What if Vichy France joins the Allies

[Alterbob1234]

What if Vichy France joined the Allies. This may seem confusing but let me explain. In October 1940 Vichy France invades Equatorial Africa and drives out the Free French, De Gaulle commits suicide and the only remaining Free French territories are just some islands in the Pacific. Britain perhaps realises that supporting free France is a lost cause and both Vichy and Britain established diplomatic relations. Vichy collaboration with Germany is only the bare minimum it’s needs to be in order for France to survive under the direction of General Weygand who as more influence over Petain in this timeline. This means events like the Syria and Madagascar campaign never happen as Britain had no reason to invade or the situation is resolved diplomatically. Vichy France is truly neutral in this timeline in regards to the war effort. However seeing the German advance halt in the USSR and the U.S join the war, France beings to toy with the idea of re-joining the war. In North Africa France has 135,000 troops plus 60,000 disguised as auxiliary police, in west Africa around 50,000, in Equatorial Africa they could have around 50,000, in Syria 40,000, in Madagascar 10,000. In mainland France they have around 120,000 soldiers, 60,000 gendarmerie and 10,000 anti aircraft personnel. They could perhaps secretly increase these numbers like they did with the auxiliary police in North Africa. This could give France around 600,000 troops plus a nearly fully intact navy and around 1,000 aircraft. This means France would be very useful to the Allies not just in territorial terms but in military strength as well. In January 1942 the French government contacts the Allies in secret expressing its intent to re-join the war. The Allies are obviously very pleased with this and plans are draw up to evacuate the french government and army from mainland France to its colonies in North Africa. In May 1942 the France re-enters the war and 300,000 men are transported to North Africa before the free zone falls to the Germans ( it’s like Dunkirk but in southern France). In French Indochina the garrison is ordered to revolt against the Japanese and conducts guerrilla warfare until the end of the war or moves north into China (maybe a bit of both). This leaves Petain and his government as the rulers of France after the war. A Petainist post war France seems very interesting and I believe in this scenario a sort of med alliance would form between France, Spain and Portugal due to their similar styles of government and that Nationalist dictatorships wouldn’t be discredited so much after the war and perhaps these types of governments pop up in Italy and Greece sometime after the war.

 

[Merrick]

That's more plausible than I thought it was going to be, but it still suffers from two major problems:
Firstly, the plan starts with the evacuation of the now-Allied French forces from southern France, leaving the civilian population (presumably including their families) to the less than tender mercies of the Third Reich. The whole purpose of Vichy in the first place was to avoid a total German occupation of France.
Secondly, how is the "Dunkirk in the South" to be accomplished? Southern France in 1942 is a lot further from North Africa or even Corsica than Dunkirk is from the UK, the closest places the Allies can assemble transport are Gibraltar and Alexandria and the Axis have air superiority over the central Mediterranean. The OTL Battle of Crete show what happens to naval evacuations under uncontested air attack, and Crete to Alexandria is a shorter distance over much less hostile waters than Marseilles to Algiers.

About the only way I think this could work is if Italy never joins the war, there is no North African theatre and the Med remains open. Then after Stalingrad and the US entry to the war Mussolini reads the runes, decides that Hitler is going to lose and make overtures to the Allies. The Italian Army/Airforce is then in a position to help hold a beachhead in southern France while the Allies ship in reinforcements. Of course, you still have the problem of planning all this without some German agent or French Nazi sympathiser finding out and tipping off the Germans to send the panzers in directly. And you'd have to get rid of Petain (heart attack maybe?). The man wasn't a Nazi but he was by 1940 a committed Fascist and IMHO he would never have admitted he'd been wrong to compromise with the Germans.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

What if the Allies support both governments, either forcing them to an armistice and coalition, or secretly funneling arms and lending logistical support to both?

 

[Post]

I think there are a lot of issues with this scenario.

As soon as Vichy France is trying to invade equitorial France, the British are intervening.

If the British re-establish diplomatic relations, the Germans will be watching with interest (and suspicion).

How do they go from having 120,000 soldiers, 60,000 gendarmerie and 10,000 AA personal in mainland France to evacuating 300,000 men?

And how do you get those men to evacuate and leave their families to rejoin the war?

