What is the absolute best that the AXIS could do in North Africa .What happens after that .

mad orc

Banned
What if the German and Italian forces achieve all of their goals, get superbly lucky, their enemies make all the mistakes and they got the most decisive victory possible in NA .

What happens next .

Answer is an open sandbox .

Second question -How could the allies still win the war from here ?
 
What if the German and Italian forces achieve all of their goals, get superbly lucky, their enemies make all the mistakes and they got the most decisive victory possible in NA .

What happens next .

Answer is an open sandbox .

Second question -How could the allies still win the war from here ?

Erm, sorry, but that's OTL. Rommel was insanely lucky just to get as far as he did, namely 60 miles from Alexandria. Given the horrible constraints on supplies enforced by the geography of the area (one metalled road in Libya, one metalled road and a single-track railway in Egypt,) I'm still amazed that he achieved what he did. Hell, if it hadn't been for appalling British leadership (don't get me started on the emulation of the German battlegroups that splintered divisions to pieces) he would have lost in 1941.
 

hipper

Banned
What if the German and Italian forces achieve all of their goals, get superbly lucky, their enemies make all the mistakes and they got the most decisive victory possible in NA .

What happens next .

Answer is an open sandbox .

Second question -How could the allies still win the war from here ?

They get all the way to El Alemien.
The Russian Army captures Berlin in 1945

If they get all the way to The Persian Gulf
The Russian Army Captures Berlin in 1944
 
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With a POD of June 1941: A no Barbarossa scenario

a) A significant chunk of German air force is committed to the med (the rest stays in France). This is flying top cover for convoys, suppressing Malta, raiding Tobruk.
b) Malta and Tobruk falls in 1941
b) The Germans and Italian make a significant effort to expand the Italian light rail out of Benghazi torward Tobruk.
c) The Germans expand their light craft in the med significantly (MFPs and Seibel ferries, EBoats etc.) These are used to bring supplies closer to the front.
d) Italian navy gets a larger allotment of fuel.

Without the eastern front, by the beginning of 1942, the Germans have the ability to supply forward an extra panzer division, and an extra Italian motorized division (vs OTL 1942). This with extra air power available is able to take the Delta in 1942. Most of the British navy is moved to the red sea.

However the Axis don't have any hope at all of reaching the Persian Gulf or the Sudan, although they can dominate the eastern med.
 
what are the chances of the Axis capturing Malta? Maybe if Hitler didn't get so discouraged on paratroopers after Crete?

As for the OTL planned operation: Its not guaranteed, closer to 50/50. The British will know what is happening because of ULTRA, will commit their navy. There is a decent force on the Island. Except for the German paras, its an Italian operation.
 
As for the OTL planned operation: Its not guaranteed, closer to 50/50. The British will know what is happening because of ULTRA, will commit their navy. There is a decent force on the Island. Except for the German paras, its an Italian operation.
hmmm, an even roll of the dice? Just for argument's sake, let's say the Axis succeed and capture Malta... what next?
 
Malta captured early means all those carriers aren't devoted to resupply convoys and Club runs. Eagle not sunk and Indomitable not damaged in Pedestal. What happens to the carriers instead.
Wasp to Pacific in time for Midway?
Argus seems right for escorting PQ convoys.
RN fleet carriers to the Indian ocean or providing air support for some operation in the Eastern Med?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What if the German and Italian forces achieve all of their goals, get superbly lucky, their enemies make all the mistakes and they got the most decisive victory possible in NA .

What happens next .

Answer is an open sandbox .

Second question -How could the allies still win the war from here ?

Assuming you are not doing other major POD's. The Allies still win. Let's keep the forces in theater near OTL levels, so we don't end up with the other topic "What if the Afrika Korp fights on the eastern front?"

So I will start with better Italian planning and staff work, but not something like stockpiling supplies in Libya assuming the French will fall to Hitler quickly and Italy planned for it. We have had recent threads on this topic. What can Italy do?

