alternatehistory.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colmar_Freiherr_von_der_Goltz


I am going to handwave away exactly why Wilhelm II goes with Goltz over Moltke. Maybe Wilhelm read one of Goltz books.



Goltz was a noted military writer of the day and had some very specific ideas. Now Goltz came out of the Franco Prussian war with some ideas about the nature of future wars.


First Goltz was impressed by the ability of the French state to continue the fight for a full year after Sedan. In particular the mass armies the New Republic kept raising.

Second he was a very firm advocate of largest possible military size in peace and preparation for war.

Third Goltz was of the opinion that any future war would be a long drawn out affair.

Forth Goltz believed that the Franco German border should be heavily fortified.


Now even if he was made Chief of General Staff that doesn’t mean he would have unlimited ability to put his ideas into effect. The Defense Minister sets the army budget or rather asks the Reichstag to approve his requests, which is 5 years in length. 1907 and 1912 are the dates for the budgets except special budgets like the 1913 one in the aftermath of the Balkan Wars. The German Navy had been sucking more and more of the budget for years and whatever Tirpitz’s faults he was without a doubt Wilhelm II’s most skilled minister in terms of working the Reichstag and he will fight to protect his service. Also there is Wilhelm’s worry on expanding the size of the army too much and letting in middle class shop keepers as officers. This directly clashes with what would be I suspect Goltz first objective and that is creating more formations and expanding the army.


So my question is what could a Chief of the General Staff achieve in place of Moltke with a start date of 1906? Assuming few butter flies in international relations, IE the July Crisis still occurs on schedule.


We can talk about French and Russian better flies in response to Germany but for now I am interested in nailing down what Germany could reasonable achieve.


Michael
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