What if WW2 Was Delayed until the 50s

[FickleCrossroad]

Couldn't the SU with it's multitude of 5 year plans lead to it being able to take on the Fascist Bloc?

If you're assuming a Germany that spends the 40's in a non-belligerent, slow, methodical buildup, it's implausible to assume the Nazi's run the show. Thus, your POD would have to be in the 1920's. Perhaps another Fascist movement would take over, however, any Germany that grows would have much better success by appearing less threatening. Thus, the longer you delay war, the more you must decrease the plausibility of autocracy in Germany. To make it to the 50's with a strong Germany that hasn't seen war w/ other nations since 1918, you almost have to assume democracy survived. The conditions that created and built the Nazi party (and any other party bent on dictatorship,) were such that it would be very difficult for a party to seize power and hold it without taking drastic measures. Thus, dictatorship in Germany in the 30's -> Overheating economy no later than the 1940's -> Earlier WW2 with a Germany facing more foes.

A democratic Germany would be on a slower timetable should it pursue a Pan-Germanic state, but with the right leadership, Hitler's pre 9/39 gains could be plausible by 1940-43. A Germany hellbent on a contigous state may (bordering ASB here, but...) be open to a straight-up swap with Poland. In that case, Poland MIGHT be open to negotiating away the Danzig Corridor should Germany realize the only way to have a contigous nation is to trade away the Memeland, (though I'm highly skeptical this is possible.)

In any case, put a democratic Germany who has fulfilled smaller territorial ambitions peacefully by 1942 next to a friendly neutral like Poland, and it's more plausible as the rest of the 40's go by to see a Western European anti-Soviet alliance. Intact Germany + France, the UK, Poland (who would be no joke had they been able to modernize,) and possibly token Spanish and Italian forces vs. the USSR? Poland, the Baltics, and eastern Prussia would get chewed up, but you'd be looking at a Western victory in a few years, plus a German atomic bomb program that has all of those Jewish scientists, possibly working hand-in-hand with French & UK programs.

That's my $0.02, anyway. Longer wait for WW2 -> Higher chance of democratic Germany. Democratic, sane Germany -> More intra-Western cooperation. Thus, later USSR vs West WW2, greater chance of USSR defeat.

 

[Kongzilla]

I think all those Jewish scientists would have fled Germany, so that leaves it in the Hands of the guys who got the formula wrong. The British would probably have the know how and the Americans would have the Resource for the Atomic bombs.

It doesn't really even have to be the Nazi party "In Charge" I mean it is a dictatorship right, so wouldn't the Fuhrer make all the decisions, who to go to war with and who to murder.

Did someone on here say that in order to stay in Power the Nazi party would need to do some drastic measures or something. What kind of Drastic measures are we talking about. Annexing Danzig or something. Casting off Versailles with a big rump pah pah. Maybe just kicking a bit of bollocks in a small overseas war.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

I think all those Jewish scientists would have fled Germany, so that leaves it in the Hands of the guys who got the formula wrong.

My point was: The longer you delay WW2, the less likely Germany went Nazi or Fascist by a psychotic murdering idiot.

For a government in Germany to rearm fast enough to pick a major fight by the 1938-1942 window, it pretty much needs to be totalitarian. Otherwise, the economy is stretched too thin. A democratic, non-persecuting Germany, OTOH, can rearm enough by the early 40's to make the Anschluss, and the Sudenten/Czech annexations possible. A democracy generally isn't as ambitious as needed to try to conquer Poland knowing that would bring the UK & France in against them.

Thus, if you push WW2 to the 50's, it's more plausible to suggest Soviet aggression and a democratic Germany. Give a Germany a decade without making territorial demands (outside of negotiations with Poland (to the point of offering a territorial swap,) and the other western democracies will be far less hostile to Germany. In the event of a Soviet invasion, France would more likely than not side with a democratic Germany, fully knowing the next time around they'd be facing a Red German Army with the backing of Moscow sitting across the Rhine.

You keep Germany democratic, the physicists don't flee. You keep Germany democratic, at least the UK would be open to scientific cooperation. Add those two together, and you have atomics in German hands within five years of the Soviet offensive.

