What influence would Tsarist Russia have on Versailles and other treaties if they hung on in 1918?

Which I can't see happening.

Britain and France didn't have the strongest interest in Eastern Europe. And given that Russia won't be in much of a state to demand much, I can't see her alarming anyone in Europe. Where there may be friction is in Iran. But even so, I can't imagine strong friction there. Likely the zones of influence the British and Russians had pre-war grow more entrenched.

fasquardon

Iran concerns only Britain and rather minor. The original agreement would have to be modified as the internal situation in Iran rendered it impractical. But after four years of war, its hard to see fighting breaking out over such a trivial dispute. Britain would want allies at least and over Iran she won't have any

France and Russia made an early agreement that France and Russia would support each other's border claims against Germany. I don't think either is going to mind cutting down Germany and pretty harshly. Military factors will govern it more than ethnic France will want the Rhine and the Russians at least the Vistula and more likely closer to the Oder. Silesia will be taken for sure for its industrial potential

The Russians might paper things over by pretending its part of a Russian poland but its going to take some really insane demand to get to war

As a side note: Italy's claims against Austria will be satisfied
 
As a side note: Italy's claims against Austria will be satisfied
Are there any that werent satisfied? After the war Rome literally sent officials to the newly conquered territories to rename rivers, mountains and towns as they had no old italian names that could be used (it's quite common in Europe for border regions to have multiple names for cities/geography in multiple languages).

If you mean reparations... well nothing changes here, they were let go of after realizing that it's quite literally impossible to pay as the new country was reduced to an agrarian backwater.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... the total reparations to the West originally totaled 120 billion marks or 60 billion gold rubles.
...
I'm afraid you got some numbers ... not right.

First :
There was never ever the sum of 120 Billion goldmarks (the pre-war currency taken as the 'value' to be paid in according to Gold Standard) named anywhere.
There were 20 Billion to be paid as a first off-Hands payment. Then there was the sum of 269 Billions from the Conference of Boulogne in June 1920, then at the Conference in Paris in January 1921 the sum of 269 Billions was repeated but 'only' 226 Billions as unchangable main sum to be paid in every case. In may 1921 the London Conference reduced the sum to 132 Billion Goldmarks split up into several 'Bonds'-packages of different ... 'weight' to be paid at certain times.
No 120 Billions anywhere ...

Second :
Exchange course between Goldmark and Rubel ... 1912 : 1 Goldmark for 0.303 Rubel.
... and not 1 to 0.5 Rubel as in your example

Sry, but ... your handling and usage of numbers isn't exactly to be named 'reliable'.

... Russia will make its own demands and enforce them against them as well
...
...
And yes, Nomommsen, Germany did pay reparations for many years. It was not a lack of ability to pay but the refusal to enforce the payments. The Russians and the French are collecting
...
And again :
why would Russia be more successfull in extracting whatever amount of reparations from Germany ITTL than the 'western' Entente powers including France IOTL ?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
...
Russia wasn't getting heavily indebted because she was blockaded. Since she couldn't import any goods, there was no need to borrow to buy them.
...
You probably mean the Blockade of the Baltic and Black Sea ports.
Well ... there was still Wladiwostock actually used as a delivery Harbour for especially US-goods like Locomotives to be delivered or Arschangelsk, where the western interventonal troops on landing in 1919 stilkl found crates with ammo and explosives delivered in 1916. ... though at that time the crates were already quite rotten.

... Internal debts denominated in paper currency won't affect the international balance of payments which is the important number. As taxes would also be collected in the inflated currency, the debt burden is lowered by the inflationary amount. In effect, the prewar internal debt is wiped out ...
Everyone having an at least rudimentary education on economics and finances would render your ... theories about Inflation especially hyperinflation rather ... interesting.

...
Unfree peasants? Russian peasant enjoyed complete autonomy in local government and the villages ran through democratic franchise. In local government, Russia was more democratic than anyone including the US
...
Yeah ... tsarist Russia ... a peasants paradise ...

... Buy weapons? For what?
...
To hold Austria and Germany at arms length through 1917 and at least first half of 1918 ?

...
As to the gold standard, well, everyone went off it ...
When ?
... not in 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, ...
 
I'm afraid you got some numbers ... not right.

First :
There was never ever the sum of 120 Billion goldmarks (the pre-war currency taken as the 'value' to be paid in according to Gold Standard) named anywhere.
There were 20 Billion to be paid as a first off-Hands payment. Then there was the sum of 269 Billions from the Conference of Boulogne in June 1920, then at the Conference in Paris in January 1921 the sum of 269 Billions was repeated but 'only' 226 Billions as unchangable main sum to be paid in every case. In may 1921 the London Conference reduced the sum to 132 Billion Goldmarks split up into several 'Bonds'-packages of different ... 'weight' to be paid at certain times.
No 120 Billions anywhere ...

