Lost Freeway
Banned
Ah you got the hint. But the question is when will he betray?
You already told us...
What is Evil and Good?: A Three Way WW2
- Thread starter okmangeez
- Start date
You already told us...
Stalin won't have much to react too. Operation Pike would hardly damage Soviet oil production and the trend in regards to purges was that they were on their ending.
And this will really help the Soviet war effort,really
Operations in Iran and Turkey will actually be quite helpful. It will give the Soviets first hand experience in how modern war works and help gear their reform and rearmament along more realistic lines. That's more medium term though, in the short-term the Red Army's performance is gonna be... uneven. It partly depends on who he send and what he sends, as well as the logistical limitations of the region.
Deleted member 1487
That's one opinion. Baku was a uniquely vulnerable oil target and the single largest source of Soviet oil production; certainly the Soviets would be able to survive even with immense damage to Caucasian oil production due to sources in Central Russia and across the Caspian, but it would be a terrible blow to lose Baku. As it was with minimal bomber forces Gozny was wrecked by German bombing in 1942.
The inability of the Anglo-French bombers to put more then a few bombs even within miles of their targets speaks for itself.
Based on the analysis of people who had a consistently very poor track record in target selection and damage estimation in 1940 through to 1943. I'll say it again: contemporary assessments of effectiveness mean spit and mean even less if they're for a raid that wasn't even conducted.
If by a "minimal bomber forces" you mean more bombers then the Western Allies even allocated too Pike, flying from bases practically right on top of the field, in broad daylight, and by much more experienced and better trained crews. And even then, Grozny continued production.
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This looks interesting. From the description of the first chapter, it said that the US NEVER declared War in this scenario. So it makes me wonder if Japan will still make a move against the US. The situation in China is going to be interesting.
I look forward to seeing this develop.
I know it is probably ASB but with a three way WW2, seeing Japan trying to take a bite out of Russia would be cool.
I look forward to seeing this develop.
I know it is probably ASB but with a three way WW2, seeing Japan trying to take a bite out of Russia would be cool.
Oh please, effective damage is meaningless in this case, what's important in this case is the public display of weakness of the mighty Soviet Union; if in OTL for an aircraft landed undetected Stalin had arrested a lot of officers image what he will do when the entente bomb Baku with neglible loss.
The performance will be between horrible and ridicolous (in a tragicomic sense), better be honest...basically ITTL version of the italian invasion of Greece and this will mean other officer will be purged (as happened OTL with the initial perfomance of the Red Army during the Nazi Invasion)
Finally...trend can be reverted; sure Purge had a political reasoning behind them, but not only that, they were also a method to deflect the blame of any failure from Stalin and not Joseph Stalin the real man but the careful crafted image of omniscience that he (and a lot others) had created and was basically perfect and uncapable of any fail plus the man really.
So when the initial attack will become a disaster, head will roll and probably litteraly
Stalin's response to failures wasn't necessarily to purge people... it was also to get people out there and fix what had fucked up.
Again, it depends on who they send to take charge of things. If it's a crony or incompetent hack like Kulik , then yeah tragicomedy will be right. Stalin's response to that will be to replace him with someone like Zhukov or Timoshenko, at which point it would likely be more akin to a mix of the latter part of the Winter War (January-February 1940) and Khalkin Ghol). It will be sloppy and losses will be heavy, but they'll make progress nonetheless and barrel through the initial defenses the Turks and Persians are liable to set up. The problem is, though, that the Turks and Iranians have rather a lot more ground to give up then the Finns did.
There was zero indication that was happening. The 1941 purge was smaller then the 1940 purge which was smaller then the 1939 purge which was vastly smaller then the 1937 and 1938 purges. Officers were being rehabilitated and new training programs were being set-up. The trend never reversed, even after the Soviets suffered much more serious setbacks then a small oil field getting burned.
Your OKH-esque stereotyping aside, the real important things that will happen is reorganization and reforms that continue to iron out the Red Army's issues as well as building up a core of forces with actual combat experience under them.
