What is the best possible German performance against the Soviet Union?

It's pretty much impossible (or at least extremely difficult) to have a POD after Operation Barbarossa is launched that could lead to a German victory over the Soviet Union. But that's not the point of this thread, basically what's the best the Germans can do with a POD after June 22nd, 1941 while still losing the war?
 
It's pretty much impossible (or at least extremely difficult) to have a POD after Operation Barbarossa is launched that could lead to a German victory over the Soviet Union. But that's not the point of this thread, basically what's the best the Germans can do with a POD after June 22nd, 1941 while still losing the war?

Well the claim is that they did extremely well already. There is a particular spot where the forum is littered with WI's: WHat if they went straight for Moscow instead of turning south towards Kiev.
Here is a variation of this one. Risky, but you want the best possible: How about instead they split their forces and actually succeeds both in closing the Kiev pocket and get a good piece of the way towards Moscow.
Then they can establish more forwards supplies and start a second typhoon very close to Moscow.
 

Angrybird

Banned
It's pretty much impossible (or at least extremely difficult) to have a POD after Operation Barbarossa is launched that could lead to a German victory over the Soviet Union. But that's not the point of this thread, basically what's the best the Germans can do with a POD after June 22nd, 1941 while still losing the war?

If the WAllies dont supply the USSR with LL due to their anti-communist stance - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans change their strategy and go for Moscow in 1941 without putting AGC on hold for 2 months - the Germans will do better.

If Hiter doesnt split Army Group A+B and sends them both against Stalingrad - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans treat the population better - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans cancel Citadel and conduct a flexible defence after March 1943 - the Germans will do better
 
I think a Nazi victory over the USSR would be possible, but only under a very specific set of circumstances that arise not from one POD, but several. What it would essentially boil down to is this: Hitler acts smarter then he did OTL, and Stalin acts dumber. Hitler starts Barbarossa earlier in the year, without getting involved in Mussolini's misadventures in the Mediterranean. Also, he would need extra soldiers (not sure where those would come from, increased conscription, perhaps?). That way, if a situation like the Kiev Pocket arises, German troops can afford to encircle them and continue the advance anyway. Combining those two factors, Moscow could be taken. But they would still eventually lose regardless unless Stalin chooses to make some colossal blunders. Maybe in the wake of a Fall of Moscow, he might implement another series of purges against the military, eliminating whatever competent leadership remained. Or maybe he dies of an inconvenient health issue. Seeing as how Stalin was the one thing holding the Soviet government together at the time, his absence could lead to a very poorly-timed power struggle among the Soviet leadership (i.e., Beria/NKVD vs Red Army). And this would all need to happen relatively early in the fighting, with the Germans advancing beyond their OTL high-water mark by the winter of 1942-3 by the latest. Otherwise, it becomes a war of attrition the Germans could never hope to win. OTL, it may have taken the Soviets a while to get in gear, but once they did they were unstoppable. Other situations are possible too, but they're more abstract. A less industrialized USSR, a Nazi ideology that's more willing to tolerate various Eastern European nationalities, especially those ones which had little love for the Soviets (Ukrainians, Baltic states, etc.) So yes, Nazi victory was theoretically possible, but it was a very small window of opportunity that relied on too many factors that were out of the German Army's hands. If it wasn't too late already by winter 1941-2, victory was doomed by Spring 1943.
 
If the WAllies dont supply the USSR with LL due to their anti-communist stance - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans change their strategy and go for Moscow in 1941 without putting AGC on hold for 2 months - the Germans will do better.

If Hiter doesnt split Army Group A+B and sends them both against Stalingrad - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans treat the population better - the Germans will do better.

If the Germans cancel Citadel and conduct a flexible defence after March 1943 - the Germans will do better

You can't bet on your opponent to ever make the worse decisions and mistakes. Nazi Germany already was extremely lucky that Stalin made incredible mistakes in the great purge (almost completely disorganizing his army).

And then you have a paradox. To obtain better results, you need Germany not to be run by crazy nazi criminals. But if Germany had not been run by nazis, it would not have attacked the USSR.

The nazi program contained to a very large extent the seeds of its own defeat against the USSR. The nazi program was to conquer a Lebensraum at the expense of Slavs. They wanted to take their lands, exterminate or expell east of Ural 70% of them, and turn the 30% remaining into slaves of the so-called superior german race.

To win this war, Germany should have aimed at destroying the communist tyranny by freeing the people of western USSR of the communist criminal tyranny, instead of aiming at destroying the Slavs.

Then the soviet regime would probably quickly have fallen.

But this just could not be a program for the nazi criminal tyranny.
 
Risky, but you want the best possible: How about instead they split their forces and actually succeeds both in closing the Kiev pocket and get a good piece of the way towards Moscow.
Then they can establish more forwards supplies and start a second typhoon very close to Moscow.

They fail in both. The forces from the OTL Kiev pocket ends up escaping east, to fight another day, the panzers (presumably Guderian) fail to create a breakthrough towards Moscow due to logistic considerations. So it ends up worse than OTL.
 
They fail in both. The forces from the OTL Kiev pocket ends up escaping east, to fight another day, the panzers (presumably Guderian) fail to create a breakthrough towards Moscow due to logistic considerations. So it ends up worse than OTL.

Well that's why its a risky thing, but its also an easy claim to say they both fail.
As I remember the push south went fairly smooth except it was a long way there and back again. Wonder how much was facing them towards Moscow. There's an other thread on this right now.

I wonder why I have not been nuked yet:rolleyes:.
 
Most of the possible PoDs for this really lay on the Soviet side of the conflict. Here is one: Stalin slips on some frozen ice in Moscow in October 1941 and snaps his neck. The rest of the State Defense Committee fails to come together and immediately fall into a power struggle that cripples the Soviet's war effort.
 
The Nazis don't have to not be Nazis, but they have to be a little more flexible/pragmatic. Until the USSR is defeated, don't crap all over the western Slavs - sure places that resist, Communist infrastructure/personnel feel free...but don't dump on the "average" Ukrainian or Byelorussian. You can still do whatever you want to the Jews in areas you overrun, the locals are uninterested at best and very often enthusiastic. Enlist anti-communist Ukrainians as local auxiliaries to hunt down red partisans etc - small arms, mortars are all they need. Of course, once victory has been achieved the screws can be tightened at will.

Realize that you need to take Moscow is the number one priority. Take Moscow and you disrupt rail traffic like crazy, disrupt the bureaucracy that makes the country run etc. Do better logistic planning! Think about what you need to fight in cold weather like clothes, boots, lubricants etc and how do you deal with the rasputitsa. RAILROADS!! Plan to deal with the re-gauging of Soviet RRs from 6 ft to 4'8 1/2" standard. Nothing moves in the USSR if not by rail, especially during the mud season.

Of course things like don't retreat orders, wasted city fighting etc need to be eliminated. If possible, think strategically and try and do whatever you can with the Luftwaffe to slow down the transfer of the production facilities to the east. Every bit of delay here is very valuable.
 
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