What if Visigothic Spain was internally strong from 710-730?

If Visigothic Spain is internally strong/united in 710-730


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raharris1973

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Is that enough to stop the Islamic conquest at the time?

Is it enough to stop Islamic conquest of the peninsula ever?

Does any place else end up serving as a Ommayad breakaway state or does this end up not happening anywhere?

How do Frankish-Visigothic relations, and their mutual borders, evolve down the centuries?

Does the Visigothic Spanish kingdom or other Christian successors end up doing reconquista, but of North Africa?

Does some other location - North Africa, Egypt, Sicily or something end up with a reputation as a vibrant center of Jewish cultural life?

How does Spanish society evolve differently?

Poll attached, multiple choice
 

Lunarwolf

Banned
First and foremost for your poll...

There hasn't ever been an Ommoyad dynasty ruling over muslim Spain.

They were called the Umayyad.
 
First and foremost for your poll...

There hasn't ever been an Ommoyad dynasty ruling over muslim Spain.

They were called the Umayyad.

Yeah, I think it's because in Spanish they are called 'Omeyas'.

I voted for Visigoths conquering North Africa, but it would depend on how long they can stay united and strong.

The effective control of the Caliphate over the former Mauritania was brief and precarious, so if the Visigoths can prevent the conquest for two or three decades (ideally until 750s), the Caliphate would lose any capacity of action west of former Numidia.

The Visigoths would have in that case, at least, try to control the coastline from Oran to Tanger (in fact, they controlled Ceuta prior to the conquest) in order to prevent future attacks.
 
Is that enough to stop the Islamic conquest at the time?

Depends how strong - they may only lose some territory or none at all.

Is it enough to stop Islamic conquest of the peninsula ever?
As said, depends on the strength of that Kingdom

Does any place else end up serving as a Ommayad breakaway state or does this end up not happening anywhere?
As answered elsewhere possibly Mauritania

How do Frankish-Visigothic relations, and their mutual borders, evolve down the centuries?
Depends on the size of the VIsigoth Kingdom and it's internal strength. If Francia and them are "christian brothers in arms" against invaders then better than if Visigothia was whole - since Francia would try to dominate its neighbours.

Does the Visigothic Spanish kingdom or other Christian successors end up doing reconquista, but of North Africa?

They will certainly try as OTL in any Reconquista scenario

Does some other location - North Africa, Egypt, Sicily or something end up with a reputation as a vibrant center of Jewish cultural life?

Depends on the Reconquista

How does Spanish society evolve differently?
Too huge to answer as so dependent how Hispania evolves politically.
 

raharris1973

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What would internal strength mean? It's a bit vague.

Fewer internal divisions among the Visigothic nobility, fewer civil wars and fewer people angling to attract Arab or Berber allies to support their own aims.
 
Is that enough to stop the Islamic conquest at the time?
Assuming it would imply a maintained Wittizean hold on the peninsula...
Meaning that rather than "stronger", we have a more unified kingship and authority on a still relativly divided, politically, peninsula.

Yes.
The first raids in early VIIIth century didn't evolved in full scale invasion up to the death of Witizza and the subsequent civil war.
A strong enough Visigothic kingship would have prevented forces to be divided (and frankly, even IOTL, the Islamic victory wasn't that bound to happen) and would have meant a quicker and more decisive answer.

I could see, tough, continued raids for decades in Betica, which would prevent kings to really efficiently deal with Vascon and Aquitain troubles in the North.

Is it enough to stop Islamic conquest of the peninsula ever?
I'd think so : without Islamic conquest of Spain and subsequent raids in Western Europe, we have less ressources to redistribute Arabs and Berbers, and it would imply an increased fiscal pressure on the latters. Basically, I'd bet on an earlier Great Berber Revolt, maybe around the 720's.

Does any place else end up serving as a Ommayad breakaway state or does this end up not happening anywhere?
Well, assuming butterflies prevent Abassid coup to eliminate all pretenders...