Also, I have to revise my earlier statement about where a 1942-43 Barbarossa would run out of steam. The "roughly 1939 border" was based on the assumption that the Red Army isn't taken by surprise in a '42-'43 attack which isn't a given in a scenario where Hitler attacks Stalin while the two are still quasi-Allies against Britain. The Germans getting halted roughly around the D'niepr river line is more likely in that case, although again the Red Army's losses will be vastly lower and the Soviets will be able to retain almost all of their vital industrial regions.
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Interesting.
Japan probably now has an extra incentive to go to war with the Soviets, along with British and French assistance
Japan probably now has an extra incentive to go to war with the Soviets, along with British and French assistance
Would you assume that the Soviets would be able to actually push through and break the Germans early? Or will the war be stalemated?
Possibly or possibly not.
Japan still needs that oil and the Soviets don't really have oil in Eastern Siberia. But of course, the Soviets could possibly entice them with offers of oil or something..
This looks interesting. From the description of the first chapter, it said that the US NEVER declared War in this scenario. So it makes me wonder if Japan will still make a move against the US. The situation in China is going to be interesting.
I look forward to seeing this develop.
I know it is probably ASB but with a three way WW2, seeing Japan trying to take a bite out of Russia would be cool.
I slightly rephrased that. What I originally meant was that the US never declared war on someone FIRST.
Japan taking Russia? With this PoD, anything is up in the air.
As said, OTL for less in that period he had purged, i doubt that he will have done different if an important installation like Baku was attacked with almost impunity; and sure he had sent people to fix the things that he had basically broken.
First the small oil field burn it's more your version...and basically you chose always the best scenario for the Red Army or the URSS; second a so public humiliation for the Soviet Union and him personally mean people will be punished and he usually send them to death or in a gulag, it was his style point and frankly they can be smaller (and sure that the purge in 1941 were smaller than 1937 otherwise there will be no Red Army left) but they will cause problem for the armed forces united to the not good end of the initial operation in Turkey and Iran the morale will be very low...and please no confrontation with OTL, there is a lot of difference between a war for survival and losing a war of conquest you initiated against supposed weaker opponent.
It's just that unlike you i don't consider the Red Army or the URSS the beginning and the end of all the military force and industrial power and that clusterfuck that was the winter war had given them enough experience and by the time of the Nazi Invasion a year later were still on the reoganization phase.
Ok, I missed the change. Thanks for clearing that up for me.
Lots of eggs in the air and just who they may fall on? That is yet to be revealed.
Update when you are able.
Once the front stabilizes approximately along the D'niepr after the first two-three months of the invasion? It would be an stalemate for some time, likely approximately a year, with the frontline fluctuating within ~100 miles of the river. After that, the Soviets should have enough resources and experience under their belt to really begin driving the Germans westward.
Also, as much as I regret popping people's bubbles on this, a Japanese attack on the Soviet Far East is most likely to end with them getting soundly thrashed by the Red Army. Khalkin Ghol demonstrated that.
And OTL, he had not purged people for a lot more.
More like you always choose the worst. Unlike you, I didn't just assume the Soviets would automatically send one of their quality leaders down. Instead, I posited what would happen if the Soviets sent one of their quality leaders and what would happen if they sent one of their incompetents. Best and worst.
What humiliation? Ineffective bombing of an oil field.
The Red Army was actually quite a bit larger in 1941 then it was in 1937, as was the officer corps. The main thing that the purges had cost the Soviets wasn't in men or even in talented men... rather it was experience and only time or a certain measure of combat* could have provided that.
*Too much combat and the prospective officers get killed off faster then they can learn. Too little, and they don't learn enough.
Too bad, I can do it anyways: the Winter War. It was a war of conquest the Soviets initiated against a supposed weaker opponent and lost the initial battles. Stalin's response was to have some insignificant nobodies shot... and send in some actually competent officers who whipped the Red Army. The Red Armies morale didn't break and what mattered wasn't that Stalin had some guys shot, as that changed nothing, but that Stalin sent in people to make things better as that did indeed make things better... well, for the Red Army. The Finns, obviously disagree.
