What if? What if Italy wasn't taken over by Mussolini, but still supported Hitler?

During the CP period Italy was close to Germany, there were lot of German investment in the penisula and they were respected the problem were with A-H (we declared war on Germany only in 1916) and even after there were close relations. Bulgaria and Hungary were intended as ally against Yugoslavia (basically to pile up and divide the spoil). Italy join the war for the lavish promise of Britain and France not to help Serbia (who was seen as a rival for balkan influence) and even during the conflict the relations between Rome and Belgrade were frosty, a planned offensive was aborted because the two command were not talking with each other.

I waswn't clear. I meant Montenegro
 
Had Vittorio Emanuele ordered to the the army to wipe out the fascist rabble, probably Italy would have had a conservative goverment for several years, bent on solving the economic problems (good luck!). There wouldn't have been any military adventure. Probably there would have been a lot of less spending for the army than OTL. So in the end the italian army could be even worse ITTL.

The problem were the socialists there were fear that at the end the choice were between fascist and communist, with a looming civil war so Vittorio Emanuele chose who seem the most plyable and less dangerous of the two...a very unwise choice, Benny as strategic thinker was an idiot, but as political man? He was the damned best at the time. The solution was basically crush the fascist and enstablish an authoritarian and conservative government with the king direct imput (maybe using Armando Diaz in a visible position, it was greatly respected by the veterans) and expect troubles for a time, after a while things can be better but for some years Italy was stable as the Weimar republic (probably a little more but not much). If a democracy survives i don't expect a lot of adventurism in Ethiopia or Spain (something but not at the Fascist level).

As for getting into an alliance with Hitler, you should craft a situation where Italy has everything to gain and nothing to loose standing with the germans. Not easy, if you consider that even OTL the italian intervention was in doubt till the last moment.

Neutral leaning for Germany can be done, but the only mean for a non fascist Italy to ally with Adolf is that Yugoslavia attack Italy and that France and UK tacitly approve Belgrade move and give her diplomatic and some material aid (covertly). Or maybe a worse treaty for Italy, in OTL Yugoslavia demanded even Gorizia, Trieste and Istria, if Wilson make UK and France accept that and in the seguent years no other compensation was done ( Jubaland was ceded by UK in 1924 and the border with Libya was redefinited, yeah it was all just desert but always better than nothing), the italian government will be very tempted to form an alliance with anyone who can permit the annexation of the italian land in yugoslavia and help in the creation of an italian sphere of influence and a bigger colonial empire, if it done in spite of her trecherous former ally even better.

It's not only a matter of "compensations". In order to have an Italy firmly entrenched into the CP's camp you have to:


  • Solve the diplomatic problems between Italy and A-H (a bit of common sense would have helped both of them a lot)
  • Get the economic war between Italy and France far worse than OTL.
  • Add some colonial troubles. For example France supporting Turkey during the Libyan war.
  • Make the french diplomats really dumb, since they were actively trying to separate Italy from Germany.

- Yes common sense in 1915...a lot of would have helped a lot
- Maybe France renege the secret treaty of 1902 who give Italy free hand in Libya because thing that the OE it's a more important stabilizating entity but in this case Italy will stop the invasion (Giolitti was not suicidal he know that we can't take France alone so it will go to the diplomitic table, getting just a treaty port, probably Tripoli and some economic concessions) the good part of this is that now the army and the economy of Italy are in a better shape for a general war (in 1914 reserve were depleted and the economy frail due to the precedent war)
 
Or the Germans strong-arm them into compliance.

The Kaiser himself will probably be needed to coerce the austro-hungarian and the italians in a treaty, but if Giolitti is still in power and Alberto Pollio don't die of heart attack (was the predecessor of Cadorna and very in favor of the alliance with Germany and A-H) it's at least possible
 
Luke Dalton and Markus make worthwhile points.

If you wish to take a little more long-view PoD, a good way to make sure Itay gets serious about its WWII committments, notwithstanding the political leadership, is to make Italy side with the CP in WWI, but make the CP lose (say due to early US intervention for the Entente). Peace treaty losses would not harm Italy overmuch (most likely akin to OTL 1947, plus Aosta at worst), it would be able to rearm when Germany does, Germany would be seen as natural ally, the divisive presence of Ausitra-Hungary would still be gone, and there would be a rather stronger national committment to revanchism, which would easily ensure better military preparation for a rematch. During the rearmament, the Italian Army would be rebuilt from scratch with innovative weapons and tactics. Of course, it would be a different strategic role of Italy in WWII, since there would be no African colonies and a Navy as small as the German one (although quite possibly rebuilt in a more innovative way, like the Japanese did), and war effort would be more land-oriented, say a successful Italian invasion of Yugoslavia while Germany is offing Poland, then an effective combined Italo-German effort against France.

If this happens, unlikely IMO, then where will the postwar border between Austria and Italy run?
 
If this happens, unlikely IMO, then where will the postwar border between Austria and Italy run?

Post wwI and after A-H empire gone? If Austria is later annexed to Germany, almost surely actual OTL border sans South-Tyrol but with a easily defended border for Italy ( maybe some more land around Trieste and in Friuli-venezia-Giulia but not much more
 
Without Mussolini butterflies would make it very hard for Hitler to take over Germany.

In case of defeat in WWI, Benny it's probably still here, but even if he butterlyed away and with him Hitler, revanchism and the will and desire for revenge against the Versailles Treaty will be here so at the end a great war or a series of little war in the Balkans and East Europe will be almost assured
 

yourworstnightmare

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In case of defeat in WWI, Benny it's probably still here, but even if he butterlyed away and with him Hitler, revanchism and the will and desire for revenge against the Versailles Treaty will be here so at the end a great war or a series of little war in the Balkans and East Europe will be almost assured
Sure, but Fascists won't be accepted by the Conservatives without the Mussolini experience (probably seen as some kind of Communism). A revanchist Germany is almost assured. A Germany lead by Hitler, I don't think so.
 
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