What is the plausibility of these events occurring in succession?

[Deleted member 123260]

I was thinking about writing a timeline in which these events occur but I want to know if they're plausible. Here are the events:

1. Ancient Persians beat and conquer the ancient Greeks

2. Carthage beats and replaces Rome as the most culturally influential empire

3. If there is anything resembling the Crisis of the Third Century, the equivalent Palmyrene Empire surivives and prospers.

All in one timeline. Is this even possible? Should I waste my time writing this TL?

 

[Mike Stearns]

The Persians successfully subjugating the Greeks probably butterflies the rest of your chain of events.

 

[Deleted member 123260]

The Persians successfully subjugating the Greeks probably butterflies the rest of your chain of events.

Wasn't Carthage (or the Phoenicians at least) already existing during this time period?

 

[StrikeEcho]

Wasn't Carthage (or the Phoenicians at least) already existing during this time period?

I mean with Ancient Persia controlling Greece, it's more likely for the Persians to be the dominant cultural force in the region. And the fall of Greece and no subsequent Hellenic age, may butterfly Rome's rise to power completely.

 

[Marc]

Well if they were truly independent events, you just multiply the probabilities of each A% x B% x C% and so on. But they really aren't independents since the occurrence of event A may change B.
It's closer to conditional probabilities where if A occurs it changes the conditions of B. The often given example is drawing two Aces from a randomized deck. First draw is 4/52 and if you draw an Ace, the second is 3/51; again multiply the probabilities.
As you can imagine, it actually gets a lot more complicated trying to do some historical mathematics.
Which is dry gulch way of saying that anytime you speculate on what if A and B and N happens, you're essentially throwing out plausibility. But plausible isn't needed to be entertaining, just some internal logic and the right hooks on history.

 

[galanx]

I'm a bit of a purist- any ATL should have a single POD; other events, however implausible, should be derived from that. For example, the defeat of Rome by Carthage should be shown to follow from the defeat of Greece by Persia e.g.
fleeing Greeks set up colony which supplies military muscle to Carthage.

 

[Deleted member 123260]

I mean with Ancient Persia controlling Greece, it's more likely for the Persians to be the dominant cultural force in the region. And the fall of Greece and no subsequent Hellenic age, may butterfly Rome's rise to power completely.

But what of Carthage? And Persia will fall eventually if not due to internal issues.

 

[wcv215]

2. Carthage beats and replaces Rome as the most culturally influential empire

3. If there is anything resembling the Crisis of the Third Century, the equivalent Palmyrene Empire surivives and prospers.

The Palmyrene Empire was a direct breakoff of Rome. Even accepting that Persia conquering Greece sees the Punic Wars still happen, which is doubtful but possible under some circumstances, the destruction of Rome by Carthage, or even just confining Rome to Italy, completely butterflies away the Crisis of the Third Century.