyptus/Alexandria and Antioch/East the only spot where they could interact with the Overseas Silk Road Route. Capturing anything on the Persian Gulf, excluding upper reaches of the Tigris and Euphrates, would seem implausible and very, very vulnerable. There is the Nile but that would be a combination of river and overland and they would have to prop up Ethiopia credibly. It would take serious Byzantine effort to construct a fleet in the Red Sea and push out Iranian/Arab control over Mandeb. Though, it could lead to a Byzantine Suez Canal.
The Ottomans could do Mesopotamia without any of the instruments of logistics having improved between their time and the Byzantines. Something to keep in mind.

As for a fleet in the Red Sea - well, the point I'm making is that the fleets are going TO Egypt, so the Byzantines have that on their side. They don't need to control the traders - the Mamluks didn't and they did fine (initially).

The real issue for the Byzantines would be if a Non-Stable Iranian power collapsed into a chaotic state that made the land and sea routes fraught with bandits and pirates or competing powers that destabilized the safety of passage of goods. A stable, hegemonic Iranian power that extends control into Central Asia and the Arabian Sea benefits all of Europe by extension.
I don't think that's an issue. Not one compared to a live competitor.
 
If the Byzantine Empire had no effect on Iberia, and the Reconquista went another way, that would not be butterflies, but that would still be reasonable. An alternate history, or a POD at all, is technically physically impossible--things only appear random when the factors influencing them aren't fully analyzed. Identical starting conditions lead to one definite result. If we have the same starting conditions with a different result (in other words, a POD) we might as well be saying the whole universe is random for a split second allowing that to happen.

that a pod is technically possible or not is up for scientific debate.

Identical starting position leading to same result? only when everything is the same up to the last atom. just ask developers of meteorological models how small random changes can get big (where the butterfly effect comes from)
 
What kind of butterflies would be created if the Byzantines survived?

Well, hasn't anybody heard of Harry Turtledove's book Agent of Byzantium which shows an Empire in the mid 14th Century CE (etos Kosmou 6810-40) which is undergoing a technological revolution, so by the 21 st Century CE we would even see the first Roman starships returning.. Carl Sagan once said on Cosmos that the fall of Rome and the Muslim expansion retarded technical expansion. A surviving Eastern Roman Empire would have held on to North Africa, Egypt, Syria, Judea and Asia Minor and expanded into Hispania and Narbonese Gallia and well as recreating Mare Nostrum in the Mediteranean and yes Italia as well , with the Pope under the thumb of the Patriarch of Constantinople. Egypt and Syria would still be Monophysite , and Arabia and Persia becoming Nestorian Christian as the dominant faith of Asia, Western Europe falling under Celtic Christianity under a Anglo Saxon England and the Franks and Lombards under the exiled Pope at the monastery of St. Gall. The Bulgars, Serbs and the Rus would accept Orthodox and Im not sure about the Viking, perhaps Celtic or Russian orthodoxy.I can see the Empire allied with England and Ethiopia. I can see them building an earlier analogue of the Suez canal and expanding trade with India and Indonesia and perhaps they would even discover and settle Australia. The Vikings and the
English would discover Vinland and the Romans of Hispania and Africa would discover the southern continent of Vinland and name it after an Italian mapmaker Americus Vespucius described it in 1505 CE. The Romans would be abhorred by the Aztecs and wipe them out but make a deal with the Incas. The Industrial revolution would have occurred earlier and eventually demokratia would result in an elected Emperor and Senate The Roman Republic would eventually be revived, and humanity would reach the stars even now.
 
Well, hasn't anybody heard of Harry Turtledove's book Agent of Byzantium which


. . . is hardly something I'd take as serious alt-history in the sense we use that term judging by his other works.

And judging by what you describe, it sounds even worse than I feared.

 
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What? the Muslims retarted technological expansion, Roman Starships and And and Eastern Roman Empire that manages to expand Justinian's conquests and hold them. I think my Brain may have lost a few cells but I'd put more credibility in looking at the timelines here than that mental abomination of an "alt-history" book.
 
It'd be hilarious to read a TL where the Byzantines destroy the Seljuks only to be destroyed in turn by the Mongols.

What? the Muslims retarted technological expansion, Roman Starships and And and Eastern Roman Empire that manages to expand Justinian's conquests and hold them. I think my Brain may have lost a few cells but I'd put more credibility in looking at the timelines here than that mental abomination of an "alt-history" book.

All that was pulled out of his ass (pardon my French) by the new member. "Agent of Byzantium" has nothing of it.

"Agent of Byzantium" is set in a 14th or 15th century whith a Byzantine Empire only slightly bigger than Justinian's at its peak (ex. their coast holdings in Iberia reach the Pyrenees but the interior is ruled by unspecified "Barbarians", France is independent - and invented gunpowder, at least in Europe's case -, Persia is an always present threat, and the only Byzantine additions in the east seem to be in Arabia which went Christian rather than Muslim in the ATL). There is no transoceanic discoveries or colonies let alone space flight.

PS: Perhaps the biggest misconception about the Reconquista is that it was a war of Christians versus Muslims.
 
I predict that the Byzantines and the Sassanid Persians would keep butting heads until one of them was crushed. Considering how much the wars weakened the two states, this would mean no expansion back west, so expect some pretty neat Germanic states in Northern Africa.
 
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