What is the best result the Western Allies can achieve after Pearl Harbour?

I think the very first thing I'd do is stop this stupid little regatta.

MapB1941-SEAsia-ForceZ.GIF


WTF was Phillips doing trolling around off Vietnam with no air cover or recon!?
The lack of a carrier wasn't Phillip's fault, but I've never understood why he didn't use his eight Shagbats to reconnoiter up the coast, while keeping his heavy ships well south.
 
The lack of a carrier wasn't Phillip's fault

No it wasn't his fault, but he shouldn't have handled his ships as if he had the KB at his back. He should have hugged the coast where these was at least some aircraft and other things to occupy the Japanese attention as well as providing cover to at least one flank due to lack of sea room for the IJN.

but I've never understood why he didn't use his eight Shagbats to reconnoiter up the coast, while keeping his heavy ships well south

'Incompetent dick' leaps to mind.
 
No it wasn't his fault, but he shouldn't have handled his ships as if he had the KB at his back. He should have hugged the coast where these was at least some aircraft and other things to occupy the Japanese attention as well as providing cover to at least one flank due to lack of sea room for the IJN.
The RAF did come very close to saving him, by providing the fighter cover they'd promised. Had the Buffaloes arrived in time, the unescorted IJA/N raid would have been broken up, and Phillips would have attacked the IJA/N troop ships.
 

CalBear

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OTL pretty much covers it.

Fascism is wiped out. WAllied casualties are, compared to OTL WW I were somewhat lower, despite the much greater total death toll (~34%) overall for WW II.

The Japanese try and fail in the Lunge South, the WAlles will wind up facing the Japanese on mainland Asia in large numbers. That is going to increase casualties, especially Commonwealth/British Empire losses. IOTL the Japanese over extended and the WAllies, primarily the U.S. in the Pacific and the British/Commonwealth in SW Asia chopped them to pieces with relatively low losses.

In the ETO the WAllies took less than half the losses suffered on the Western Front by the British Empire/Commonwealth & U.S. Add in France and the figures become remarkable. WW I losses are close to triple those of WW I (for France the difference is 5:1).
 
The RAF did come very close to saving him, by providing the fighter cover they'd promised. Had the Buffaloes arrived in time, the unescorted IJA/N raid would have been broken up, and Phillips would have attacked the IJA/N troop ships.

By then he'd been sighted by 2 different IJN subs and come within 5 miles of an IJN heavy cruiser force, I'm amazed he lasted long enough to get attacked by aircraft.
 
By then he'd been sighted by 2 different IJN subs and come within 5 miles of an IJN heavy cruiser force, I'm amazed he lasted long enough to get attacked by aircraft.
He's got four destroyers to deal with subs and if he can avoid the Long Lances, PoW and Repulse should have good odds against IJN CAs.

That said, IMO, Force Z, even with carrier(s) should never have been sent to Singapore, but should have stayed at Ceylon.
 
As the person pointed above the British never should have deployed that ramshackle task force to Singapore, Force Z was seriously short of warships and could barely be called a force at all!. If Whitehall had taken Malaya more seriously and considered the strategic environment of the day (and a better commander) then I have no doubt they could have defeated the 30,000 enemy troops. I still remember a British author in a 90's documentary tried to blame the Australians of all people, because of the Imperial defeat, which was entirely because of Percival's incompetence.
 
I think the very first thing I'd do is stop this stupid little regatta.

MapB1941-SEAsia-ForceZ.GIF


WTF was Phillips doing trolling around off Vietnam with no air cover or recon!? If Force Z was needed then it should have gone close to the coast directly to where the reports of landing were, if not it should have waited for the arrival of HMS Exeter and HMAS Hobart and their destroyers. Even if Malaya still fell Force Z could have been at the Battle of Java Sea and caused serious damage to the IJN forces there.

There were also a division of Asiatic Fleet Destroyers in the NEI, enroute to bolster Phillip's destroyer screen
 
With or without hindsight?

With hindsight to improve strategic judgment (it's more fun) but without using "special knowledge" that no one then could have had. (I.e. fixing BAMS because the Germans were reading it. We know that now; Rodger Winn strongly suspected it then; but no one on the Allied side had actionable knowledge then. Or moving Queen Elizabeth and Valiant out of Alexandria to evade the 12/19/41 frogman attack.)