Ifriqiya would be a good bet : as Umayyads were the champions of "Arabity" and that Ifriqiya was clearly the place where Berber and Kharidjit threats were more prevalent after Maghrib, I'd say that an Abd al Rahman wannabee would not only go to the region as IOTL, but at least attempt to create a dominion there.

Now, would it last? IOTL the distance and maritime bareer allowed Umayyad Al-Andalus to lives on, in spite of two Abassids invasions/revolts.
Ifriqiya wouldn't benefit from that, at least not as much, so I'd be incline to say "no".

How do Frankish-Visigothic relations, and their mutual borders, evolve down the centuries?

Without Islamic invasion of Spain, and its consequences in Gaul, Eudon's Aquitaine is most likely to be stronger, even if stuck in an opposition with Peppinid's Francia.
At term, I'd think Franks would takeover Aquitaine, but that's going to delay their presence on Gothic borders as well.

Visigothic succession crisis regularly ended with one side asking for someone to help. Historically, it meant Byzantine, Frankish and Arabo-Berber intervention.

While a stronger kingship isn't improbable, I couldn't see the issues of the Visigothic Kingdom being resolved. Sooner or later, one side is going to call a neighbour to help him and it's going to be either Berbers, Aquitain or Franks.
Both two firsts aren't going to be that much trouble : one is about disorganized tribal groups, the other have too much trouble on its northern Borders.

Franks on the other hand...I could see them pull a Theodoric and instaure a protectorate de-facto on at least the North-Eastern part of the kingdom, putting Franks as local nobility as well.
That said, it's not bound to happen, and we could have only a situation as in 631 : meaning the Frankish ruler supporting sides and eventually playing arbitle on Visigothic succession, which sooner or later would end as a clientele de facto.

How long could it last? Hard to say giving the butterflies, but in the worst of cases, I could see a mix of Frankish-Gothic nobility "copying-pasting" Frankish structures and pulling a stronger kingship out of it.

Does the Visigothic Spanish kingdom or other Christian successors end up doing reconquista, but of North Africa?
Not immediatly. Maybe in a more distant future, three centuries later, say. But while you'd have the motivations for that, it would be definitely too hard to tell given the butterflies.

Does some other location - North Africa, Egypt, Sicily or something end up with a reputation as a vibrant center of Jewish cultural life?
You already had an important Jewish population in Spain at this point. Even with the persecutions (whom we can doubt the efficiency : not only entiere provinces, such as Gaul, were namely not concerned by them, but even in the others it seems to have been badly applied), you'd have at least a partial equivalent.
The aformentioned Gaul province would be one center, as IOTL up to the XIIIth century, but I think Betica and maybe Tarraconesa would have been regional centers as well.

Of course that depends a lot on how "strong" is the Visigothic kingship. Hegemonic would have meant no great reason to assest one's legitimacy trough religious persecution, not strong enough would have meant a lot of edicts poorly applied, and the middle ground which would have prevented an Arabo-Andalusian-scale situation.

North Africa seems out of question, not because of persecution, but because it would have been tied to much to Arabo-Berber clanism. Egypt and Palestine, as IOTL, are good bets.

How does Spanish society evolve differently?
Linguistically, no Basque and Arabic influence. Meaning no f->h, no jota, etc, and more romance-based vocabulary.
Spanish is going to look a lot more like Occitano-Romance or Italo-Romance languages.
Of course, the North-South orientation of dialects and languages isn't going to be that obvious ITTL, being a legacy of the Reconquista. Basically, I'm expecting *Castillan to be more hegemonic, and present in Valentian region as well than most of Lusitania.

Politically, Spain-Gothia is going to be more akin to other Latin entities : emerging independent principalities, no fueros with more important autonomies, etc.

On matters of identity, religion is going to play a lesser role.
 

raharris1973

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Thanks for the responses-

How did the Muslim conquest end up strengthening Basque linguistic influence that was not there previously?