Further AFAIK the Vichy french needed the Germans (or at least the Germans' approval) to equip them with weaponry. Where are they going to get it if they're secretly expanding their army? Also not a small matter is to raise the armies in the colonies, because the British will take notice, and will initially see them as a threat.

May 1942 seems like an odd moment for Vichy France to see the Germans are losing the war: the Germans are pushing towards Stalingrad and Egypt.

Lacking an industrial base and development, in 1942 the Vichy French are stuck with 1940 equipment. So they're not really useful.

As a last (but certainly not least) point: the minimum necessary in order for France to survive will be decided by Hitler, so you have to change his OTL's demands. Don't meet his demands = France is going to be occupied. As soon as it looks like Vichy France is going to join the Allies, they're overrun by the Germans. They have little time and opportunity to evacuate.

 

[Alterbob1234]

I think there are a lot of issues with this scenario.

As soon as Vichy France is trying to invade equitorial France, the British are intervening.

If the British re-establish diplomatic relations, the Germans will be watching with interest (and suspicion).

How do they go from having 120,000 soldiers, 60,000 gendarmerie and 10,000 AA personal in mainland France to evacuating 300,000 men?

And how do you get those men to evacuate and leave their families to rejoin the war?

Further AFAIK the Vichy french needed the Germans (or at least the Germans' approval) to equip them with weaponry. Where are they going to get it if they're secretly expanding their army? Also not a small matter is to raise the armies in the colonies, because the British will take notice, and will initially see them as a threat.

May 1942 seems like an odd moment for Vichy France to see the Germans are losing the war: the Germans are pushing towards Stalingrad and Egypt.

Lacking an industrial base and development, in 1942 the Vichy French are stuck with 1940 equipment. So they're not really useful.

As a last (but certainly not least) point: the minimum necessary in order for France to survive will be decided by Hitler, so you have to change his OTL's demands. Don't meet his demands = France is going to be occupied. As soon as it looks like Vichy France is going to join the Allies, they're overrun by the Germans. They have little time and opportunity to evacuate.

The idea was for them to train an extra 100,000 men as auxiliary police in mainland France that could be used as troops (I should have explained that part better).

I don’t think the British would intervene if France invaded Equatorial Africa as they have enough on their plate already (maybe they send a small force as a good will gesture)

By limited collaboration I meant not allowing the Germans bases in French colonies something France could he easily refused during the war. This way they don’t annoy Britain.

May 1942 was just a random date it could be earlier or later doesn’t really.

Militiamen that stay behind and resistance fighters can slow the German advance for a short time using the secret weapon storages that Vichy France had.

Soldiers follow orders and ww2 is a perfect example of that, they will leave regardless of if their family is left behind.

French soldiers can be equipped with U.S weapons like how the free french were in our timeline.

This timeline can work without Britain re establishing diplomatic relations as long as the two don’t fight any major battles.

 

[Post]

The idea was for them to train an extra 100,000 men as auxiliary police in mainland France that could be used as troops (I should have explained that part better).

I don’t think the British would intervene if France invaded Equatorial Africa as they have enough on their plate already (maybe they send a small force as a good will gesture)

By limited collaboration I meant not allowing the Germans bases in French colonies something France could he easily refused during the war. This way they don’t annoy Britain.

May 1942 was just a random date it could be earlier or later doesn’t really.

Militiamen that stay behind and resistance fighters can slow the German advance for a short time using the secret weapon storages that Vichy France had.

Soldiers follow orders and ww2 is a perfect example of that, they will leave regardless of if their family is left behind.

French soldiers can be equipped with U.S weapons like how the free french were in our timeline.

This timeline can work without Britain re establishing diplomatic relations as long as the two don’t fight any major battles.

Training a lot of auxiliary police will raise eyebrows by the Germans.

I think the British will intervene, that's what they did OTL when they see a buildup.

AFIAK the Germans weren't allowed bases in French colonies OTL. Only in Syria they were, but then the British intervened. Tunisia was only occupied by the Germans when the Allies landed in NA. Before that there were no German bases there. So you're suggesting no change compared with OTL.

Militiamen and resistance probaby won't slow the Germans that much, and that's apart from the issues @Merrick raised with the evacuation: it's a long way from the French southcoast to NA, and shipping and fuel will be limited, and aircover non-existent. It's a recipe for failure.

