What if WW2 started in 1938, Invasion of Czechoslovakia
- Thread starter mazzil68
- Start date
The Germans were not ready for a war in 1938. They would have gotten their asses handed to them pretty quickly.
Why and in what circumstances does fighting start in 1938? What is your point (or are your points) of departure? When do events start to diverge from the original timeline?
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More information required.
The Wehrmacht would probably be remembered as the paper tiger it always had been, even more so without the monster Panzers that characterise much of WWII. They could still beat the Czechs, especially if they agitate an insurgency among the Sudeten Germans behind the Czech lines. But the toll they would suffer trying to break through the Czech alpine defences would make Allied efforts to rein Hitler in (i.e. conquer Germany) way easier.
OTL could not have given Hitler a more total victory, at almost zero cost.
OTL could not have given Hitler a more total victory, at almost zero cost.
In my opinion best scenario for Cczechoslovakia would be after French recommended mobilization and after some small SS detachments were detected in if i remember correctly in As area. Then Czechoslovak government should proclaim we are attacked country and in state of war with Nazi Germany. French woudln't have much room to back up as they already recommended mobilization. By letting more negotiation go on Benes fucked up and by letting Sudetland go committed high treason. He should hang after war and not be celebrated as President libarator.
Sudetland German insurgency was quickly defeated OTL once Czechoslovak army stepped in and Sudetendeutsches Freikorps "freedom" fighter run to Germany with their tails between their legs.
What do YOU think would happen?
That is how this Board works. Its called a discussion board, not an observation board. State your position to open the conversation.
wikipipes
Banned
I know that the SS was perhaps weaker in 1938, but is the prospect of a institutional civil war likely?
Only if the Wehrmacht is devided. The SA was defanged at this point and the SS had no real combat worthy units.
By whom? If we go by OTL, then France and Britain will sit around doing as little as possible for as long as possible...
Geon
Donor
Neither UK nor France were willing to go to war over Czechoslovakia. It is likely Hitler gets the nice little war he wanted. Which bloodies his army preparatory to his moves on Poland and elsewhere.
It is also likely that such a war serves as a "wake-up" call to the UK and France that they need to step up preparations for an inevitable conflict with Germany. How this would effect WWII when it finally did kick off with Poland I leave to further discussion.
It is also likely that such a war serves as a "wake-up" call to the UK and France that they need to step up preparations for an inevitable conflict with Germany. How this would effect WWII when it finally did kick off with Poland I leave to further discussion.
Actually France was, but Chamberlain was not ready to back up France. Daladier & the others remembered the 1923/24 failure of the major Entente nation's to back up France enforcing the Vesailles treaty. Hence the 1938 Munich settlement.
Both Britain an France started rearmament programs after the Munich Crisis, but it took some 20 months to see results. Rushing into production at that point would have resulted in obsolecent models. They both wanted to complete development of better equipment, & reorganize. Maybe a few months could have been gained in preparation, but perhaps less.
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Indeed. Hitler wanted a war, but when the Allies gifted him everything on a silver platter, he just rolled with it and went on with Poland. I'm pretty sure if he had gotten his war, he'd be enacting that Downfall meme to the march of invading Poles (not to say they were crap, but they were definitely not fully prepared for war IOTL.)
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didn't the French begin their following the occupation of the Rhineland?
They had a number of programs at various stages in the R&D/Production/Sustainement cycle. For the ground forces the completion of the CORF (Maginot Line) project dominated from inception through completion in 1938. R & D for a new generation of vehicles, including tanks had started earlier, as far back s 1934. Ditto for field artillery & AT guns. The problem was these actions were fragmentary & not a general cohesive policy for rapid rearmament. The overall trend was for a slow development driven by national politics & industrial policy.
For both the ground and air forces the effect of the Munich crisis was to force the Chamber of Deputies & the assorted Ministers to face the need for systematic & rapid rearmament policy and most important to fund it. The real constraint on the French army and air force interwar was not doctrine or leadership, but the Deputies. They controlled the budget. For he most part the legislators were fiscally conservative & adamant about keeping taxes and expenditures in line. The fortification program was sold in part as a cost effective way to secure the eastern frontier, cheaper than a standing army. The reduction of training, including officers schooling, staff training, conscript service (reduced to 18 months) , and reservist training were all driven by the fiscal conservatives. In this they were aided by the left, who saw expensive technical development in the military as a waste of tax revenue that should go to social services.