And unlike you, I don't subscribe to the view that the Red Army would be perpetually stuck as the early-Winter War level of incompetence like the folks in the German High Command did when they were planning Barbarossa. Hell, they didn't remain stuck in early-Winter War incompetence during the Winter War. Or even before the Winter War... Khalkin Ghol was only a few months before.
Oh crist chill out for haven'sake, never said that...just that they are not the god of war you always make out from them. They were good, as many others, they had enormous problem and suffered a lot of casualities...but much of that was due of the fault of their system and sure they have rebound and built an army that had defeated the Nazi spectaculary but they have had help you know. I'm just not blind to their problems and defects.
And Khalkin Ghol, yeah really difficult a modern mechanizated army against the IJA, very hard. Oh i think that Zhukov and his soldiers had done a great job, but seriously it was not that terrible adversary, expecially in that terrain.
Again, going for the third time...hope it's the good one. It's not the damned result that count, you folllow me? For obtain the same reaction they can even launch just ton and ton of leafleats or chocolate cake.It's the fact that someone has bombed Baku with impunity that humiliate him...and if you think that i exagerate, well as already said a couple of time, he purged a lot of officers due to a german plane landing undetected in OTL (among other thing...and the one arrested and executed don't strike me like nobodies) and bombing Baku it's a little more than that; please don't confond the Stalin from the propaganda from Stalin the real man; he strongly believe in fear and intimitation as big motivator as his entire career as Soviet leader amply demonstrated.
Second...you say that the bombing will be inefecttive.
Yeah, after what? A massive build up and overwhelming use of materials while the Finn were low on supply, probably even i can conquer Finland in that manner and please, see if the morale don't break after another failure and another failure...and the initial invasion will fail, no matter who you put in charge.
First the Red Army had litteraly just begun reform; second the damned terrain is very hard it will be basically a repetition of the italian front of WWI with the Soviet slated to be the italian...and i assure you it's not pretty; third the operation will be probably something of quickly put together as the boss want action now, fourth air support for the red army will be non existent (the soviet air forces was plagued by lack of training, outdated tattic and accidents...one of the reason a lot of officers were purged before the war and had not really made a great impression during the winter war and i doubt they will have better luck against the RAF) while the Red Army will be hammered.
They will be always repelled or lose? No, naturally, they have numerical and material advantage...just in that terrain (at least Turkey) it's not that decisive in the short term and as you said the Red Army was reforming, but in the meantime there will be a lot of suffering for the Soviet soldiers...and as usual Stalin will need (and i reiterate need) scapegoat...more or less like OTL.
Insider
Banned
Ok. So there are subsequent air raids? Is VVS brain dead? Because if I understand correctly there is no way that these bombers would be escorted. I understand that USSR do not field modern MIG's and Laggs yet, but there would be swarms of I 153 and I 16 waiting for each subsequent raids. And as germans learned over the Warsaw, even outdated fighters can cause a lot of trouble to unescorted bombers.
No, they are not brain dead but the purge had hit them hard, they use obsolete tattic and the general training and technical reliability of the aircraft are not very good (sure they have improved from the initial day of the winter war, but the caucasus it's very far from it and time is need for change to affect the entire structure)...well after the usual elimination of the scapegoat (the abysmal performance of the VVS will be one of the reason of the purge, regardless of the effective damage inflicted), things will change earlier than OTL, but till that moment the soviet air force it's not in a good place.
edit: regarding the beginning of the story, well there are the nazi...anything fighting them even the URSS it's the good guy, point.
Basically we had been forced to create new definition of evilness and depravity to describe them..and at the moment they are allied with the URSS and Japan, so yes, it's basically good vs evil
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This looks interesting. From the description of the first chapter, it said that the US NEVER declared War in this scenario. So it makes me wonder if Japan will still make a move against the US. The situation in China is going to be interesting.