I was meaning the buildup of forces until Vichy France joins the allies: how are they going to equip them? Apart from the forces in France, you also want to raise forces in the colonies. With what? And what they are going to get is 1940 equipment.

If they are going for this scheme, it makes so much more sense to fight on in the first place. After the armistice their hands are pretty much tied and there's too much risk involved.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I've turned up claims that there were low level 'deniable' contacts between the Brits and Petains government in 1942, and possibly 1941. Supposedly these revolved around what immediate assistance the Brits could offer if things went bad between Petains government & the Occupiers. What arms would be needed, where they could be delivered, ect... Not found collaboration for this, but given Dills attitude when he was CIGS its plausible this could have been started.

The US maintained diplomatic relations with Petains government to November 1942. The US Ambassador communicated off and on about Petains attitude about reentering the War and other possibilities. This is covered in histories of Vichy France like Jacksons 'The Dark Year', or Paxtons 'Vichy France'.

So, its not unreasonable there could be a dialogue.

 

[Catspoke]

Could this be coordinated with a Operation Roundup (we don't need a Torch in this TL).

I imagine the German garrisons were small outside the main naval bases on the southern Atlantic coast. Could an Allied division or two be landed on the Atlantic coast of France south of Bordeaux to link up with Vichy forces???

A high risk operation, but securing French North Africa, which would immediately relieve Malta, threaten Tripoli, and probably force the transfer of forces from the East, nipping the Germans 1942 attack in the bud are worth a lot. Also removes the need for an Allied attack on Madagasagar. Brings over Dakar and all the French naval units all over the world. Could also bring over the Vichy garrison in Indochina. The chaos off all this would be worth the risk of a few Allied divisions lost to a German counter attack.

 

[DougM]

It is extremely easy for the Navy and or the troops in Africa to join the Allies. The nave was offered that option by the RN before a large chunk was blown out of the water and the African troops just join up when Torch starts.

I would suggest a simple change or two where the French Navy sails to the US and sits out the war until Dec 7th and then the troops in ”Free France” Join when Torch kicks off.
But you are not getting any practical advantage from Vichy until Overload as trying to extract the troops is frankly more problems then it is worth and if the troops stay in France Germany will crush them relatively fast.
Your best bet is a France fights on kind of thing where France fights to the Bitter end and the Troops (as many as possible) evacuate to Africa and the Navy joins the RN.
But once France (Mainland France) stops fighting there is nothing they can do to trully help GB or the US until D-Day. They best they can do is NOT help Germany and not cooperate in the Geneside. Which would probably save thousands of not tens of thousands of lives.

But actually provding hundreds of thousands of troops from Mainland France? That is ASB if France falls like in original timeline. As Frans can’t provide them or train them or equip them and no one can transport them out of France.

So best you can get is
A). The French Navy Leaves to America until the US joins the war
B). The Troops in Africa Side with GB
C). Some troops evacu to Afr (but very few) durring the fall of France
D). Vichy France Organizes it’s troops in such a way as to remobilize once D-Day happens so they can imidiately join in the fighting again. I would suggest concentrating on training officer and NCOs to lead the reconstituted French Army.
E). Vichy France resists as much as it can helping supply Germany (sabotage, screwed up paperwork and otherwise acting like the Character Sgt Schultz from Hopfens Hero’s, to obstruct things as much as possible)
E). Vichy does not help with the Holocaust and actively tries to slow it as much as it can (without forcing Germany to simply take over)
F). The Resistance actually forms up units of men with some basic training and organization so that when D-Day happens these units can promptly be signed up and equipped to reconstitute the French army.
This would Greatly help the Wallies after. The invasion of France as it would at least stop the Southern Invasion from happening. And it would give a big assistance by providing support troops at a time when they were desperately needed.

This would if nothing else help with the navel situation in the critical 1941/42 window (or sooner if they join the RN outright)
It would make The Fighting in Africa go easier (assuming they Join GB on day one) or at least would make Torch a lot easier if they wait until then.
This may push foreword Torch as well.
And it would make the Invasion of France simpler and easier. And Probably eliminate the Southern invasion (that most forget about).
And it would save tens of thousands of lives overall between saving troops (French as well As GB/US) and a lot of holocaust victims as well.
And it would avoid the “Surrender Monkey “ trope. This probably decreases if not elimates DeGaule Which would probably be better for France in the long run. And would definitely be better for Western Europe as a whole and GB and West Germany durring the Cold War.

