What if WW2 Was Delayed until the 50s

[FickleCrossroad]

I was kind of thinking maybe it's not the Germans that cause this war. So they have a smaller peace time army so they don't have to blow their economy arming millions, except for maybe a fleet. So Then WW2 starts and they begin a rearmament. Although I'm not sure how a cold war would affect the sizes of armies. I think that would be Frances problem. Instead of trying to train 60 divisios with good weapons, they would try and equip 100 diviosions with sub standard weapons because they will be facing 2 large enemies.

A Cold War with Germany in one piece, unblooded by WW2? It depends on who with, and "who with" usually describes "how you got there."
-If it's just the USSR, chances are France and the UK are neutral at worst, and Germany's at least trying to be sane.
-If it's the USSR and France with UK neutral, Germany's probably being slightly aggressive, though skillful diplomacy and careful resource management might get the UK or US on their side (it'd take Bismarck reincarnate,) but nothing too crazy.
-If it's USSR, UK, and France together? Germany's doing something dumb enough to guarantee it'll go pariah and collapse, or start picking fights and get knocked out.

 

[M79]

-Hitler dies in 1936 (by any number of ways)
-Goering succeeds him, listens to Schacht, German economic growth slows as does rearmament
-Anschluss goes ahead as scheduled, as does Sudetenland
-Europe slowly recovers from Depression, starting with UK
-Spain goes Fascist during the Civil War but USSR military aid remembered in later years
-Italy and Germany grow apart but continue fairly good trade relations
-Stalin sees Winter War as opportunity to purge the ranks again
-SVT-40, Yak-9, and T-34 adopted by Red Army by 1945; SKS is in prototype stages
-Stalin decides that Europe is ripe for conquest but wants to develop his army more effectively
-AK-47 (equivalent), Alekseyev I-21, and T-55 adopted by Red Army by 1955
-Russians learn (little) after Finnish campaign and launch all-out offensive on the West in "Operation Peter the Great"
-Massive war with Allies (including Germany and Imperial Japan) in all-out war against USSR and communism lasts six years, at high-water mark almost all of Asia and Europe are in Communist hands with rebellions in half of Africa and much of Central America

 

[Elfwine]

"Highest levels possible in 1940" implies either an earlier start to the war (degrading technological advancement due to wartime necessity with the tradeoff of increased real-world training,) or ignoring France and the Benelux and starting Fall Weiss & Barbarossa simultaneously, with slightly more of what was used for the OTL 1940 invasions. In essence, the Heer can do one pretty thrust into Belarus, and fall to pieces between trying to subdue the Poles and fend off the human wave attacks by the USSR.

No, it's picking 1940 as the year before Barbarossa. Having the best or comparable technology to its opponents instead of for instance worse tanks.

Meanwhile, a human wave assault is going to be butchered the way they were in previous wars. Not to mention that the Poles being subdued does not require a bloated and inefficient army.

Half a million, towed by better trucks and SdKfz 251's? They never worked out the reliability issues of the Gewehr 41, so even rushing that is out, and they're still using K98's, MP40's, and MG34's. The early variants of the Panzer IV are possible, however it takes war lessons to improve them to a level that would be able to match the KV-1&2, let alone the T-34.

No reason Germany couldn't have built better tanks than it did OTL if it focused on quality instead of the largest possible army.

We're not talking OTL current US capabilities by delaying the onset of the war a decade, either. The economic issues are far too pressing. Concentrating tech, arming a smaller number in a better fashion, AND sustaining the economy are nearly as mutually exclusive for Germany as arming millions with inadequate equipment.

The economic issues are pressing because of bad Nazi management and overinvestment in military spending,

Also consider the distraction projects in many directions at this time. To spin up tech further, your POD would need to include consolidation.

Better than having too many brands of equipment to count.

A smaller Heer would have been better off, in peacetime. Basically, you're proposing the end result of a wank a lot of Germanophiles approve of: A Germany that gets, (via democracy and diplomacy) 1914 borders, plus Sudentenland and Austria, minus Alsace-Lorraine, and integration into a NATO/EU arrangement against the USSR. The POD would probably then have to be before Hindenburg's death.

In essence, a Germany that:
-Gets a charasmatic leader no later than the same time as OTL
-That leader quickly gets passage of an Enabling Act
-Aforementioned leader gets all of Hitler's land gains (minus non-Sudenten Czechoslovak territory, yes, I know that means losing the Skoda works and everything else, but this is for the diplomatic victory,) plus that particular corridor
-Leader is sane enough to step down from a government position and call a constitutional convention.
-Resultant Germany is democratic and exploring alliance with the rest of the West, even considering offering them support in a war against Japan.