Second :
Exchange course between Goldmark and Rubel ... 1912 : 1 Goldmark for 0.303 Rubel.
... and not 1 to 0.5 Rubel as in your example

Sry, but ... your handling and usage of numbers isn't exactly to be named 'reliable'.

As always, it is you who is in error not me.

The exchange rate was, technically, 100 marks = 46.5 roubles which rounds to .5 not anywhere near your number of .303

http://www.historicalstatistics.org/Currencyconverter.html

Prhaps you can enlighten us where your false number came from

Oh, the 120 billion was a typo from the 130 number. In any case, the reparaations are going to more than pay off Russia's puny little debt

And again :
why would Russia be more successfull in extracting whatever amount of reparations from Germany ITTL than the 'western' Entente powers including France IOTL ?
Oh this old bs again.

Okay, one more time- Autocratic Russia didn't care all that much about its own public opinion. Why would they give a rat's ass about public opinion in Britain or the US? And with the Russians on their side, the French would disregard the British as well. The Germans are paying- which would be far cheaper than the Nazi arms buildup, the extermination of millions of their own people, World War II and the Soviet occupation

You probably mean the Blockade of the Baltic and Black Sea ports.
Well ... there was still Wladiwostock actually used as a delivery Harbour for especially US-goods like Locomotives to be delivered or Arschangelsk, where the western interventonal troops on landing in 1919 stilkl found crates with ammo and explosives delivered in 1916. ... though at that time the crates were already quite rotten.

Everyone having an at least rudimentary education on economics and finances would render your ... theories about Inflation especially hyperinflation rather ... interesting.

Yeah ... tsarist Russia ... a peasants paradise ...

To hold Austria and Germany at arms length through 1917 and at least first half of 1918 ?

When ?
... not in 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, ...

Again, the small debt Russia incurred during the war proves how little was coming in through Siberia and the White Sea. That remains the point: Russia isn't racking up huge debts because she can't import much

And as Austria and Germany collapse, why would the Russians be spending huge sums on defense? Really, by the time the blockade is lifted, the war will be over. "At least the first half of 1918" assumes a lot that is not in order. Germany was collapsing in 1917- Things were so bad they turn to provoking war with the Americans in a desperate bid to win the war before their inevitable defeat. Only the collapse of the Tsarist regime would allow the Central Powers to hang on to 1918

On inflation- economic theory is pretty settled on it. Hyperinflation does wipe out any debt in the old currency- which is why the Germans used it after the war. Doesn't mean the Russians won't stabilize their currency after the war, just that they would do it at lower rates.

All the warring states effectively went off the gold standard in August 1914. Various devices are used to maintain the fiction but on demand conversion is over

Now back to the main topic: What influence will a surviving Tsarist regime have at Versailles

Simply put, they will get their way on everything in the East which is what they care about. They will occupy whatever territory they want and no one is going to force them out unless its truly ridiculous like the Rhine

The Russian and French Armies will remain where they can rapidly reoccupy Germany while the British and Americans go home. The treaty will be enforced, Nazism averted and with it WWII as we know it
 
Grand Duke Michael accepting the throne would be an interesting PoD.

I suspect that had Alexis become Tsar, the monarchy would have ended soon. He just wouldn't be enough Tsar for the times.

fasquardon
A Tsar Alexis would not come of age until 1922. Because of his poor health, the likelihood he would marry and produce of an heir of his own might come in question. Though Hemophiliacs have lived long enough to marry and produce children, this timeline might work so that Grand Duke Michael continues to be the heir presumptive, and perhaps Alexis dies before he produces an heir or possibly he produces only a daughter, and when he passes away young, his uncle inherits the throne in middle age.
 
Yeah ... tsarist Russia ... a peasants paradise ...

At what point did Aphrodite say that it was a paradise? You're inserting additional meaning into a perfectly valid statement.

Democracy and paradise are different things.

Everyone having an at least rudimentary education on economics and finances would render your ... theories about Inflation especially hyperinflation rather ... interesting.

Inflation typically isn't good for effective taxation, it's true. But inflation does reduce own-currency debts well enough.

But how much rouble debt did Tsarist Russia hold? I'll bet they have a fair amount of Franc and Pound denominated debt (possibly some dollar denominated debts as well, depending on how France and Britain pass on the loans they took on Russia's behalf).