But like I said you are not get tens of thousands of additional troops out of Vichy France. If for no other reasons then you can’t transport them.

 

[Alterbob1234]

Could this be coordinated with a Operation Roundup (we don't need a Torch in this TL).

I imagine the German garrisons were small outside the main naval bases on the southern Atlantic coast. Could an Allied division or two be landed on the Atlantic coast of France south of Bordeaux to link up with Vichy forces???

A high risk operation, but securing French North Africa, which would immediately relieve Malta, threaten Tripoli, and probably force the transfer of forces from the East, nipping the Germans 1942 attack in the bud are worth a lot. Also removes the need for an Allied attack on Madagasagar. Brings over Dakar and all the French naval units all over the world. Could also bring over the Vichy garrison in Indochina. The chaos off all this would be worth the risk of a few Allied divisions lost to a German counter attack.

Yes it is a high risk operation but the number of German forces in France at this time was only 100,000 men and most of these weren’t on the Atlantic cost but in the north of France. Obviously the rail network could bring in troops quickly but this could be sabotaged by resistance fighters. The Allies could also land troops in southern France as it was under Vichy control. The French army in Africa could attack Libya from the Tunisia and together with the Allied forces in Egypt they could trap and destroy the Axis forces in Africa.

 

[Alterbob1234]

That's more plausible than I thought it was going to be, but it still suffers from two major problems:
Firstly, the plan starts with the evacuation of the now-Allied French forces from southern France, leaving the civilian population (presumably including their families) to the less than tender mercies of the Third Reich. The whole purpose of Vichy in the first place was to avoid a total German occupation of France.
Secondly, how is the "Dunkirk in the South" to be accomplished? Southern France in 1942 is a lot further from North Africa or even Corsica than Dunkirk is from the UK, the closest places the Allies can assemble transport are Gibraltar and Alexandria and the Axis have air superiority over the central Mediterranean. The OTL Battle of Crete show what happens to naval evacuations under uncontested air attack, and Crete to Alexandria is a shorter distance over much less hostile waters than Marseilles to Algiers.

About the only way I think this could work is if Italy never joins the war, there is no North African theatre and the Med remains open. Then after Stalingrad and the US entry to the war Mussolini reads the runes, decides that Hitler is going to lose and make overtures to the Allies. The Italian Army/Airforce is then in a position to help hold a beachhead in southern France while the Allies ship in reinforcements. Of course, you still have the problem of planning all this without some German agent or French Nazi sympathiser finding out and tipping off the Germans to send the panzers in directly. And you'd have to get rid of Petain (heart attack maybe?). The man wasn't a Nazi but he was by 1940 a committed Fascist and IMHO he would never have admitted he'd been wrong to compromise with the Germans.

The don’t have to evacuate to North Africa the Allies could land in France to support them. However I disagree with you. The Dunkirk evacuations were conducted under German air superiority and were successful. The French could also start evacuating troops before even declaring that they are rejoining the war giving them as much time as possible. The French navy would also re-enter the war meaning the number of ships would be plenty and the Allies would have naval superiority. You have to consider that the Allies landed over 100,000 men in North Africa (mainly Algeria) so they had enough ships to pull this off. Vichy France still had an airforce so wouldn’t totally be sitting ducks also allied aircraft could start to use french airfields in Algeria and could attack German forces in France using airfields in Britain. There were only 100,000 German troops in France at this time so wouldn’t be able to attack immediately. More could obviously be brought in but the french resistance could sabotage the railways to slow this down. Petain also wasn’t a committed fascist and if convinced could rejoin the war, like how many in France through he would and were disappointed after he didn’t resist the Germans during case Anton.

 

[Alterbob1234]

Training a lot of auxiliary police will raise eyebrows by the Germans.

I think the British will intervene, that's what they did OTL when they see a buildup.

AFIAK the Germans weren't allowed bases in French colonies OTL. Only in Syria they were, but then the British intervened. Tunisia was only occupied by the Germans when the Allies landed in NA. Before that there were no German bases there. So you're suggesting no change compared with OTL.