Honestly, that's a Germanwank I'd love to read. It's also ASB-tastic.

I think some extent of that is not ASB - although I'd like to know why you need the Enabling Act here.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

No, it's picking 1940 as the year before Barbarossa. Having the best or comparable technology to its opponents instead of for instance worse tanks.
Meanwhile, a human wave assault is going to be butchered the way they were in previous wars. Not to mention that the Poles being subdued does not require a bloated and inefficient army.
No reason Germany couldn't have built better tanks than it did OTL if it focused on quality instead of the largest possible army.
The economic issues are pressing because of bad Nazi management and overinvestment in military spending.

To get to USSR-beating technology with a drastically smaller force, AND subduing Poland simultaneously, you'd need 1960's level equipment at least, which would require a ridiculous amount of spending into R&D, plus a lot of luck, to get there by 1940.

Better than having too many brands of equipment to count.

Agreed, but without handwaving a lot of luck in, to boost R&D to needed levels, you have to assume lots of dead-end projects and internal competition are going to creep up.

I think some extent of that is not ASB - although I'd like to know why you need the Enabling Act here.

To get Germany to where it was in 1940 OTL within a democracy, how else do you pour THAT much money into military R&D from a country that was held together by not much more than duct tape during the 1920's? It just seems a stretch, IMO.

 

[Elfwine]

To get to USSR-beating technology with a drastically smaller force, AND subduing Poland simultaneously, you'd need 1960's level equipment at least, which would require a ridiculous amount of spending into R&D, plus a lot of luck, to get there by 1940.

Assuming we're looking at a sane and moderate German leader who doesn't have ambitions on conquering the whole of the USSR and doesn't otherwise act like Hitler, I disagree.

And I should note - I'm looking at something along the lines of having (for instance) a half million strong "field army" but a largely force of "reserves" that are not going to be sent into the front line except as replacements for casualties in existing units but which would be capable of defensive and security work.

I note also the primary point of this is that you could get such an elite all-mechanized force with Germany's available oil - Germany fighting WWII successfully would take either far more limited goals or far more inept opponents or both. But "there's not enough oil to support the army you envision" depends on how you build the army.

Agreed, but without handwaving a lot of luck in, to boost R&D to needed levels, you have to assume lots of dead-end projects and internal competition are going to creep up.

Sure. But those happened OTL anyway, on top of the wasteful method of doing things. And happened to other powers, as well.

To get Germany to where it was in 1940 OTL within a democracy, how else do you pour THAT much money into military R&D from a country that was held together by not much more than duct tape during the 1920's? It just seems a stretch, IMO.

Germany has a lot of economic muscles to use . Even if the Weimar Republic isn't terribly sturdy.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

Assuming we're looking at a sane and moderate German leader who doesn't have ambitions on conquering the whole of the USSR and doesn't otherwise act like Hitler, I disagree.

And I should note - I'm looking at something along the lines of having (for instance) a half million strong "field army" but a largely force of "reserves" that are not going to be sent into the front line except as replacements for casualties in existing units but which would be capable of defensive and security work.

I note also the primary point of this is that you could get such an elite all-mechanized force with Germany's available oil - Germany fighting WWII successfully would take either far more limited goals or far more inept opponents or both. But "there's not enough oil to support the army you envision" depends on how you build the army.

Sure. But those happened OTL anyway, on top of the wasteful method of doing things. And happened to other powers, as well.

Germany has a lot of economic muscles to use . Even if the Weimar Republic isn't terribly sturdy.

Ok, thanks for clarifying 500K invasion force plus reserves, that makes things a lot more plausible in my eyes. When I think about a plausible, sane route to defeat the USSR with a small but advanced Heer, I'm just imagining something along the lines of:

-Stated small territorial goals: Baltic states remain free, Poland gets a corridor between E. Prussia and Lithuania (Lithuania loses a little territory but keeps soverignty,) and status-quo ante borders w/ Romania.
-Invading force drives deep enough to fight entirely in USSR territory and then bleed the Red Army white.

Can 500K do that and keep casualties down far enough to remain effective before draining Germany's economy and manpower?