Would more Gothic words and personal names survive without the Muslim conquest? Or were "barbarian" names like "Recceswinth", "Wamba" and "Wittiza" inevitably going to go out of style in favor of apostolic names (John-Juan, James-Joaquin, Joseph-Jose), kind of like how in England and France names like Offa, Egbert and Childebert eventually dropped out in favor George, Henry, John, Richard, William and Jean?

A question on the Franks- are they going to be a juggernaut in western Europe, no matter what, with or without the use of Poitiers & Tours to build up their reputations? Is the family of Charles Martel still destined for a royal or imperial future even without the Moors?
 
How did the Muslim conquest end up strengthening Basque linguistic influence that was not there previously?
Quite simply, actually : Christian states surviving in northern highlands, and having their cores where Vascon or Cantabrian populations lived, you had an increased mutual influence.
With western Pyrenean regions being an important commercial and cultural road (would it be only trough Santiago pilgrimage) and with the North-South linguistical devellopment...

Interestingly, it could meant a more distinct Vascon or Basque language : more develloped or less so depends about the Gothic policies on it, and its capacity to survive politically.

Would more Gothic words and personal names survive without the Muslim conquest? Or were "barbarian" names like "Recceswinth", "Wamba" and "Wittiza" inevitably going to go out of style in favor of apostolic names (John-Juan, James-Joaquin, Joseph-Jose), kind of like how in England and France names like Offa, Egbert and Childebert eventually dropped out in favor George, Henry, John, Richard, William and Jean?

As for words...I'd expect the more romanized *Spanish, kind of like Occitan or Italian, with less germanic influence than French. Not to say you won't have, and doesn't have, a germanic-based vocabulary, but the absence of an Arabic superstrate isn't going to allow it to devellop it more.

As for names, tough...
You already have a cohabitation between Germanic and Romance names in Gothic Spain, so I don't see why it wouldn't continue.
The mentioned growth of evangelical, biblical and Christian names wasn't clearly established and was made trough "waves" : Carolingian era, re-evangelisation of the XIth century, XIVth century.

While I'd thing equivalents would most probably happen, for the middle term, germanic names are going to be present (while sharing partially with Roman-based names).

(I would point you, tough, that Richard and William are germanic names)

A question on the Franks- are they going to be a juggernaut in western Europe, no matter what, with or without the use of Poitiers & Tours to build up their reputations? Is the family of Charles Martel still destined for a royal or imperial future even without the Moors?
Assuming that the butterflies doesn't have major consequences on northern Gaul (and frankly, I wouldn't see why they would have), Charles Martel is still going to not onlt re-establish his father's hegemony in Francia but as well to increase it as IOTL.

As I tried to point there (while it still a debatable topic), Peppinids were firmly in control of both Neustria and Austrasia, having put allies and clients in the latter after having crushed opponents.
It's less being "destined" than having made the necessary to clear the way before them and rooted possible opposition in the late VIIth and early VIIIth centuries (after the 710's, what we know about rebellions and inner conflicts involve Peppinids vs. Peppinids, and no longer external opponents)

For what matter to Frankish "juggernaut", with an early VIIIth PoD, it would be hardly surprizing to see them growing from a position that was already quite influential in Western Europe, to a really hegemonic one.

While the shift of dominant trade roads (for what mattered Francia and Western Europe) from Byzantine/Mediterranean continuum to Rhine/North Sea in the mid VIIth century, it made Northern Francia (and especially Austrasia, which wasn't exactly secondary before) and Frisians sitting over a commercial hub (giving the latter were firmly pagans, they soon loose their ability to sit on anything).

With an unified, wealthy, and demographically (therefore military) strong Francia, Peppinid hegemony isn't going to leave easily.

That said, ITTL, Aquitaine is certainly going to be stronger and wealthier, and its conquest is going to take more time (especially without the "double front" on Loire and Gothia). I'm not too sure Franks would have the motive to focus all their forces against it.