Militiamen and resistance probaby won't slow the Germans that much, and that's apart from the issues @Merrick raised with the evacuation: it's a long way from the French southcoast to NA, and shipping and fuel will be limited, and aircover non-existent. It's a recipe for failure.

I was meaning the buildup of forces until Vichy France joins the allies: how are they going to equip them? Apart from the forces in France, you also want to raise forces in the colonies. With what? And what they are going to get is 1940 equipment.

If they are going for this scheme, it makes so much more sense to fight on in the first place. After the armistice their hands are pretty much tied and there's too much risk involved.

Training a lot of auxiliary police will raise eyebrows by the Germans.

I think the British will intervene, that's what they did OTL when they see a buildup.

AFIAK the Germans weren't allowed bases in French colonies OTL. Only in Syria they were, but then the British intervened. Tunisia was only occupied by the Germans when the Allies landed in NA. Before that there were no German bases there. So you're suggesting no change compared with OTL.

Militiamen and resistance probaby won't slow the Germans that much, and that's apart from the issues @Merrick raised with the evacuation: it's a long way from the French southcoast to NA, and shipping and fuel will be limited, and aircover non-existent. It's a recipe for failure.

I was meaning the buildup of forces until Vichy France joins the allies: how are they going to equip them? Apart from the forces in France, you also want to raise forces in the colonies. With what? And what they are going to get is 1940 equipment.

If they are going for this scheme, it makes so much more sense to fight on in the first place. After the armistice their hands are pretty much tied and there's too much risk involved.

First of all the numbers I gave for the troops in the french colonies are what they actually had in our timeline as the Germans allowed them to keep troops in colonies to maintain order and defend them if they were attacked. They did secretly train 60,000 auxiliary police in North Africa so I don’t see why they couldn’t do this in mainland France. The Vichy French army was permitted to have 120,000 men, the gendarmerie 60,000 men and the anti aircraft personnel 10,000 men. I didn’t just make those numbers up.

I don’t think the British would intervene maybe a small force but noting major. I don’t think they cared that much about De Gualle to get into a difficult campaign in the middle of Africa against a neutral nation, which they could potentially push into the arms of Germany if they are not careful. British action against Vichy always had at least some reason behind it. Invading Syria because they let the Germans have bases there. Invading Madagascar because they could give it to the Japanese like they did with Indochina. An invasion of french Equatorial Africa doesn’t put british interests at risk only that they lose a minor ally it’s not like it’s the Germans invading. America also recognised Vichy as the legitimate government so could put pressure on Britain not to intervene and Britain needed U.S support quite a lot.

Yes in this timeline the French refuse the German request for airbases in Syria so don’t attack or without free France pushing Britain to invade the situation is resolved diplomatically. Tunisia was only occupied because the Vichy French government allowed the Germans to land troops there. If they had ordered the french troops in Tunisia to resist they could have easily repelled the Germans but instead they stood and watched as they flew in. In this timeline German probably doesn’t even attempt to land troops in Tunisia as they would be met with heavy resistance.

There was only 100,000 German soldiers in France at this time and to slow down the Germans bringing in more man the resistance could sabotage railways, bridges, roads etc. The Allies would have naval superiority and remember during operation torch they landed over 100,000 men in North Africa so definitely had the ships and fuel to pull a huge landing off, plus the french navy would be part of the Allies now giving them even more ships. Vichy France did have an airforce of around 1,000 aircraft so they wouldn’t be completely sitting ducks. Allied plans could also use airfields in French North Africa during the evacuation.

Vichy France had many hidden weapon storages which were discovered by the Germans after case Anton. Whatever industry Vichy France has could be used to make weapons, they could also by weapons from other nations. Like I said anyway once in North Africa they could be equipped with U.S weapons or a mixture like free France in our timeline.

Yes it would be better if they never surrendered and continued the fight from North Africa but they thought that the war was over and Germany had won so doing so would just make the terms harsher. However overtime many in Vichy France realised Germany may not win as early as November 1940 when they lost the Battle of Britain. This scenario is basically then realising Germany has a high chance of losing and re-joining the war. Also getting rid of Free France before this.

