What is the optimal offensive course of action for Germany in 1916?

What is the optimal offensive course of action (COA) for Germany in 1916?

  • a) Verdun as in OTL

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • b) Verdun as intended originally – a place to maximize the exchange ratio

    Votes: 12 18.8%
  • c) Verdun as a more traditional offensive seeking an operational breakthrough

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • d) Offensive in the east versus Russia

    Votes: 25 39.1%
  • e) Offensive in the south against Italy

    Votes: 18 28.1%
  • f) Defense and counterattack only

    Votes: 5 7.8%

  • Total voters
    64
Good points.
Anyhow Italy would only require a few divs. esp if the Germans aren't neck deep in Verdun and somme.
The somme was bad for the Germans due to their counter attacking. If the Germans accept small territorial loses then it doesn't cost them much.
As for knocking Italy out, I feel a small army of 10 divs.or so could knock them out of the war.

Of course there's no reason the British and French couldn't reinforce the Italians (especially if less pressed on the western front) if they look in trouble as the did in 1917.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Of course there's no reason the British and French couldn't reinforce the Italians (especially if less pressed on the western front) if they look in trouble as the did in 1917.
They dis and could. But that'd put the pressure on that front and let the Germans to make that front the priority. they'd still be able to knock Italy out, as the Ent brings in divs, so can the Germans. Thing is they could just concrete on womping the Italians. While Makin the French and British attack.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Lets say that Italy is knocked out in 1916. This lets CP win the Balkans as well in short order. So 2 fronts eliminated with CP victory about the same time. What would be the moral effects for the rest of the entente? Could this speed up the collapse of Russia? Would Romania still be in the war? how would the french react?

Absolute best case for Central Powers in Italy is taking Poe River valley in 1916. This is border line ASB but possible with enough Entente errors. Realistic best case scenario would be taking maybe 1/3 of Poe River valley before British reinforcements block the advance at some terrain feature.

So handwavium the unlikeliness of the decision to attack and series of blunders, here is roughly what ATL looks like.

  • Over winter, Germans decide Italy is weak link. Probably also look at warmer weather in Italy and flooding in Flanders.
  • Feb 1, instead of Verdun a grand offensive into Italy is launched. Mostly German troops.
  • By April 1, offensive is bogged down due to British and maybe French rushing troops to area. Interior lines of supply and communications work for Entente too.
  • Little bit after this French and Russian will launch big attacks. Now for CP to be ok, the A-H needs to have left enough troops in east to bog down Russian offensive to a blah attack for little gain. Flanders is flooded and British were taking longest to get ready, so Somme type attack is months after OTL. French launch attacks, Germans will have to hold. Germans have to also hold as OTL second phase of Brusilov is launched against Germans. OTL successful attacks were diversionary attacks in the plan.

Now this all looks pretty good. Might look better than OTL to you. However, it is not really except I made the Busilov offensive in the east fail which is really unrelated to this POD. In reality, the Brusilov works, and A-H will never again launch an offensive attack without German help. And if USW is resumed and USA still enters war, Germany still lose the war in Flanders. What really changes here is that the French don't have Verdun which had such large political impacts in post-war French politics. And Italy being crushed by Germany and losing a few field armies to encirclement or attrition (few more field armies than OTL) has huge impacts on Italian politics.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
By 1917 with all the things mentioned occurring I think you could be looking at Russia collapsing at the beginning of 1917. Even half the troops committed to Italy being re-routed to the east would result in massive territorial gains by the German Empire. This means an earlier "April" offensive, before significant US troops had arrived in Europe if the US had entered the war at all.

All in all, I could see a German and CP victory in late 1917 with the aforementioned conditions.

Russia is unlikely to break this fast. It was the poor agricultural output in Fall 1917 that lead to lack of food in winter that broke Russian Empire. Nothing happening here will really change the food shortage that much. Might move up the 'running out of food' moment up by few weeks, maybe month. And moving up Tsar losing power will not move up Russia leaving war a year earlier. Not enough causality here.
 
Absolute best case for Central Powers in Italy is taking Poe River valley in 1916. This is border line ASB but possible with enough Entente errors. Realistic best case scenario would be taking maybe 1/3 of Poe River valley before British reinforcements block the advance at some terrain feature.

So handwavium the unlikeliness of the decision to attack and series of blunders, here is roughly what ATL looks like.

  • Over winter, Germans decide Italy is weak link. Probably also look at warmer weather in Italy and flooding in Flanders.
  • Feb 1, instead of Verdun a grand offensive into Italy is launched. Mostly German troops.
  • By April 1, offensive is bogged down due to British and maybe French rushing troops to area. Interior lines of supply and communications work for Entente too.
  • Little bit after this French and Russian will launch big attacks. Now for CP to be ok, the A-H needs to have left enough troops in east to bog down Russian offensive to a blah attack for little gain. Flanders is flooded and British were taking longest to get ready, so Somme type attack is months after OTL. French launch attacks, Germans will have to hold. Germans have to also hold as OTL second phase of Brusilov is launched against Germans. OTL successful attacks were diversionary attacks in the plan.

Now this all looks pretty good. Might look better than OTL to you. However, it is not really except I made the Busilov offensive in the east fail which is really unrelated to this POD. In reality, the Brusilov works, and A-H will never again launch an offensive attack without German help. And if USW is resumed and USA still enters war, Germany still lose the war in Flanders. What really changes here is that the French don't have Verdun which had such large political impacts in post-war French politics. And Italy being crushed by Germany and losing a few field armies to encirclement or attrition (few more field armies than OTL) has huge impacts on Italian politics.

If Italian offensive is mostly german as you assume than Austria didnt strip the east of troops - or at least not that much. Could be enough to stop Brusilov.
Also, seeing the competence level of the italian leadership I think they are the perfect people for the job of making all the errors you shouldnt make. And as italian moral was already pretty low this might be enough.

And as a question, what if the british and the french decide to help the italians by speeding up the somme offensive in hopes of forcing the germans to send their troops back to the western front?
 
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