With the Franc-based debt, France had fairly severe inflation after WW1, but not hyper inflation. So the debts to France may only be reduced relative to £ and $ debt, but still grow heavier in rouble terms.

And again :
why would Russia be more successfull in extracting whatever amount of reparations from Germany ITTL than the 'western' Entente powers including France IOTL ?

Well, is Russia part of the international force occupying the Rhineland until Germany pays up? Does it have its own occupation zone elsewhere (German Silesia maybe)? Almost certainly the answer to one of these is "yes". Now the question is, does Russia withdraw early like the British did (or never turn up, like the Americans)? This is a harder question, I suspect not though. For various reasons - 1) Russia will want its share of reparations paid, 2) being part of the occupation force is likely to be seen as prestigious, 3) it's a way to try to maintain relations with France, which IMO will be under strain after WW1.

In OTL, the reparations policy was basically dictated in Britain as an irrational fear of French domination of Europe, a more reasonable concern for British trade with Germany and British budget austerity (along with a few other more minor factors) came together to make Britain an opponent of the Versailles treaty (even if the British hadn't quite realised it yet). Here, British policy may be changed by Russia remaining active in European politics, since either the Franco-Russian alliance will make Britain even more worried than France alone, or mean that Britain will be working more closely with France, as they try to pull France and Russia apart and make sure France is friendly to Britain.

Further, in OTL, France, Italy and Belgium were basically left to hold up the Entente side of Versailles on their own, and France, who needed either Britain or America (preferably both) on her side should another war with Germany happen, cared very, very much for how her actions were perceived in these countries. And both in practical terms were the enemies of the Versailles peace (not that this puts them in the league of Hitler - wanting to end the Versailles order and replace it with something better is very different from wanting to end the Versailles order and crush all those who insulted Germany). In TTL, France has another potential ally to support her against Germany (though she may prefer Germany even so). So "international opinion" is less likely to mean only British and American opinion, but is likely to also include Italian opinion more and also a big dollop of Russian opinion.

So it may be that the balance of forces favours Versailles actually being enforced, rather than the Entente going "so we're going home, but you'd still better pay up, or else Germany".

Of course, I can imagine that Russia itself might favour withdrawing troops from Germany and might turn against the Versailles order. I think it's less likely, but by no means impossible. Also, as I say, there will be strains between France and Russia, in part over the large amount of money Russia owes to France and to French investors, and in part because the more autocratic Russia is, the more the pre-WW1 strains will continue to grow (though I think Russia MUST become significantly more democratic for a Tsar to hold the throne, whether they go far enough to satisfy French public opinion is another matter). So it is possible to imagine a situation like OTL coming about, where Germany wins the political battle over reparations, but it is easy to imagine the Versailles treaty being more enforced as well. Though of course "more enforced" may only mean that the Versailles order only holds for a few more years or decades and Germany still wins in the end.

One thing that occurs to me - I could see Russia and Italy becoming close allies, which may be quite interesting.

fasquardon
 
A Tsar Alexis would not come of age until 1922. Because of his poor health, the likelihood he would marry and produce of an heir of his own might come in question. Though Hemophiliacs have lived long enough to marry and produce children, this timeline might work so that Grand Duke Michael continues to be the heir presumptive, and perhaps Alexis dies before he produces an heir or possibly he produces only a daughter, and when he passes away young, his uncle inherits the throne in middle age.


The Russian age of majority was 16 so Alexis would come of age in 1920. If he had a son, the child would be healthy but its doubtful he could live that long

@fasquardon

Russia is likely to have its own zone in the East. Certainly East Prussia and a bridgehead over the Oder at a minimum. Against Austria-Hungary, they'll be taking anything they want Maybe to the Danube. At a minimum, the occupation would be the Carpathian passes.

Even if the Russians don't move to direct occupation, the East European states are going to be divided and no threat to Russia. She can later occupy them at her leisure. This extends even to Romania who was an allied power

The French and Russians will be collecting whatever they want from Germany. Both of them live there and can mobilize their armies in days to take what they want. Its possible the Russians would want a somewhat strong Germany as a buffer against France but I doubt it if the monarchy falls

The Western powers- Italy, France and Britain are more likely to quarrel with each other than Russia. Russia cares about her Eastern zone, the Western powers will squabble over the Mediterannean, the Colonies and just that can get at each other. Britain is not going to like a France that is growing immensely powerful after being freed from the German threat.

Russia should be able to play them off against each other. I like your Russo-Italian ties but Russia can stay with France as well
 
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