 

[Garrison]

If Vichy so much as gives a hint they might do this, and some people in the regime were pro Nazi, then Case Anton happens in May.

 

[Merrick]

However I disagree with you. The Dunkirk evacuations were conducted under German air superiority and were successful. The French could also start evacuating troops before even declaring that they are rejoining the war giving them as much time as possible. The French navy would also re-enter the war meaning the number of ships would be plenty and the Allies would have naval superiority.

The RAF were heavily contesting the airspace over Dunkirk. In southern France, 1942, the nearest Allied fighters are in Malta and the Western Mediterranean is an Axis lake. The fate of the OTL 1942 Malta convoys - two costly failures and one very expensive partial success - suggests what would have happened to an evacuation convoy.

I think you're underestimating just how limited the French Armistice Army was (the Germans kept it deprived of armour and transport precisely so it couldn't effectively resist a German takeover) and how little freedom of action the Vichy government had. If they start shipping troops overseas without German permission they will be called in to explain themselves immediately, and if they don't have a good answer the Panzers roll. Likewise it's unlikely that French authorities in Syria, Tunisia or anywhere else would be able to refuse German "requests" without serious consequences back home.

True, the Allies did move large numbers of troops to North Africa, but Operation Torch took months of planning and the participation of a large fleet - it's not something they can do on the fly once Vichy springs a surprise. And it would have to be a surprise, because once the plan is spread among more than a handful of insiders, it will leak and then it's a matter of hours rather than days before the Germans respond.

 

[Alterbob1234]

The RAF were heavily contesting the airspace over Dunkirk. In southern France, 1942, the nearest Allied fighters are in Malta and the Western Mediterranean is an Axis lake. The fate of the OTL 1942 Malta convoys - two costly failures and one very expensive partial success - suggests what would have happened to an evacuation convoy.

I think you're underestimating just how limited the French Armistice Army was (the Germans kept it deprived of armour and transport precisely so it couldn't effectively resist a German takeover) and how little freedom of action the Vichy government had. If they start shipping troops overseas without German permission they will be called in to explain themselves immediately, and if they don't have a good answer the Panzers roll. Likewise it's unlikely that French authorities in Syria, Tunisia or anywhere else would be able to refuse German "requests" without serious consequences back home.

True, the Allies did move large numbers of troops to North Africa, but Operation Torch took months of planning and the participation of a large fleet - it's not something they can do on the fly once Vichy springs a surprise. And it would have to be a surprise, because once the plan is spread among more than a handful of insiders, it will leak and then it's a matter of hours rather than days

The RAF were heavily contesting the airspace over Dunkirk. In southern France, 1942, the nearest Allied fighters are in Malta and the Western Mediterranean is an Axis lake. The fate of the OTL 1942 Malta convoys - two costly failures and one very expensive partial success - suggests what would have happened to an evacuation convoy.

I think you're underestimating just how limited the French Armistice Army was (the Germans kept it deprived of armour and transport precisely so it couldn't effectively resist a German takeover) and how little freedom of action the Vichy government had. If they start shipping troops overseas without German permission they will be called in to explain themselves immediately, and if they don't have a good answer the Panzers roll. Likewise it's unlikely that French authorities in Syria, Tunisia or anywhere else would be able to refuse German "requests" without serious consequences back home.

True, the Allies did move large numbers of troops to North Africa, but Operation Torch took months of planning and the participation of a large fleet - it's not something they can do on the fly once Vichy springs a surprise. And it would have to be a surprise, because once the plan is spread among more than a handful of insiders, it will leak and then it's a matter of hours rather than days before the Germans respond.

Well if they have plenty of time to plan and it remains a secret at the highest level then they could perhaps be partially successful. Well obviously the Germans would catch on eventually to what is going on but not making a huge public announcement would obviously buy time. The french could buy even more time by telling the Germans their colonies are revolting or something like that and maybe fake some local uprising. I mean the french did have around 1,000 aircraft which could also be used. The axis would also be focused on events in Egypt and Russia. Also yes the french could have quite easily refused letting German planes on Syrian soil and perhaps counter balanced it by setting up a labour corps for Germany a lot sooner (Germany really wanted french labour). Even if the French did still allow German planes in Syria without the Free French pushing for an invasion of the territory a diplomatic solution could be reached between Britain and France. The whole Syria thing was if France and Britain don’t fight any major battles then Vichy is more likely to re-enter the war.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Riffing off the OP into a different melody...