  • Malta falls quickly once Italy joins the war.
  • Adequate lead time can be given to the Italian generals on Greece. The Greek operations can go well.
  • We can better supply, plan the operations in Italian East Africa. We can slow the UK down a good bit here.
  • Attacking across the Alps does not work well. At least to me, there is an open question of what can Italy do in the few weeks after it is clear France will fall if there are good contingency plans. Is something like taking Tunisia, Corsica or Crete realistic?
  • A well lead Italian forces can do most of what Rommel did, but with Italian forces plus maybe a little bit of German help. We have logistical issues here, so probably we end up with a better defended Sicily.
With all this, the Italians do better. I just don't see them holding Cairo for any length of time or much less taking the Suez. Maybe we can get the British Fleet to retreat to the Red Sea.

Now you said super lucky. Start with the base above, then lets look at really bad OTL performances. The defense of Singapore was a joke. The Japanese took with 1/3 of the troops. The USA in the PI allowed their air force to be largely destroyed on the ground. Or we can look at Japan at Midway. So what is super lucky. Italy attacks Tunisia before the fall of France. It works easily due to a jaw dropping set of mistakes by the French. British forces in the Med sortie to defend Tunisia, but things go badly and losses are really lopsided. Midway was 4:1. So make this 3:1 in capital ships, 2:1 in support ships. I guess super lucky might be Corsica working, since after all we are wanking the Italians. France makes peace. UK will still wipe out French fleet at some point, but French fleet gets some intel and this is actually a battle at sea where the UK loses some ships. Say trade capital ships 1:1. UK losses are enough that UK warships largely abandon central and eastern Med Sea. With better supplies, I guess the Italians/Germans can hold Cairo for a while and maybe have enough air power and naval forces to close Suez via mostly mines.

USA will likely still do Torch, but maybe 6 months later to use more forces. Better supplies, Maybe Tunisia can hold long enough against the USA to avoid any attacks on Italy. USA will still do D-Day about on time. Italy stays in war. War might last a few months longer since Germany will eventually move forces to slow Russians from Med area. I guess if USA puts a low enough priority on Africa, we might end war with stalemated lines somewhere in Algeria and Cairo falling in early 1945 to Allies.

Italians have really good military reputation ITTL, but not sure I have changed the larger war.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
As for the OTL planned operation: Its not guaranteed, closer to 50/50. The British will know what is happening because of ULTRA, will commit their navy. There is a decent force on the Island. Except for the German paras, its an Italian operation.

He has Italian being lucky. The Italians had one-time pads, so the critical message can be sent securely. Also, you can have things like more messages hand delivered. Or UK properly decodes but misinterprets the messages. Much like the UK saw Rommel order not to attack, so they withdrew forces. Then Rommel disobeyed orders.

Easy to write around this one.
 

mad orc

Banned
Assuming you are not doing other major POD's. The Allies still win. Let's keep the forces in theater near OTL levels, so we don't end up with the other topic "What if the Afrika Korp fights on the eastern front?"

So I will start with better Italian planning and staff work, but not something like stockpiling supplies in Libya assuming the French will fall to Hitler quickly and Italy planned for it. We have had recent threads on this topic. What can Italy do?

  • Malta falls quickly once Italy joins the war.
  • Adequate lead time can be given to the Italian generals on Greece. The Greek operations can go well.
  • We can better supply, plan the operations in Italian East Africa. We can slow the UK down a good bit here.
  • Attacking across the Alps does not work well. At least to me, there is an open question of what can Italy do in the few weeks after it is clear France will fall if there are good contingency plans. Is something like taking Tunisia, Corsica or Crete realistic?
  • A well lead Italian forces can do most of what Rommel did, but with Italian forces plus maybe a little bit of German help. We have logistical issues here, so probably we end up with a better defended Sicily.
With all this, the Italians do better. I just don't see them holding Cairo for any length of time or much less taking the Suez. Maybe we can get the British Fleet to retreat to the Red Sea.

