What if WW2 started in 1938, Invasion of Czechoslovakia

Here is a thought. What if Poland also joins in takes Danzig and maybe bits of East Prussia. I kind of wonder whether Hitler might be seen as a reasonable Nationalist by history if he were beaten easily and earlier.
 
If Hitler somehow manages to hold out against France & Britain, would Mussolini intervene against the Germans? After all, his alliance with Hitler was more strategic than ideological and it would be interesting seeing the a longer survival of Facism.
 
Here is a thought. What if Poland also joins in takes Danzig and maybe bits of East Prussia. I kind of wonder whether Hitler might be seen as a reasonable Nationalist by history if he were beaten easily and earlier.

Being crushed easily over a war you started pretty much kills your credentials for a reasonable Nationalist. Not so much as OTL, when he pretty much choked up the country's strained logistics trying to gas Jews en-masse, but still pretty embarrassing.
 
The Czechs had built their border defense and had their war plans primarily to deal with a German attack. Germany attacking in to the Sudetenland plays to all the Czech strengths. While Poland and Hungary did nip off bits of Czechoslovakia, this was not until after the Czechs had lost at Munich, and subsequently had been occupied. If Germany and Czechoslovakia are going at it, with France at least de jure involved, neither Poland nor Hungary is going to do anything to help the Germans and potentially piss of the French and possibly even the British. The Czech border with Austria was not as well defended, and therefore an attack from the south would cause more potential problems. The problem the Germans have is that their forces would be stretched to attack through the Sudetenland and from Austria, and yet leave enough troops on the French border, and potential the Polish border/East Prussia. As has been suggested, the Poles, who were willing enough to nip off part of Czechoslovakia, might very well be willing to take Danzig or other bits if Germany is tied up or seen to be losing. The point of that is that the German General Staff cannot totally denude eastern forces for use against Czechoslovakia.
 
The Czechs had built their border defense and had their war plans primarily to deal with a German attack. Germany attacking in to the Sudetenland plays to all the Czech strengths. While Poland and Hungary did nip off bits of Czechoslovakia, this was not until after the Czechs had lost at Munich, and subsequently had been occupied. If Germany and Czechoslovakia are going at it, with France at least de jure involved, neither Poland nor Hungary is going to do anything to help the Germans and potentially piss of the French and possibly even the British. The Czech border with Austria was not as well defended, and therefore an attack from the south would cause more potential problems. The problem the Germans have is that their forces would be stretched to attack through the Sudetenland and from Austria, and yet leave enough troops on the French border, and potential the Polish border/East Prussia. As has been suggested, the Poles, who were willing enough to nip off part of Czechoslovakia, might very well be willing to take Danzig or other bits if Germany is tied up or seen to be losing. The point of that is that the German General Staff cannot totally denude eastern forces for use against Czechoslovakia.
Border with Austria was indeed not so well protected. However two Czechoslovak armies were concentrated in Moravia which due to timely and quick mobilization were able to prepare their field positions. In southern Moravia dams were ready to be busted to stop German break through from Austria.
Also most of Czechoslovak reserves were concentrated either in Moravia or western Slovakia. So both armies in Moravia could be reinforced as well in case Hungarian try something 3rd army.
 
@KACKO: IMHO if Germany and Czechoslovakia ar fighting in 1939, especially with France honoring its obligations even if not much activity on the western front, neither Poland nor Hungary will be coming in as co-belligerents with Germany to nip off relatively small bits of Czechoslovakia. Getting those bits for free when the French and British have thrown the Czechs to the wolves is one thing, ITTL another...
 

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Also, I have read Chamberlain was a pretty popular premier, despite the American character assassination. Could he indeed with another election for the Tories against Attlee once this war concludes?
 
@KACKO: IMHO if Germany and Czechoslovakia ar fighting in 1939, especially with France honoring its obligations even if not much activity on the western front, neither Poland nor Hungary will be coming in as co-belligerents with Germany to nip off relatively small bits of Czechoslovakia. Getting those bits for free when the French and British have thrown the Czechs to the wolves is one thing, ITTL another...
1938 you mean. Very likely not. After all Romania put troops on high alert on borfer with Hungary OTL in March 1939. Only after confirmation from Prague that Hungarian actions in Ruthenia are basicilly no Prague concern enymore they stepped down.

Poland theoretically could get at least parts of Tesin as an exchange for their neutrality - Benes at then end few days before Munich kind of made that offer to Poland's president.
 
Also, I have read Chamberlain was a pretty popular premier, despite the American character assassination. Could he indeed with another election for the Tories against Attlee once this war concludes?

Chamberlain's popularity ebbed and flowed rather dramatically after Munich but with a short, victorious war instead there's little doubt he would have been able to win a general election. However, considering his health, he wouldn't have been able to remain on as PM much longer than in OTL.
 

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Chamberlain's popularity ebbed and flowed rather dramatically after Munich but with a short, victorious war instead there's little doubt he would have been able to win a general election. However, considering his health, he wouldn't have been able to remain on as PM much longer than in OTL.

Who would succeed him?, Hoare, Lord Halifax?
 
