What if World War I ended in a stalemate?

What if as a result of the prolonged stalemate on the Western Front after the Battle of the Marne in 1914, the Allies and the Central Powers signed a form of armistice which ended the war in a stalemate, somewhat like the Korean War in 1953, with neither side declaring victory?
 
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You'd need to butterfly away American involvement at the very least.

This sounds like it'd happen in 1914 or 1915, so that's no problem. I'm not sure it's too plausible, but if the Germans and the Russians both did worse initially, then the war might seem like it's going nowhere.
 
I can't see that happening, not in 1914-1915. Too much was on the line, too much pride, too much imperialism, no one have truly experience the horrors, or lost of the Great War. No one was willing to just call the whole thing off, the public would never allow it.

World War 1 ending in a stalemate really comes down to America never coming. Money for the UK and France dry up, and neither side can gain ground. So, a white peace is called in 1918-1919, and the War comes to a end.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
World War 1 ending in a stalemate really comes down to America never coming. Money for the UK and France dry up, and neither side can gain ground. So, a white peace is called in 1918-1919, and the War comes to a end.
That would result in a stalemate in the West and in a German victory in the East, though.
 

Deleted member 97083

That would result in a stalemate in the West and in a German victory in the East, though.
That seems like it would be interpreted as a victory in Germany and a defeat in Britain and France. Unless Britain and France take land from the Ottoman Empire.
 
That would result in a stalemate in the West and in a German victory in the East, though.
That's meaningless in the long run. If Germany and the other powers are unable to mount offensive operations, they are certainly not able to continue occupying former Russian lands and they'll be kicked out by the locals or a resurgent Russia.

What about A-H and Italy? By 1918, both are about to collapse (ITTL Italy shouldn't able to get reinforcements from the Americans or the rest of the Entente); a white peace should be possible if Vitorrio Veneto doesn't happen. It pleases nobody, but I think national/imperial pride will be ignored when the threat of revolution is very, very real. IMO A-H has a 50/50 chance of collapsing anyways in a late-victory or white peace scenario. Either it fundamentally reforms nigh-immediately out of a generalised fear of revolution and the fact that they are easy pickings if they don't make the Empire work somehow, or the separatists take their chances and hope that the new world order will be sympathetic to them before the major powers recover. That very much depends on the general post-war context and situation in Europe.
 
That would result in a stalemate in the West and in a German victory in the East, though.

Or they manage to hang on to the German colonies.

Trouble is, all the odds and sods which the Entente has picked up don't remotely compare in value with the huge chunks of Europe that the CP has overrun. So a stalemate is, in effect, a CP win - and would certainly be viewed as such by the populations on both sides. Once it was learned that a cease-ffire had been concluded w/o a German withdrawal from Belgium, most Brits and French would take that as an admission that they had lost, and morale would crumble pretty fast.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That's meaningless in the long run. If Germany and the other powers are unable to mount offensive operations, they are certainly not able to continue occupying former Russian lands and they'll be kicked out by the locals or a resurgent Russia.

The Eastern Front in WWI was more mobile than the Western Front in WWI, though.

Also, as for Russia, please keep in mind that Germany + Ukraine combined would have a population equal or greater to that of Russia.

What about A-H and Italy? By 1918, both are about to collapse (ITTL Italy shouldn't able to get reinforcements from the Americans or the rest of the Entente); a white peace should be possible if Vitorrio Veneto doesn't happen. It pleases nobody, but I think national/imperial pride will be ignored when the threat of revolution is very, very real. IMO A-H has a 50/50 chance of collapsing anyways in a late-victory or white peace scenario. Either it fundamentally reforms nigh-immediately out of a generalised fear of revolution and the fact that they are easy pickings if they don't make the Empire work somehow, or the separatists take their chances and hope that the new world order will be sympathetic to them before the major powers recover. That very much depends on the general post-war context and situation in Europe.

In regards to A-H, if it still collapses, Germany will probably have to act as an arbitrator in any territorial disputes which will arise afterwards. Also, the newly independent countries in this region will probably be compelled by Germany to join Mitteleuropa.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Trouble is, all the odds and sods which the Entente has picked up don't remotely compare in value with the huge chunks of Europe that the CP has overrun. So a stalemate is, in effect, a CP win - and would certainly be viewed as such by the populations on both sides. Once it was learned that a cease-ffire had been concluded w/o a German withdrawal from Belgium, most Brits and French would take that as an admission that they had lost, and morale would crumble pretty fast.
To be honest, I was thinking of Germany agreeing to withdraw from Belgium in exchange for being allowed to keep its Brest-Litovsk gains in the East.
 
A peace agreement on the basis of no annexations (which had been Wilson's desire all along) isn't wholly implausible even in 1915. But that would mean a reversion to the unstable status quo of early 1914. A third Balkan War would be inevitable in the near future, and there could be a different set of alliances in place by the time of the next clash involving the major powers.
 
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