 

[Elfwine]

Ok, thanks for clarifying 500K invasion force plus reserves, that makes things a lot more plausible in my eyes. When I think about a plausible, sane route to defeat the USSR with a small but advanced Heer, I'm just imagining something along the lines of:

-Stated small territorial goals: Baltic states remain free, Poland gets a corridor between E. Prussia and Lithuania (Lithuania loses a little territory but keeps soverignty,) and status-quo ante borders w/ Romania.
-Invading force drives deep enough to fight entirely in USSR territory and then bleed the Red Army white.

Can 500K do that and keep casualties down far enough to remain effective before draining Germany's economy and manpower?

Yeah, I should have mentioned that second half (the reserves) at the start of the argument - I was thinking about as in "500k can fight the main fights" and forgot about explaining what handles the rest.

So I think so, up to a point. Assuming very good generalship and said reserves to mean that the 500k-ish force is able to act as a field army and not be tied up suppressing people and so on.

But "draining" to some extent is probably inevitable just because there's no way any possible war with the USSR will be quick and bloodless - at best it's going to involve some serious pounding to make the point clear, and sheer attrition will deplete the spearheads even if the Fewest But Best smash Soviet armies as well as OTL if not better. And as you noted, heightened R&D is going to be expensive - even just pushing it to the highest OTL levels is not cheap.

But if the alternative is OTL, this is probably affordable. IF the Germans can ensure they have the tech, which is easier said than done with a POD in the '30s (OTL's start to serious rearmament). POD in the 20s and I'd be fine with asserting it, weak Weimar state or no. But it starting the basis for a new Heer to be built should be doable - 100k men as a solid cadre is a lot more feasible for a smaller army than one so big that new units have to become cadres for even newer units.

 

[Kongzilla]

The thing is though, the Germans might be fighting a defensive battle. And by the Time USSR forces come face to face with German resistance they'll have to have pushed through Poland and Lithuania at the very least and Potentially Romania, Hungary and other Axis allied Nations. So Germany is probably going to find itself with a force of More than 500k plus reserves that they haven't had to pay for.

 

[lycan]

If Hitler died early, his successor might not have been so obsessed with conquering the Soviet Union. If the two countries managed to sign a non-agression pact, it might last. If they didn't sign such a pact, maybe we'd have a three-way cold war.

 

[Elfwine]

If Hitler died early, his successor might not have been so obsessed with conquering the Soviet Union. If the two countries managed to sign a non-agression pact, it might last. If they didn't sign such a pact, maybe we'd have a three-way cold war.

Given the ideological issues Nazism has with Communism, given the general insanity of the Nazi party . . .

 

[Kongzilla]

Yea there would be a non aggression pact. It wouldn't last very long though. Somebody is going to attack.

How many Axis supported coups could take place in various countries just before or during the 50s cold war just to shake things up a little bit. How much better off would Germany be if she could secure imports from China.

 

[Flubber]

How much better off would Germany be if she could secure imports from China.

Imports from China? Just what do you think China is exporting in the 1940s and 1950s that could help Germany?

 

[FickleCrossroad]

But "draining" to some extent is probably inevitable just because there's no way any possible war with the USSR will be quick and bloodless - at best it's going to involve some serious pounding to make the point clear, and sheer attrition will deplete the spearheads even if the Fewest But Best smash Soviet armies as well as OTL if not better. And as you noted, heightened R&D is going to be expensive - even just pushing it to the highest OTL levels is not cheap.

Here's a random thought that I've considered for a similar scenario of a limited expansion of a small but very professional Heer:
-Whatever the personnel of your total active duty force structure is, have an equal amount (fighting force,) and whatever is needed to support the AD logisitcial structure.
-Train around the concept of mating reserve units with AD units, so in the event of war, the AD regiments are double-strength on paper.
-Start with a 4:1 AD:Reserve ratio, and use reserves to replace casualties, and the remaining AD to rotate in for R&R/rearguard duties to spell the front-line forces.

Plausible?

Also, noting the 500K invasion force, I'm assuming a total AD Heer structure of 750K troops, because I doubt by 1940 France could be trusted to sit on the sidelines by whoever leads the show in Berlin. Considering you'd also want your first-string reservists trained up on modern gear, you may be sending 500K into the USSR with higher technology, but you'd be building up to equip 1M.

 

[Elfwine]

Here's a random thought that I've considered for a similar scenario of a limited expansion of a small but very professional Heer:
-Whatever the personnel of your total active duty force structure is, have an equal amount (fighting force,) and whatever is needed to support the AD logisitcial structure.
-Train around the concept of mating reserve units with AD units, so in the event of war, the AD regiments are double-strength on paper.
-Start with a 4:1 AD:Reserve ratio, and use reserves to replace casualties, and the remaining AD to rotate in for R&R/rearguard duties to spell the front-line forces.

