What it Spain keeps hold of Portugal?

The OTL 1580-1640 was a union destined to fail for reasons stated by Lusitania. Portugal felt its needs ignored by the Hapsburgs, who were trying to centralise the union under Madrid.
If the 1640 revolution failed, it would be followed by others until it succeeded, as the conditions that caused it would increase the discontent in all levels of society.
 
I don't think the Iberian Union was an "historical accident" at all. There were very strong reasons for it to happen when it did (overcoming a very deep-rooted sense of Portuguese nationalism): Spain was imensely rich and powerful at that time, causing the Portuguese elites to see with good eyes the possibility of a union between the two countries. That was the sole reason why Philip got the Crown even though he was third in line according to the traditional succession rules (back in 1383, on the other hand, dona Beatriz was definitely first in line, and yet she got crushed by the army of her bastard cousin just because of nationalism).

The problem with the Iberian Union was that the Portuguese nobility and bourgeoisie made a huge mistake in thinking that a union with Spain would serve their interests. The pan-european nature of the Habsburg monarchy pretty much guaranteed that they would keep getting drawn into all sorts of continental conflicts, severely restricting the amount of funds available to the one thing that mattered to Portugal and its elites: the colonial Empire.

Portugal, at this time, had been painfully aware for centuries of its position as a small, peripheral European nation without any chance of success in its own contitenent. For the Portuguese of this time the Empire was everything! It was where everything came from: the money, the glory, the religious goals etc.

If you want the Iberian Union to survive, what you need to do is hard but fairly straightforward: You need to keep the Portuguese Empire from declining under the dual monarchy.

If you can do that, then probably no revolt will happen. If you can't, a revolt is guaranteed.
 
In order for this to work, an earlier POD would definitely be needed. Possibly even as early as Afonso Henriques being unable to win independence and recognition from Leon. Another one might be Beatriz of Portugal, queen consort of Juan I of Castile, being able to successfully claim the throne for herself over her uncle, the eventual OTL João I. This would have been in 1385, perhaps Castile winning a War of Portuguese Succession could bind Portugal and Castile together, but could also butterfly away the later unification of Castile and Aragon under Isabel and Fernando. However, with Portugal being united to Castile through a woman, there will be a long, long succession of male claimants fighting for Beatríz's inheritance. A male Portuguese heir who also inherits the throne of Castile has a much better chance of keeping Portugal within an eventual united Spain.

Of course, @Torbald has a great thread about just that, beginning with a surviving Miguel da Paz inheriting all 3 crowns under his personal union.
 
In order for this to work, an earlier POD would definitely be needed. Possibly even as early as Afonso Henriques being unable to win independence and recognition from Leon. Another one might be Beatriz of Portugal, queen
consort of Juan I of Castile, being able to successfully claim the throne for herself over her uncle, the eventual OTL João I. This would have been in 1385, perhaps Castile winning a War of Portuguese Succession could bind Portugal and Castile together, but could also butterfly away the later unification of Castile and Aragon under Isabel and Fernando. However, with Portugal being united to Castile through a woman, there will be a long, long succession of male claimants fighting for Beatríz's inheritance. A male Portuguese heir who also inherits the throne of Castile has a much better chance of keeping Portugal within an eventual united Spain.

Of course, @Torbald has a great thread about just that, beginning with a surviving Miguel da Paz inheriting all 3 crowns under his personal union.
Miguel da Paz or any analogue will work well but also the survival of don Carlos or his line.
Unlike Philip (maternal grandson of Manuel), don Carlos (being a maternal grandson and the only surviving descendant of John III after Sebastian’s death) would be the unquestionable first in line and directly after Sebastian’s death butterflying also Cardinal-King Henry’s rule (who was only the younger brother of King Henry) so Portugal would be integral part of Spain after Philip’s death... You just need to take away from Portugal the chance to slip out of the union (and during the OTL union the existence of two branches with more right to the crown of Portugal than the house of Austria was a danger for preserving the union).
 
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