Really?, he was 43 in 1940, a tad bit young?

He was quite publically popular and the men in grey suits had a liking for him. The inner machinations of the Tory party at this time are often hard to decipher but those are certainly positive attributes.
 

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He was quite publically popular and the men in grey suits had a liking for him. The inner machinations of the Tory party at this time are often hard to decipher but those are certainly positive attributes.

Eden, Foreign Secretary, would presumably not resign over Chamberlain's "interference" in foreign policy.

There was a feeling that senior Conservatives had figured out that Eden wasn't all that much behind (if I recall the quote correctly) "a glittering facade" - Churchill was supposed to share these feelings and was one of the reasons posited for his refusal to retire as PM and let Eden take over in the mid-1950s.

One young man who was very much on the side of the appeasers and was highly thought of by Chamberlain & (particularly) Halifax along with senior civil servants was RA Butler, although he would later betray a lack of certainty and a degree of irresolution when faced with chances to lead the Tory party.
 
Germany doesn't even make it to Barbarossa. They would get bloodied even if C fights alone, though they would still win in a war to the absolute end.

A coup might be possible and it increase in chances the more time it passes.

Assuming they take C, which is a possibility as long as there is no coup and C fights alone, the humor for war might be bad enough that the high command my forbid Hitler, under threat of removal, that no further war is allowed, specially once Britain and France declare that attacking poland is war.

If by some chance Hitler still declares war on Poland and attacks, the war will be way more difficult for Germany, albeit if Stalin attacks too like in OTL, it will be far easier than the war against C.

By the time Germany makes it to France it will be exhausted, bloodied and the circumstanced that allowed the Battle of France to turn as in OTL have likely been lost. We are talking here about arriving months latter to the battle, and it required a very specific strategy from Germany and very specific blunders for France to lose as they did, such a situation is very difficult to recreate when the circumstances are very different and so much time has passed.

Worst case scenario for Hitler: He gets couped as soon as the war in C becomes difficult, Germany sues for peace.

Best case scenario: He makes it to the fight with France and gets beaten there.
 
I did some checking and its actually worse than I thought.
The Pz Mk II can't penetrate the 35t frontal armour at any range
The 35t can penetrate the Mk II at 1,000yds

So the best Germany can expect is a slow grinding infantry war, in which its low amount of artillery shells is a big issue.
 
Poland theoretically could get at least parts of Tesin as an exchange for their neutrality - Benes at then end few days before Munich kind of made that offer to Poland's president.
Poland only decided to get Teschen when Munich made it clear that France and UK do not care about Czechoslovakia anymore. Pure opportunism. There is zero chance Poland would actively ally with Germany to get it.
 
Poland only decided to get Teschen when Munich made it clear that France and UK do not care about Czechoslovakia anymore. Pure opportunism. There is zero chance Poland would actively ally with Germany to get it.
I didn't say Poland would ally. I said Benes came with this kind of offer. But it was only in one letter to Polish President. Benes was for long time pressed by Czechoslovak Generals to came to some kind of agreement with Poland. Generals wanted to have border with Poland safe - friendly neutral Poland would be appreciated. Unfortunatelly Benes didn't managed that.
If you look at placement of Czechoslovak armies (and divisions), border with Poland was covered mostly only in Tesin area.
Actually there is possibility if war started and Czechoslovakia would need to clear Tesin area due to pressure of Germans from north, Czechoslovak would prefer Poland move in empty Tesin.
 
If the Czechs resist the bullying and Germany invades, regardless of the progress of the fighting, would this butterfly the Ribbentrop-Molotov treaty?

I get impression that Stalin only did the deal to buy himself some time to prepare against Hitler, when the Entente didn't appear to be willing to stand up against Germany.

If there's a Czech war, the Entente can't totally ignore it, however much they might prefer to. So Stalin won't feel quite so threatened. Even if he doesn't - or can't - provide direct help to the Czechs.
 
If the Czechs resist the bullying and Germany invades, regardless of the progress of the fighting, would this butterfly the Ribbentrop-Molotov treaty?

I get impression that Stalin only did the deal to buy himself some time to prepare against Hitler, when the Entente didn't appear to be willing to stand up against Germany.

If there's a Czech war, the Entente can't totally ignore it, however much they might prefer to. So Stalin won't feel quite so threatened. Even if he doesn't - or can't - provide direct help to the Czechs.
OTL Soviet ambassador in Prague was hinting that Czechoslovakia just need to ask Moscow for help even without France. However logistic would be bitch. Poland wouldn’t allow transfers and even Romania is questionable though they could pretend they didn’t notice overflying aircrafts.

OTL Czechoslovak air force commander asked Soviet military attache how soon can Soviet send aircrafts to Eastern Slovakia. Despite him urging, answer from Moscow never come.

As to France. Benes’s biggest fear was if Czechoslovakia do not agree with Munich it will be Czechoslovakia to be seen guilty of provoking war.

Theoretically there is chance if Czechoslovakia somehow managed to deffend itself for prolonged period and bleed Wehrmacht political situation in France may push them to do something. Would it be enough to matter is different story.
 
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