There are however strategic decisions which could have been made differently then and in hindsight should have been. So, for Europe:
  • Do whatever is necessary to blockade North Africa, and totally cut off Axis supplies. This will be up-front expensive in ships (we'll probably lose several cruisers and a flock of destroyers) but enormously less costly than another year of fighting in North Africa.
  • The Battle of the Atlantic is not yet won; the success of late 1941 could collapse if the Germans upgrade the Enigma used by U-boats (which is what happened OTL). Prepare for that possibility.
    • Start building lots of escort carriers now. A few were coming out then (Audacity went into service in September 1941; her planes shot down seven Fw 200 Condors and sank a U-boat before she was sunk in December), but mass production was a year away. Start converting any usable ships as fast as possible.
    • Allocate all available VLR aircraft to ASW in the Atlantic (that are not employed in the Pacific).
  • Large-scale political infiltration campaigns directed at Vichy France, the French colonies including North Africa, and Axis ally states, including Italy. Use persuasion, bribery, even blackmail to promote a faction that wants to get out of the Axis and join the Allied bandwagon. There are lots of opportunists, trimmers, and grafters to be bought with money or future political favors; and also genuine patriots who can be persuaded their nation's interests lie with the Allies. (These sets overlap.) Paying a Vichy general a million dollars under the table and promising him post-war "hero" status is cheaper than fighting even a small campaign. Getting Bulgaria or Romania to flip early would be worth a lot.
  • Work for and prepare for possible Italian surrender. (We know now it would happen; it was at least imaginable in 1941.) Thus, when it does happen, be prepared to seize as many Italian-held key points as possible - the Dodecanese, Corfu, ports in Albania - as well as Italy, thereby gaining beachheads in the Balkans without having to do amphibious attacks.
  • Contact the Schwarz Kapelle, and collaborate with them on killing Hitler, overthrowing the Nazis, and getting Germany to surrender. The first two they want as much as the Allies do. The Allies can demand surrender without implicitly threatening Morgenthau Plan-type Carthaginian terms, and still insist on German occupation and complete, permanent disarmament. If the SK won't deal - the Allies still bomb Germany into ruins and kill millions of German soldiers. They'll cave a lot earlier than Hitler would. (Note: if Stalin objects, tell him to stuff it where the sun don't shine. He openly supported Hitler for years - he has no standing to complain about anyone else's dealings with other non-Nazi Germans.)
  • While we're at at: make further Lend-Lease aid conditional on Stalin's public pledge (published in the Soviet state media) to honor all 1939 boundaries. The Western Allies were fairly soft-headed about the USSR (Harry Hopkins wrote in his diary that Stalin's rule was essential to peace and democracy in Russia), but the evidence was there for realism. In hindsight, this evidence should have been collated and properly analyzed, and appropriate hard-harded policies adopted. Offer joint occupation of Germany and other Axis countries (the occupation forces and officials to be 1/3 British, 1/3 American, 1/3 Soviet).
With these policies and strategies in place - Italy surrenders in early 1943, the Nazis probably fall in mid-1943, the rest of the Axis bails out, and Germany surrenders in late 1943/early 1944.
  • Do whatever is possible to prevent the fall of Burma; that may include evacuating troops from Malaya to Burma. This will prevent a major Allied defeat in Burma, but more importantly, it will allow the Allies to supply China far more effectively. See below for the importance of this.

I'll have to finish this later.

OK, continuing...
  • Follow OTL's general strategy in the Pacific; there really isn't much to do better without using "special knowledge". Maybe fix the US torpedo problem sooner; it could have been recognized much earlier.
  • OK, re China. If the Allies hold Burma, that allows war materiel to reach China without the enormous cost of flying "over the Hump". It also allows heavier equipment to be delivered, included jeeps, trucks, and even light tanks. And a corps or so of American troops; some as "cadre" to stiffen Chinese forces, some as "hammers" to deliver hard strikes against Japanese forces. Lean on Chiang as needed: if the RoC isn't seen as defeating the Japanese, the RoC will lose China - and that is perhaps the most important outcome of the war, though really a post-war consequence.
  • Meanwhile, the British, having avoided disaster in Burma and not engaged in North Africa after mid-1942, should have the resources to counter-attack from Burma into Malaya in 1943; and to drive across Thailand to Indochina.