 

[Kongzilla]

Is there any way to keep it Totalitarian and Fascist.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

Is there any way to keep it Totalitarian and Fascist.

Sure, if you don't expect Germany's economy to be strong enough to do much. If they can't afford Swedish iron ore, they're screwed. Otherwise, you're handwaving in far too much luck and intelligence into a regime that had some of each, but nowhere near enough to take on most of Europe and make it stick.

 

[Kongzilla]

How did Mussolini keep Italy from falling apart in the two decades he was in power.

Assuming that the Germany does stick around till the 50s, where would be a good Stalingrad type city that would have the Germans and Soviets throwing vast amounts of troops into it. It would also be helpful if it was also a turning point type place that would allow the Axis to go on the offensive. I was thinking Warsaw would be a good place. Far enough east to not be within striking distance. Far enough West that if it falls Berlin is in danger.

 

[Shaby]

Assuming that the Germany does stick around till the 50s, where would be a good Stalingrad type city that would have the Germans and Soviets throwing vast amounts of troops into it.

Try Kiev.

But I assume that your TL butterflies nuclear weapons away and basically creates no rational impediment to a war between major powers. Otherwise, it evolves into a Cold War type situation.

 

[Kongzilla]

There are no Nukes but there are Chemical and Biological weapons but I think they refrain from using them much like OTL. Mainly because Britain/France and Germany are to close together and that means the main delivery system (for the Allies and Comitern at least) Bombers will reach each other and annihilate their countries so they kind of hold off on the WMD.

On the Stalingrad type thing. Its the Soviets on the offensive and they are doing relatively well until the this Turning point thing like the OTL germans. They could have done fine and BAM lose an entire army. So the Capital of the Ukraine might not be the best place. Although it could add some cool Nationalist VS Communist action. Every man could be an enemy.

Maybe Slovakia, they didn't do much during the War and it could be interesting to see the world have their eyes on them.

 

[Shaby]

On the Stalingrad type thing. Its the Soviets on the offensive and they are doing relatively well until the this Turning point thing like the OTL germans. They could have done fine and BAM lose an entire army. So the Capital of the Ukraine might not be the best place. Although it could add some cool Nationalist VS Communist action. Every man could be an enemy.

Maybe Slovakia, they didn't do much during the War and it could be interesting to see the world have their eyes on them.

Why not Warsaw then? It has a nice setting on a plain, divided by the wide river?

 

[Kongzilla]

All right then, Does it get as cold as Russia in Poland. I don't think so but I am not sure.

Another thing can Poland and Romania be made Fascist by 1950-51. And what would a modernized Polish Military look like, Is it safe to Assume the Standard weapon would be the karabin samopowtarzalny wz.38M. I think pretty much all sides would Semi-Automatic rifles except Nazi Germany and with Britain having the EM-1/2 in the works. To be brought out the following year in mass production.

Would a Nazi Germany not looking for War sign a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact type agreement, a non-aggression pact that doesn't involve invading another country. So there is still a winter war and such but both Leave each other "alone" although they will still be supporting and supplying their enemies enemy with weapons and such.

 

[Shaby]

All right then, Does it get as cold as Russia in Poland. I don't think so but I am not sure.

Winter 39/40 and 40/41 and the subsequent one, have been some of the coldest on the record throughout the Eastern Europe. It could easily get cold enough.

If you are going to have Soviet attack, why couldn't they attack Poland, with Germany rushing in to help them? Or something along these lines?

 

[Kongzilla]

A soviet Attack wouldn't be limited to Just Poland though with a modernized Army and Stalin in charge I could see him going after all of Europe.

 

[Shaby]

I was not clear enough, my fault. The Germans would rush in to meet the Soviet assault head on and help Poland. After a meeting engagement goes somewhat badly for the Germans, they stage a fighting withdrawal and take a defensive position around Warsaw, luring Soviets into a battle you envision (I presume). There, with the help of the Polish forces they surround and annihilate a Soviet front formation, say you call it a Central Front or something alike.

 

[Kongzilla]

I like it.