Interestingly all of this would motive Peppinids to go for Burgundy earlier than IOTL (would it be only because its kingship was tied with Neustrian) but as well to "compensate" for the partial unability to take on Aquitain wealth to fund their structuration (not only in a financial or material ressources point of view, but as an human ressource as well).
Eventually, tough, it would be enough of a necessity to have Frankish-Aquitain wars, as IOTL, focusing on Loire basin in a first time, which may be less fructuous with Eudon not distracted by his southern border.

Now, Eudon wasn't immortal, and waiting for his death and the succession conflicts among his sons could open opportunities : playing one against the other, effectivly dividing the kingdom/duchy in 4 or less (Vasconia, Auvergne, Gascony and Poitou).

We would be talking of less frenchified regions (It wouldn't surprise me if it would be helpful to maintain the linguistical border around Poitou longer than IOTL), with more strong identities and more prone, in case of crisis, to rebel.

IOTL, Charlemagne had to recreate a kingdom in Aquitaine to give room to these, while Franks had a clear domination (and partially because of the Arabo-Andalusian presence south of Pyrenees). Would ITTL Peppinids do the same?
I'd say they'd prefer to keep the region politically factured, and placing related families partially in charge (as with Guilhemids IOTL) would it be as a Gothic marche. Eventually, you'd have a (partial) replacement of local nobility, depending of their loyalty and rebelliousness, but I'd see more a mix (as you did have with Franco-Saxon nobility IOTL) than an outright replacement as IOTL.

Now domination of Aquitaine isn't a given, even in these circumstances. Things could play both in Frankish court and in Aquitaine to see the maintain of an unified entity south of Loire. Would this entity, tough, even with the Lombard alliance be able to maintain itself entierly?
I'm not sure, and while I admit there's still a possibility, I'd see more easily this unified Aquitaine keeping a sub-kingdom status (which would have really interesting consequences on Frankish structuration of defeated Christian duchies/kingdoms).

Could we see the maintain of Bavaria as a duchy within Francia? Would Benevent (already IOTL considered half a part of Francia during Charlemagne's reign) have a similar position (and therefore being considered as part of Francia ITTL if the conquest of Italy goes well).

Interestingly, it's this background that would look more as IOTL, with a parallel to make between the Carolingian Kingdom of Aquitaine, and this sub-kingdom of Aquitaine.

The obvious differences from IOTL would be the lack of clear prestige due to Tours. Giving that this prestige is essentially blostered up by Peppinid historiography, I've little doubt they would find something else to point out how much they rule, and how everybody else sucks.
The Pontifical/Frankish alliance was already in process, would it be only trough the increased Frankish presence in Germania (both in Frankish Germania and outer Germania) and a fight against pagans (Frisians, Saxons, etc.)

Eventually, it depends less from Franks than the butterflies of a more unified Visigothic Kingdom would have in Mediterranean basin.
An absence of Islamic conquest of Spain isn't going to stop Arab raids in Mediterranean sea : if something it may increase them in 740's against Italy, Spain and southern Gaul.

We're talking then about a Papacy that is not only threatened by Lombards but as well by Arabs, which would probably make rear-alliances necessary.

That said, could the Pope can play "the concurrence" with Goths and Franks? The latter are clearly more able, would it be only geographically, to deal with Lombards (which doesn't mean a conquest per say) and have a more strong political structure than Goths (which is why I think a partial "protectorate" of their kingdom by Franks may happen easily enough given the circumstances).

But, playing with the rivalties in the region may help the Papacy to gain a more important political and religious role than IOTL Carolingian Papacy (which isn't going to be hard).

Would the Franks still able to take over Lombards (would it be only because of the threat of rebellion it represent in Francia)? That depends.

I could see an hegemony being established (maybe earlier than IOTL, having possibly Charles intervening in Italy), playing (as in Gothia) over political infighting.
Does that means full conquest? Franks would have the ressources for, but that doesn't mean it's a given that it would happen as IOTL : again more local alliances and autonomy may be expected.

So, while Frankish hegemony would probably still arise, the main question is how this hegemony would be established and how much would it differ from IOTL Carolingia, especially in Mediterranean Europe (while I don't see major differences happening in Northern and Central Europe)
 
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