I look forward to seeing this develop.
I know it is probably ASB but with a three way WW2, seeing Japan trying to take a bite out of Russia would be cool.
There's a possibility of Britain, France and the Netherlands cutting a deal with Japan in summer 1940 - Dutch oil for war goods such as shipping. The US would not be particularly impressed, but the alternative would leave the colonial empires in the East as horribly exposed as OTL. With secure supplies of raw materials, Japan doesn't need to attack anyone else. Yet, China is still unwinnable for Japan and US pressure on the colonial powers to renege on the deal would only ever mount...
Shadow Master
Banned
If I may ask a few questions?
The POD seems to be that Stalin goes all out in the winter war, as opposed to OTL?
How do Sweden and Norway react differently than in OTL in response to this major change in Finland's status?
How do Britan and France react differently to this, in Scandinavia? Do they still go into Norway like in OTL?
Now, for the attack on the USSR, do I understand that this is a surprise attack, conducted by the British and French, without a DoW on the USSR?
Some of the attackers will probably be lost the very first raid, so their identity will not be in doubt. Stalin now react how? I would suspect that he would demand the chance to hit back at both Britan and France, and that means VVS forces working alongside the Nazi's.
Still need to know what is the ATL status of Norway? Do the Nazi's fail to go in as OTL, or sooner/harder, what with Stalin now on Sweden's boarder?
Not all VVS forces can be found something constructive to do in the middle east, so I would expect to see Stalin demanding permission from Hitler to provide bases for Soviet forces to strike at the French and British mainlands directly and ASAP. He would not be likely to accept a mere defensive stance, nor settel for hitting their colonies only, he will want to hit their homelands directly.
Any thoughts?
The POD seems to be that Stalin goes all out in the winter war, as opposed to OTL?
How do Sweden and Norway react differently than in OTL in response to this major change in Finland's status?
How do Britan and France react differently to this, in Scandinavia? Do they still go into Norway like in OTL?
Now, for the attack on the USSR, do I understand that this is a surprise attack, conducted by the British and French, without a DoW on the USSR?
Some of the attackers will probably be lost the very first raid, so their identity will not be in doubt. Stalin now react how? I would suspect that he would demand the chance to hit back at both Britan and France, and that means VVS forces working alongside the Nazi's.
Still need to know what is the ATL status of Norway? Do the Nazi's fail to go in as OTL, or sooner/harder, what with Stalin now on Sweden's boarder?
Not all VVS forces can be found something constructive to do in the middle east, so I would expect to see Stalin demanding permission from Hitler to provide bases for Soviet forces to strike at the French and British mainlands directly and ASAP. He would not be likely to accept a mere defensive stance, nor settel for hitting their colonies only, he will want to hit their homelands directly.
Any thoughts?
Shadow Master
Banned
Two things I would point out here:
1) With wartime experience, hitting fuel facilities were saved for last bombs of a mission, as when you start these fires, the vast amounts of smoke from them tends to occlude the entire target area, rendering successive bombing runs much less effective, to completly useless.
2) With respect to bombing factories, production disruption was caused almost exclusively from collasped roofs/walls, and NOT actual damage to the heavy machinery used in the actual production methods, which was why bombing something endlessly, again and again, over and over again without a letup, didn't work, as a production line that is basically undamaged, but unusable until the debris is cleared away, remains undamaged, but still unuseable until the debris has been cleared away, at which time a follow up raid would be worth conducting, but not before.
For a look at the likely effect of the proposed "Pearl Harbor esque" oilfield campaign, I think the OTL raids on the Ploesti (sp) fields are the best measure of the likely results.
178 bombers were sent out, 88 returned, 55 of which were shot up. The damage, such as it was, was repaired in 2 weeks, and by then the total oil production was higher than before the raids, as the undamaged facilities had not even been utilized to capacity, so they just stepped up their usage until the damaged facilities came back on line.
A first time raid, is unlikely to hit the target, much less severly, and they will not get any second chance to get in for free.
