What is the best peace treaty Germany could get at Barbarossa?

We know Stalin was willing to give quite huge concessions to Germany like a Brest Litovsk redux, and this was just when Barbarossa was starting.

Lets suppose Hitler has an accident or something at the absolute best of operation Barbarossa (I dont know if this was when the Germans were at the gates of Moscow and apparently there were like only 20,000 soviet troops to guard it or it was another point) and a saner leadership (possibly Goring) takes over and realize that an all out war against the Soviet Union is unwinnable and the best they can do is to capitalize on their victories to give them the greatest possibly advantadges against Britain.

What is the absolute best treaty Germany could get Stalin to sign? I was thinking something like Brest Litovsk but with greater territorial loss for the USSR and monthly oil tributes. But I dont know.

What is the best you can think about? What effects would it have in the west?
 
If I was Germany and wanted a quick win against the USSR here would be my proposal to Stalin in August/September time frame.

  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be evacuated
  • USSR would cede to Romania all of Moldova
  • USSR would cede to Germany all of occupied Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and Crimea.
  • Germany would sign a 10 year non-aggression pact with the USSR
I wouldn't get involved in any resource tributes or anything like that. This is to expand Germany to an economic size that would be somewhat comparable with the US. I would think that those gains would make Germany self sufficient in everything except oil. (or pretty close).

Don't think Stalin would go for this, but you never know.
 
Anyone else?
1) Why would the USSR be interested in the German's signing yet another "non-aggression pact with the USSR" right after the Germans blatantly violated the first one and launched an unprovoked invasion?
2) Respectfully, making a peace with the USSR that did not involve the USSR shipping significant quantities of oil to Germany on a very regular basis (as occurred before the invasion, when the USSR shipped Germany large quantities of oil and other raw material via rail in exchange for shipments of complex machines and finished goods from Germany) such a peace would not make any sense. Germany needed oil to survive and expand during World War 2 (similar to Japan).

That said, I agree with Tonrich that an August/September time frame would be the ideal time to make peace with the Soviet Union before General Winter entered the war on the Russian's side. I think something similar to Brest-Litovsk could be worked out, as long as the USSR agreed to again start shipping large quantities of oil and other raw materials to Germany. If Germany had truly sane and rational leadership, they might even agree to terms similar to those that preceded the invasion, oil and other raw materials from the USSR in exchange for machinery and finished goods from Germany.
 
1) Why would the USSR be interested in the German's signing yet another "non-aggression pact with the USSR" right after the Germans blatantly violated the first one and launched an unprovoked invasion?
2) Respectfully, making a peace with the USSR that did not involve the USSR shipping significant quantities of oil to Germany on a very regular basis (as occurred before the invasion, when the USSR shipped Germany large quantities of oil and other raw material via rail in exchange for shipments of complex machines and finished goods from Germany) such a peace would not make any sense. Germany needed oil to survive and expand during World War 2 (similar to Japan).

That said, I agree with Tonrich that an August/September time frame would be the ideal time to make peace with the Soviet Union before General Winter entered the war on the Russian's side. I think something similar to Brest-Litovsk could be worked out, as long as the USSR agreed to again start shipping large quantities of oil and other raw materials to Germany. If Germany had truly sane and rational leadership, they might even agree to terms similar to those that preceded the invasion, oil and other raw materials from the USSR in exchange for machinery and finished goods from Germany.

Maybe the non-aggression pact could use an international guarantor like the US? Or another country. Germany agrees certain sanctions will be imposed by the international community to whoever breaks the pact.
 
If I was Germany and wanted a quick win against the USSR here would be my proposal to Stalin in August/September time frame.

  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be evacuated
  • USSR would cede to Romania all of Moldova
  • USSR would cede to Germany all of occupied Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and Crimea.
  • Germany would sign a 10 year non-aggression pact with the USSR
I wouldn't get involved in any resource tributes or anything like that. This is to expand Germany to an economic size that would be somewhat comparable with the US. I would think that those gains would make Germany self sufficient in everything except oil. (or pretty close).

Don't think Stalin would go for this, but you never know.

He might go for it if the likely alternate seemed to be total defeat. Stalin might've made peace on those terms, hoping if Britain were steadfast and the US entered the war it would ultimately force Germany to commit the bulk of its forces in the West, so Stalin could stab the reich in the back just like he had been double crossed (in the process recouping his territorial losses).
 
There were offerings for a Brest Litovsk (which at the time was basically a save face surrender) and this was in the beginning of Barbarossa, let alone when it appeared the Germans might crush him.

But that wasn't going to be enough for Hitler. He was very pissed off about the USSR taking territory from Romania in 1940. My personal feeling is that single issue is what set Barbarossa in motion. Hitler also wanted "Lebensraum" so that Germany could have space for the ever growing population. He wasn't going to settle for only Poland at that point. He needed the raw materials from Kirvoy Rog and the Dnepropetrovsk area and also wanted to create space between the SU and his main source of oil in Ploesti. Those losses would hurt the SU economically and (in Hitler's mind) set them back enough that would allow him to finish on the Western front before Stalin could think about breaking the pact.
 
But that wasn't going to be enough for Hitler. He was very pissed off about the USSR taking territory from Romania in 1940. My personal feeling is that single issue is what set Barbarossa in motion. Hitler also wanted "Lebensraum" so that Germany could have space for the ever growing population. He wasn't going to settle for only Poland at that point. He needed the raw materials from Kirvoy Rog and the Dnepropetrovsk area and also wanted to create space between the SU and his main source of oil in Ploesti. Those losses would hurt the SU economically and (in Hitler's mind) set them back enough that would allow him to finish on the Western front before Stalin could think about breaking the pact.

In Rommania: Bukovinia area in particular seemed to annoy Hitler.

Agree with Kirvoy Rog and the Dnepropetrovsk area and the strategic materials, the wheat gown in the area, Hitler needs to physically secure Maikop intact, which although small compared to Baku and Grozny has a pretty decent oil production (undamaged). The Crimea and Kuban has to be secured for connectivity.

Everything else if up for negotiation and since Hitler doesn't own Maikop in August/September/October timeframe much might have to be given back in trade. Really northern an eastern Ukraine could be kept Soviet or given back. Minsk. Smolensk could be returned in exchange.
 
But that wasn't going to be enough for Hitler. He was very pissed off about the USSR taking territory from Romania in 1940. My personal feeling is that single issue is what set Barbarossa in motion. Hitler also wanted "Lebensraum" so that Germany could have space for the ever growing population. He wasn't going to settle for only Poland at that point. He needed the raw materials from Kirvoy Rog and the Dnepropetrovsk area and also wanted to create space between the SU and his main source of oil in Ploesti. Those losses would hurt the SU economically and (in Hitler's mind) set them back enough that would allow him to finish on the Western front before Stalin could think about breaking the pact.

Yes, Hitler wasnt willing to compromise, which is why he got his ass kicked. But Stalin was. My reply was in response to a post that claimed Stalin wasnt willing to compromise, which he was.
 
We know Stalin was willing to give quite huge concessions to Germany like a Brest Litovsk redux, and this was just when Barbarossa was starting.

What is the absolute best treaty Germany could get Stalin to sign? I was thinking something like Brest Litovsk but with greater territorial loss for the USSR and monthly oil tributes. But I dont know.

What is the best you can think about? What effects would it have in the west?

my view the less territory the better, to the Ural Mountains was vague concept without considering some of the realities of what that entailed.

(say Odessa to Orsha to Narva line and Crimea) and in north the entire Kola to Finland. have oil delivered over Black Sea.
 
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