Now you said super lucky. Start with the base above, then lets look at really bad OTL performances. The defense of Singapore was a joke. The Japanese took with 1/3 of the troops. The USA in the PI allowed their air force to be largely destroyed on the ground. Or we can look at Japan at Midway. So what is super lucky. Italy attacks Tunisia before the fall of France. It works easily due to a jaw dropping set of mistakes by the French. British forces in the Med sortie to defend Tunisia, but things go badly and losses are really lopsided. Midway was 4:1. So make this 3:1 in capital ships, 2:1 in support ships. I guess super lucky might be Corsica working, since after all we are wanking the Italians. France makes peace. UK will still wipe out French fleet at some point, but French fleet gets some intel and this is actually a battle at sea where the UK loses some ships. Say trade capital ships 1:1. UK losses are enough that UK warships largely abandon central and eastern Med Sea. With better supplies, I guess the Italians/Germans can hold Cairo for a while and maybe have enough air power and naval forces to close Suez via mostly mines.

USA will likely still do Torch, but maybe 6 months later to use more forces. Better supplies, Maybe Tunisia can hold long enough against the USA to avoid any attacks on Italy. USA will still do D-Day about on time. Italy stays in war. War might last a few months longer since Germany will eventually move forces to slow Russians from Med area. I guess if USA puts a low enough priority on Africa, we might end war with stalemated lines somewhere in Algeria and Cairo falling in early 1945 to Allies.

Italians have really good military reputation ITTL, but not sure I have changed the larger war.

Bravo my man , bravo, you have done exactly what i wished .
Thanks man .
 

hipper

Banned
what are the chances of the Axis capturing Malta? Maybe if Hitler didn't get so discouraged on paratroopers after Crete?

Untill France Surrenders The Italians are hilariously outnumbered in the Med. afterwards they are just outnumbered. The difficulty is that to defend any beachhead the Italian Navy has to fight a fleet action Against the . Mediteranian Fleet historically they had no appetite for this,

There is a short window in 1942 where the Italian Fleet had the numerical superiority but after July 1942 Malta had air superiority rendering an invasion unlikely.
 
Malta is overrated, the real problem is transport within Libya, particularly the lack of railways for efficient bulk transport and the Axis never bothered to do anything abouot this drastic shortage until early 1942 when they extended the Benghazi railway some 40km to Barce.

For a much better performance the Axis need to have a railway construction unit in place as soon as Rommel goes to Libya. If they had extended their rail lines from Tripoli and Benghazi westward from early 1941, even in fits and starts they would have been mitigating their worst supply problem and perhaps have reached Cairo and the Canal. If they do that they chase the British south into the Red Sea and then control the eastern Med.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Malta is overrated, the real problem is transport within Libya, particularly the lack of railways for efficient bulk transport and the Axis never bothered to do anything abouot this drastic shortage until early 1942 when they extended the Benghazi railway some 40km to Barce.

For a much better performance the Axis need to have a railway construction unit in place as soon as Rommel goes to Libya. If they had extended their rail lines from Tripoli and Benghazi westward from early 1941, even in fits and starts they would have been mitigating their worst supply problem and perhaps have reached Cairo and the Canal. If they do that they chase the British south into the Red Sea and then control the eastern Med.

They only had a 40kmi gap in their rail lines? If that is so, then that can be fixed in a month at war time construction rates. So say we have the Italians start building at a fast peace time rate in October 1939, the link can be finished by Christmas. Have the lucky Italians have supplies for extending it into Egypt, even if unrelated to the plans, and we see enough supplies for Rommel to operate. So it is starting to look like an easier ATL to write.

