What it Abe Masahiro never consulted Emperor Komei about the "Black Ships" ?

If Abe Masahiro did not involve the Emperor in political questions in 1853

  • There probably would have been no Imperial Restoration

    Votes: 3 27.3%
  • An Imperial Restoration would have been inevitable anyway by 1900

    Votes: 8 72.7%

  • Total voters
    11

raharris1973

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Abe Masahiro was the chief senior councillor in the Tokugawa shogunate of Bakumatsu period Japan at the time of the arrival of Commodore Matthew Perry on his mission to open Japan to the outside world.

According to at least one author, he had an extra consultative approach, and he broke Tokugawa tradition by going so far as to consult the Emperor about what to do relative to the Perry Expedition. By breaking the tradition, he both publicly highlighted/revived pro-Emperor sentiment among the elite and public, and gave the unusually forceful Komei a platform to speak his mind on political questions repeatedly.

Implied in this is that Abe created an opening for a Restoration and end of the Shogunate that might not have existed otherwise.

What are your thoughts?

Could the Shogunate have lasted into the 20th century, or transformed itself into the 20th century Japanese government, without an Imperial restoration taking place? What might have been the consequences?
 
If I remember correctly, Abe turned to consultations with daimyo first to avoid taking sole responsibility for accepting US demands, which bakufu knew they had to. And when daimyo voted to reject the demands, he turned to the Emperor to offset the daimyo discontent with acceptance of the treaty. What it means, I think, is that Shogunate felt rather insecure already both internally and externally. Nevertheless, it is certainly possible that more hard-handed roju (like Ii, for example) might take whole responsibility on Shogunate and dealt with Perry and others without involving either daimyo or the Emperor.

It does not, IMO, change that much to completely butterfly the Restoration. Shogunate could not remain unchanged for long after opening the country. Even Sonno-Joi movement, probably, would emerge, though, without open and legal participation of the Imperial Court, it would take different form. Still violent, maybe more so then OTL.

Then it would depend how well Shogunate handle the challenge. What Restoration allowed, is to make changes quickly. Shogunate could only evolve, by it's nature remaining more conservative. Still if it could evolve just fast enough and ably enough and successfully put down inevitable han uprisings it could both survive into 20th century and transform in more or less modern state. If, for example, Tokugawa Yoshinobu became Shogun earlier (in 1858, succeeding Iesada, like was one of the plans) he could lead the reforms, being much more capable Shogun then his several predecessors. Despite all the weaknesses Shogunate with a capable Shogun in its head would hold enough prestige and authority to pull it through, though without guarantee. And it might meet different challenges later.

I see this Japan, at least for a time, as less stable internally, as Shogunate would had much more trouble to abolish hans, then Meiji did, unless there would be a big civil war which in itself hardly improve stability. With much more feudal features remaining, it would probably develop more slowly, but is still would industrialize as the capital was there and technology still would be supplied by West (maybe more French influence there, though they supported Shogun OTL mostly due to US/UK siding with hans.
On the plus side this Japan would probably be less expansionist, in deed if not in rhetoric.

It would be interesting to see if post-Yoshinobu Shoguns would remain hereditary Tokugawa or develop in some prime-minister/chancellor form. It is most certainly that Emperor would remain the Head of the state in name like he used to. Successful Shogunate could not completely ignore him.
 
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