Plausible?

Also, noting the 500K invasion force, I'm assuming a total AD Heer structure of 750K troops, because I doubt by 1940 France could be trusted to sit on the sidelines by whoever leads the show in Berlin. Considering you'd also want your first-string reservists trained up on modern gear, you may be sending 500K into the USSR with higher technology, but you'd be building up to equip 1M.

I think that's feasible - sort of like the idea of two battalion regiments with one battalion at war and one recruiting/training, only on a large scale.

And yeah, somehow or another France needs to be at least kept out of Germany. Whether one does by attacking (tactically) first.

Even if this Germany is fervently anti-Communist (and seen as primarily that), France does not want a strong Germany that is disregarding limits on its military.

 

[juanml82]

Wouldn't a 500K army be quickly surrounded by a far more numerous mobile force? The front at the eastern front would be huge, 500,000 men probably wouldn't be able to defend it.

 

[Elfwine]

Wouldn't a 500K army be quickly surrounded by a far more numerous mobile force? The front at the eastern front would be huge, 500,000 men probably wouldn't be able to defend it.

500,000 men aren't expected to defend it. And a far more numerous enemy force that isn't a match in quality will be cut to ribbons.

 

[Robert]

1. No Hitler, no war, so he still have to be in charge.

2. The only way the war doesn't start in 1939 is if the Western allies don't go to war over Poland. They make strong diplomatic protest but do nothing.

3. Churchill becomes Prime Minister after Chamberlain leaves office in 1940 due to health reasons. Churchill builds up Britain's Military especially it's navy, but can not go to war.

4. The German Navy has Bismark, Tirpitz, and Graf Zeppelin at the start of the war with Russian in May 1941 (they never invaded Yugoslavia or Greece, and there is no Africa Korps.)

5. Germans are using Panzer IIIs because they never learned any lessons from the Battle of France or North Africa.

6. Western Allied and U.S. Military Development are also slower as they have no experience against the Blitzkrieg.

7. Japan might go to war against Netherlands without involving British Empire or U.S., and easily conquer Dutch East Indies.

 

[juanml82]

500,000 men aren't expected to defend it. And a far more numerous enemy force that isn't a match in quality will be cut to ribbons.

Quantity has a quality of its own. 500,000 men advance all across the thousands of miles of front. A sharp counterattack opens a whole at some point along the front, and its bled badly. Fresh Soviet reserves from the rear push through that area and cut the German's supply lines. With a bit of luck a similar maneouver allow the more numerous Soviets to penetrate from another side and encircle a German Army Group.
The Germans can't replace material losses fast enough, the front collapses trying to save the encircled group and stop the Soviet counterattack. The German invasion stops and the Soviets take the initiative.

Think of Operation Typhoon, but without enough forces to destroy the Soviet forces at Kiev. The Germans take the city, and are cut off by the Soviet offensive from the south.

 

[Elfwine]

Quantity has a quality of its own.

A delusion favored by those with no understanding of war.

500,000 men advance all across the thousands of miles of front. A sharp counterattack opens a whole at some point along the front, and its bled badly. Fresh Soviet reserves from the rear push through that area and cut the German's supply lines. With a bit of luck a similar maneouver allow the more numerous Soviets to penetrate from another side and encircle a German Army Group.

500,000 men are not going to be attacking "all across the thousand miles of front", and a "sharp counterattack" is going to find out the hard way why professionals beat amateurs.

Especially given that this force is much more mechanized and mobile than its opponent.

The Germans can't replace material losses fast enough, the front collapses trying to save the encircled group and stop the Soviet counterattack. The German invasion stops and the Soviets take the initiative.

Think of Operation Typhoon, but without enough forces to destroy the Soviet forces at Kiev. The Germans take the city, and are cut off by the Soviet offensive from the south.

Comparing an understrength underequipped army to this is not compatible at all.

 

[juanml82]

500,000 men are not going to be attacking "all across the thousand miles of front", and a "sharp counterattack" is going to find out the hard way why professionals beat amateurs.

Especially given that this force is much more mechanized and mobile than its opponent.

If they don't attack all across the front, then they leave the Soviets a lot of room to maneouver and outflank them.

And it's a much more mechanized and mobile force than the OTL Wehrmacht, not than the Red Army. Not only the USSR has no problem at all with oil, but will also have, in a delayed WWII, more factories and better tanks than the Germans.