What is the probability of Germany conquering Malta
- Thread starter Outcast
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Deleted member 1487
Depending on when it was launched, it would have been virtually certain that the Axis, the Italians would have been heavily involved especially their Navy and Marines, would have conquered Malta. At some points in 1940-1941 the island was so heavily suppressed that it couldn't respond and just waited for the next aerial bombardment.
The question was will. What would the cost be? Probably high. Would the cost be worth the benefits? In the long run based on how the war played out OTL, yes. But the Axis didn't think it would be necessary to take it, because Rommel, as they thought, was just about the take Egypt and Malta would have just starved with a fallen Egypt, making invasion unnecessary.
Of course that's not what happened, so the POD would have been that the Axis leadership halts Rommel from invading Egypt because of supplies and refused to allow Rommel to appropriate the interdicting air assets bombing Malta. From then on, its obvious that the Axis needs to plan for a long campaign, because the Axis is not going to win by conquering. So they will need to take Malta to prevent it from becoming a base against their supply lines.
The Axis would have a better time of it from 1942-1943, when Malta was actually used to really hurt the Axis, but the end is going to be the same, just perhaps the campaign lasting longer and more Axis forces escaping, but this is not guaranteed.
Yes, but during an assault on Malta the Axis would be able to count on air support, including single engined fighters & Stukas. So the RN will have to be careful with it's ships, even more so if the RM becomes more daring while under air cover. Though I do think that the German and Italian paratrooper units used in the assault will need at least half a year if not longer to be rebuild to full strength. The LW & RA will also suffer considerable losses, though probably not too horrifying since the RAF on Malta should be quickly overwhelmed, same for the FAA.
Malta was a damn near close run thing. British forces were quite considerable and at their peak you're talking 3 infantry brigades for mobile defence each including (more or less) 1 bn of the KOMR (4 companies each with 3 rifle and 1 Vickers MMG platoon) as well as the usual 2-3 regular line bns. Others -2 AA brigades (around 120 or so heavy AA guns and over 200 Bofors, plus searchlights and radar), coastal artillery boasted lots of 9.2in guns, plus lots of 6pdr QF anti MTB positions. One sqdn of tanks/armoured cars (not much at all) There was ONE defence regiment of the RA with field and AT batteries, lots of engineers and so on, finally also several marines. RAF had some lewis MG's at Hal Far and Luqa for what they're worth along with a few Gladiator biplanes.
So to be successful in an assault means the axis need at least 5 assault divisions and expect to lose at least 2 divisions, although for succesful assault you also need overwhelming sea and airpower (certainly had the latter at most points)-Methinks it would have been feasible but only just-its hellishly difficult to do large scale combined ops.
So to be successful in an assault means the axis need at least 5 assault divisions and expect to lose at least 2 divisions, although for succesful assault you also need overwhelming sea and airpower (certainly had the latter at most points)-Methinks it would have been feasible but only just-its hellishly difficult to do large scale combined ops.
The problem is though that the Allies will also be able to count on air support, something they didn't have at Crete and is a death sentence for many of the Axis paratroops.
If the Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica/Marina could have kept the Royal Navy away from Malta then invasion would be pointless, they could have simply starved the island out.
True, but Sicily can hold a lot more aircraft than Malta + 1-3 carriers. Also, "the RN having to be careful" means just that, not that it can't operate near Malta.
Pangur
Donor
In would come at this slightly differently - Instead of attacking Crete they go after Malta in 1941. The German paras are still intact and as pointed out earlier they would have had a lot of what we would now call CAS. Could they will - yes, taken dire losses yes. It would also have been more productive to the German war effort
Even a limited Allied air presence would probably cause the airborne landings to fall into chaos. As in OTL, the Axis can't establish air superiority over the island, if they could then invasion would be unnecessary.
Then an amphibious landing will probably end in disaster.