ISTM that Japanese troops were highly effective as light infantry and in die-hard defense of congested terrain (mountains, jungles, islands). But in more conventional warfare, larger scale battles of maneuver, they were very vulnerable. "Heavy" forces (e.g. American/Soviet forces with tanks and a full suite of infantry support weapons) could smash them. That's what would happen in the Asian mainland theaters.

By mid-1944, the US will be in the Marianas (as OTL), but the British and Chinese could be approaching the South China Sea. That exposes the core of the Japanese conquests, and allows the Allies to cut off Japan's oil from the East Indies. The Philippines should fall rapidly, allowing US aid to reach China directly. By the end of 1944, the Chinese should have regained Nanking and Shanghai, and be moving on Peking , while the US takes the Ryukyus and the British clean out the Indies.

The US and Britain tell Stalin to keep his hands off East Asia; if he's a good boy, the USSR will get Karafuto (southern Sakhalin) and the Kurils for nothing.

The war ends a year earlier in Europe; possibly several months earlier in the Pacific. The Bomb won't be ready any sooner; what else might make Japan surrender? Perhaps the threat of invasion with Chinese troops, who will be available. The hard-liners' last fantasy was that on Japanese soil, they could stage really big banzai attacks and kill enough Americans to shock the US into making peace. That won't work with China.

Bottom line:

In Europe, earlier total defeat of the Axis and probably substantially reduced Nazi murders. The Soviet "bloc" frontier in Europe will be well east of OTL. ("Bloc" in quotes because the USSR will not have satellites.) The Soviets get presence in more of Europe than OTL (as 1/3 occupiers of all Germany and perhaps Italy), but they don't get control of the areas they took over OTL, and their meddling will fail IMO.

In Asia, earlier total defeat of Japan, no Soviet occupation of Manchuria and North Korea, and (one hopes) the RoC in position to defeat Communist rebellion after the war. If China is not Communist, the Cold War will be much more favorable to the US side. (Imagine Chinese-American bases in Sinkiang.)
What happens later is not in the remit of the OP.
 
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  • Do whatever is possible to prevent the fall of Burma; that may include evacuating troops from Malaya to Burma. This will prevent a major Allied defeat in Burma, but more importantly, it will allow the Allies to supply China far more effectively. See below for the importance of this.

This may be a double edged sword - it will result in US pressure to divert supplies to China, where they may not be well used.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I looked into the timings of the relief of Wake years ago, I can't remember now but I don't know if it was possible with tight timings.

The timing appears to work, but it would have been one carrier versus two Japanese carriers, so with Nimitz in charge, I doubt he would take this risk.

A week or so of time was lost due to Kimmel removal, but this is politically unavoidable.


I think the very first thing I'd do is stop this stupid little regatta.

MapB1941-SEAsia-ForceZ.GIF


WTF was Phillips doing trolling around off Vietnam with no air cover or recon!? If Force Z was needed then it should have gone close to the coast directly to where the reports of landing were, if not it should have waited for the arrival of HMS Exeter and HMAS Hobart and their destroyers. Even if Malaya still fell Force Z could have been at the Battle of Java Sea and caused serious damage to the IJN forces there.

Based on the intel he had, he was largely outside of Japanese land based aircraft range. He also underestimated the effectiveness of Japanese naval aviation. How many BB had been sunk at sea by air power alone at this point?

Try to imagine that he was right, but for the wrong reason. There is a major storm over the Japanese airfields that grounds the plains. If Phillips can get his ships into the landing convoys, he will likely save Singapore. If he engages the covering surface task forces, he might get the landing convoys to retreat. Think Coral Sea. It appears to be a risk worth taking. Assuming he does not attack north but retreats to a safer harbor, when will he next get a big chance to help win the war?
 
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I think he assumed that as the RAF didn't have any torpedo bombers with that range, the Japanese won't either, so all he need be concerned with was level-bombing.
 
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