The problems of French doctrine derived from the budget they were handed. Under the nazis the new Wehrmacht leaders never had this level of constraint. Deficit spending and financial trickery enabled officer and conscript training at more than double the level of the French Army. The Munich crisis forced the French leaders both in the Ministires and among the Deputies to start disbursing the funds to renovate the military. Other factors were passing laws that led eventually to the effective nationalization of the aircraft industry. A action that was necessary to break the old policies for aircraft development & procurement. There were other similar actions taken post Munich. Most of these actions had been proposed or planned long before, but had not had the legislative support & the money to systematically develop them.
Doughty in 'Seeds of Disaster' touches on this problem of budget as does Shrier in his analysis of the fall of the Third Republic. Horne, Chapman, Jackson & others refer to this same problem from various angles.
There are a number of possible actions as a result, but they basically all end up with Germany getting hammered.
(1) CZ rolls over and plays dead in a couple of weeks. Very unlikely, really. They had a good army, and unless the country disintegrates politically, are going to give Germany a bloody nose. Germany will also lose the equipment it gathered, and probably lose the production (factories destroyed during the fighting or sabotaged). So at the best, in 1939 Germany is noticeably weaker. The only advantage for them is the earlier fighting probably has them operating more efficiently in Poland. Remember that at this point in time the best German tank is the Mk II.
(2) CZ fights for some time (a few months). The longer, the more damage is done to the German army and the LW. Also the greater the chance France at least will step in. Like option 1, but worse. Germany has a BIG problem in insufficient levels of shells, etc.
(3) France and or Russia honour their treaties. Germany takes even longer to beat CZ (they now have to leave considerable forces on the French border, even if the French do nothing). Depending on how well the CZ resistance goes, at some point France will have to do something. It's difficult for Russia to help directly due to the geography, but the longer things go on the greater chance a transit deal is arranged. Germany is now fighting 2/3 enemies.
(4) As 3, but Britain also decides to weigh in. This is a killer for Germany, as no matter what happens on the battlefield, they cant get any resources past the RN blockade, and now cant get them from Russia. Its very unlikely any of the Eastern European countries will help, they don't want to make themselves targets. Even if Russia is doing nothing much, the absence of Russian resources kills German production in a year or two. While a coup is probably a lot less likely than post-war accounts indicate, in this situation I could see it happening, the odds are simply too great. Having to keep forces in the East, for example, probably means an attack on France will fail.
Yes, their enemies are far less prepared in 1938, but so is Germany. In fact, Germany got relatively stronger in 1938-9 due to its spending, this wont now happen.
(1) CZ rolls over and plays dead in a couple of weeks. Very unlikely, really. They had a good army, and unless the country disintegrates politically, are going to give Germany a bloody nose. Germany will also lose the equipment it gathered, and probably lose the production (factories destroyed during the fighting or sabotaged). So at the best, in 1939 Germany is noticeably weaker. The only advantage for them is the earlier fighting probably has them operating more efficiently in Poland. Remember that at this point in time the best German tank is the Mk II.
(2) CZ fights for some time (a few months). The longer, the more damage is done to the German army and the LW. Also the greater the chance France at least will step in. Like option 1, but worse. Germany has a BIG problem in insufficient levels of shells, etc.
(3) France and or Russia honour their treaties. Germany takes even longer to beat CZ (they now have to leave considerable forces on the French border, even if the French do nothing). Depending on how well the CZ resistance goes, at some point France will have to do something. It's difficult for Russia to help directly due to the geography, but the longer things go on the greater chance a transit deal is arranged. Germany is now fighting 2/3 enemies.
(4) As 3, but Britain also decides to weigh in. This is a killer for Germany, as no matter what happens on the battlefield, they cant get any resources past the RN blockade, and now cant get them from Russia. Its very unlikely any of the Eastern European countries will help, they don't want to make themselves targets. Even if Russia is doing nothing much, the absence of Russian resources kills German production in a year or two. While a coup is probably a lot less likely than post-war accounts indicate, in this situation I could see it happening, the odds are simply too great. Having to keep forces in the East, for example, probably means an attack on France will fail.
Yes, their enemies are far less prepared in 1938, but so is Germany. In fact, Germany got relatively stronger in 1938-9 due to its spending, this wont now happen.