  • The real problem seems to be the flag officers and staff officers of the Italians. So we have a POD prewar where there is a little bit more cooperation between the Heer and the Italian Army.
  • After the war starts, the Germans send down some quality officers to help with planning. Let's make it Rommel and his staff since we are familiar with these leaders.
  • In October, RR construction starts.
  • For the rest of the Winter and Spring, the Germans help the Italians plan the attack plans on France. We get the plan to attack Tunisia. And the Malta plan.
  • Malta falls easily. No real luck needed here. There may be losses, but Malta falls. British execute plan and mentally largely pull back to defending Gibraltar.
  • Italy still comes in late, but the Tunisia plan works due to sheer luck or some major French mistake. Percival level errors. Basically, I put my thumb on the scale for the ATL.
  • Since Italy control the coastal cities and port of Tunisia, Italy gets Tunisia. Italy gives back the little bit of land it took in the French Alps. Otherwise things look a lot like OTL.
  • With the RR in place and Tunisia going early, I can largely skip the other lucky factors in my previous posts. It makes the ATL easier to write and people like familiarity in ATL's.
  • At some point, Rommel arrives in Libya with some additional German units. Probably less than OTL, but overall forces levels are higher since the Italians have taken fewer losses. With more speed, more supplies, Rommel does better and Cairo falls in first big push by Rommel. Italians are rapidly extending supply lines from Tunisia ports and Libyan ports towards Cairo. Merchant losses are much lower due the British having defined their fighting theater farther west and maybe the British losing a few more ships.
  • The Italian special forces still have successes in Alexander. At some point, the British panic a bit and the British Navy retreats to Port Said or Aden. Minefields and other light naval operations shut the Suez to surface traffic.
Now if one can just find a way for Hitler to beat Stalin or for Hitler to get a negotiatied peace, we have an Italian wank.
 
If the Axis improve and extend the Railway and use it to transport a lot more supplies doesnt that just make it a lovely long barely defendable target for the various Commando type units that were swanning around North Africa. You only have to look to the Hedjaz Railway in WWI to see how badly it could go for an Army dependant on a single track light railway and this time the attackers wont be on camels they will be driving Fords, Chevrolets, Fiats and Austins.

The Axis didnt just need a railway it needed a proper modern port near to but not too near the Libyan Egyptian border. Supplying a Division via a single track light railway is difficult supplying a Corps is just about do able with lots of Locos and rolling stock but an Army no its just not possible. See the time, money and resources thrown at the Persian Corridor supply line.

Another unique problem with the railway in Libya is the track guage of 950mm every bit of rolling stock had to be specially made there would have been no commercially available designs that could be ordered.
 
I don't see the Germans prioritizing (and it would be German steel made into rails, that would have to get shipped over to Libya to expand the narrow gauge railway from Benghazi.

In a no Barbarossa scenario, that can happen, otherwise the Germans are going to be rebuilding the Soviet rail net, adding sidings, etc, all their rail production is going to the Soviet Union (correctly).
 
They only had a 40kmi gap in their rail lines? If that is so, then that can be fixed in a month at war time construction rates.

No, there was a huge gap in the rail network, and the only wartime construction was done in mid 1942 to push the railway 110km long from Benghazi west by 40km.

220px-Rete_ferroviaria_Libia_Italiana.png


However if, by fair means and foul such as cannibalising the rail lines running south and west of Tripoli, the Axis began pushing the railhead further and further west from Tripoli they might be able to push it out to maybe 250km or even more from Tripoli during 1941 alone. This would make the boring but crucial task of bringing cargo the 1000km from Tripoli to Benghazi considerably easier and free up a significant portion of the limited truck fleet for tasks further forward. The same applies to Benghazi, if they extended the railway that extra 40km or even west in 1941 it gives their fixed logistic capabilities a much needed boost.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
No, there was a huge gap in the rail network, and the only wartime construction was done in mid 1942 to push the railway 110km long from Benghazi west by 40km.

220px-Rete_ferroviaria_Libia_Italiana.png


However if, by fair means and foul such as cannibalising the rail lines running south and west of Tripoli, the Axis began pushing the railhead further and further west from Tripoli they might be able to push it out to maybe 250km or even more from Tripoli during 1941 alone. This would make the boring but crucial task of bringing cargo the 1000km from Tripoli to Benghazi considerably easier and free up a significant portion of the limited truck fleet for tasks further forward. The same applies to Benghazi, if they extended the railway that extra 40km or even west in 1941 it gives their fixed logistic capabilities a much needed boost.

On multiple occasions in WW1, the British built RR at the rate of 1 mile per day. So 500 km per year is technically feasible. So looks like you could largely fix the Libyan logistic issues with a POD in late 1939. But I guess we would need Benny to be a better administrative and military mind.
 
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