And as noted above, if the enemy knows you are going after a facility that has abundant POL stocks on hand, lighting diversionary fires off site to spoof nighttime raids is childs play, and daylight raids are going to find their intended targets obscured by huge clouds of smoke, and swarms of fighters stopping by to say hello.
1) With wartime experience, hitting fuel facilities were saved for last bombs of a mission, as when you start these fires, the vast amounts of smoke from them tends to occlude the entire target area, rendering successive bombing runs much less effective, to completly useless.
2) With respect to bombing factories, production disruption was caused almost exclusively from collasped roofs/walls, and NOT actual damage to the heavy machinery used in the actual production methods, which was why bombing something endlessly, again and again, over and over again without a letup, didn't work, as a production line that is basically undamaged, but unusable until the debris is cleared away, remains undamaged, but still unuseable until the debris has been cleared away, at which time a follow up raid would be worth conducting, but not before.
For a look at the likely effect of the proposed "Pearl Harbor esque" oilfield campaign, I think the OTL raids on the Ploesti (sp) fields are the best measure of the likely results.
178 bombers were sent out, 88 returned, 55 of which were shot up. The damage, such as it was, was repaired in 2 weeks, and by then the total oil production was higher than before the raids, as the undamaged facilities had not even been utilized to capacity, so they just stepped up their usage until the damaged facilities came back on line.
A first time raid, is unlikely to hit the target, much less severly, and they will not get any second chance to get in for free.
And as noted above, if the enemy knows you are going after a facility that has abundant POL stocks on hand, lighting diversionary fires off site to spoof nighttime raids is childs play, and daylight raids are going to find their intended targets obscured by huge clouds of smoke, and swarms of fighters stopping by to say hello.
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Sweden and Norway had acted as OTL till Finland has fallen; by now people in Stockholm will need a series of changes of pants as now they are sandwiched between Adolf and Joseph...two very nice neighbourgh; they will probably try even harder to stay absolutely neutral.
Norway will probably go as OTL for the greater part, the difference can be Narvik with France continuing figthing one attempt to hold it can be made (both for propaganda reason but also for not let Sweden, and his iron ore, left surrounded by the Axis force).
Hard that Adolf will allow Soviet forces in to fight alongside the Germans or even use base in his territory (he barely accepted the italian expeditionary force during the BoB) and i doubt that Stalin will want that too.
Regarding Baku damage, one must take in consideration many thing like:
- how was soviet damage control? Really i don't have a clue on how good was in the period
- there is always the bane of AH aka the lucky shot/event; really sometimes one is just lucky/unlucky and a series of unlucky event make possible something almost absurd like Pearl Harbour or the OTL Invasion of France.
Finally regarding the Soviet being prepared to the German invasion, well this can be perfectely plausible but the situation can also be like OTL, with Stalin convincing himselfs that Hitler will not attack him before having resolved the situation with the British and basically leaving the door open to the attack while at the same time send to prison everyone who suggest a possible invasion or ignoring every proof.
Norway will probably go as OTL for the greater part, the difference can be Narvik with France continuing figthing one attempt to hold it can be made (both for propaganda reason but also for not let Sweden, and his iron ore, left surrounded by the Axis force).
Hard that Adolf will allow Soviet forces in to fight alongside the Germans or even use base in his territory (he barely accepted the italian expeditionary force during the BoB) and i doubt that Stalin will want that too.
Regarding Baku damage, one must take in consideration many thing like:
- how was soviet damage control? Really i don't have a clue on how good was in the period
- there is always the bane of AH aka the lucky shot/event; really sometimes one is just lucky/unlucky and a series of unlucky event make possible something almost absurd like Pearl Harbour or the OTL Invasion of France.
Finally regarding the Soviet being prepared to the German invasion, well this can be perfectely plausible but the situation can also be like OTL, with Stalin convincing himselfs that Hitler will not attack him before having resolved the situation with the British and basically leaving the door open to the attack while at the same time send to prison everyone who suggest a possible invasion or ignoring every proof.