Let assume Petain sees the events of July 1940 to May 1941 a bit differently. OTL he had been expecting the Germans to start negotiations of a peace treaty in the autumn of 1940 and a permanent treaty to be in place by the spring of 1941. Ending occupation. Second, he had expected the Germans to honor the Armistice & allow France to defend its colonies. Instead Hitler gave the Japanese permission to occupy French Indochina & the French were told to stand down & allow it to happen.

Lets suppose these two events, plus the ongoing looting of France, ect... disillusion Petain. He responds to US feelers & a agreement is reached. Petain secretly allows a shadow government to be formed in the colonies. At the appropriate moment in the summer of 1941 they separate from Petains Vichy government, declare neutrally, and invite the US to send in soldiers to assist them in remaining neutral. The model here is the OTL US occupation of 'neutral Iceland' in July 1941. A few token regiments from Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet are landed in Morocco, Algiers, Bizerte and follow up forces prepared. Arms assistance to this new French government is planned. Plus the US Atlantic fleet is now maintaining a detachment at Mer el Kibir.

 

[DougM]

You still can’t get around the reality that France is on the doorstep of Germany and is under there bootheel. So the minute they try anything then mainland France gets chopped off at the knees.

As for what Petain believed. That is another story. Either he was an idiot, he was senile or he was a liar. Take your pick. Only a moron would believe a word Germany/Hitler said. He/they had broken every agreement they had ever made. It takes a complete fool to think this time would be different. So. Petain was either and idiot to believe Germany or so senile that he didn’t know what he was doing or he knew full well what he was doing but was more then willing to participate in order to better his own position and thus you can’t believe a word he says.
Personally I fall into the camp of his being a liar. I think he was fully aware of the situation and that Germany could not be trusted but I think Petain believed that France and England were doomed and Germany was inevitably going to win so he was more then willing to work with them and it was only once Germany got in trouble that he fell back on the i was tricked bit. That being said I DO think he was trying to help the people and troops of France (to a degree) because he believed that ultimately they were going to be under Germany so he may as well cooperate and try to minimize the damage. But I do think he was also looking out for himself. I can’t proof that but…

 

[Catspoke]

Riffing off the OP into a different melody...

Let assume Petain sees the events of July 1940 to May 1941 a bit differently. OTL he had been expecting the Germans to start negotiations of a peace treaty in the autumn of 1940 and a permanent treaty to be in place by the spring of 1941. Ending occupation. Second, he had expected the Germans to honor the Armistice & allow France to defend its colonies. Instead Hitler gave the Japanese permission to occupy French Indochina & the French were told to stand down & allow it to happen.

Lets suppose these two events, plus the ongoing looting of France, ect... disillusion Petain. He responds to US feelers & a agreement is reached. Petain secretly allows a shadow government to be formed in the colonies. At the appropriate moment in the summer of 1941 they separate from Petains Vichy government, declare neutrally, and invite the US to send in soldiers to assist them in remaining neutral. The model here is the OTL US occupation of 'neutral Iceland' in July 1941. A few token regiments from Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet are landed in Morocco, Algiers, Bizerte and follow up forces prepared. Arms assistance to this new French government is planned. Plus the US Atlantic fleet is now maintaining a detachment at Mer el Kibir.

Interesting. I like the timing, the Germans are engaged in Barbarossa, any minor USA forces would stiffen French resistance. Its great for clearing Africa early. Great for the Allies. (perhaps though maybe this is a blessing in disguise for the Germans/Italians to not suffer Tunisia May 1943 OTL)

However, The Germans will occupy France though a year plus early, and mistreatment of the population will increase rapidly earlier. If the Germans get wind of this plan early, they will occupy French North Africa first. So some risk for the French it blows up on them. At the time this is being formulated, the Germans haven't launched Barbarossa or are winning so its a brave move for the French, their population could be suffering under a heavy and total occupation for a long time.

 

[Catspoke]

You still can’t get around the reality that France is on the doorstep of Germany and is under there bootheel. So the minute they try anything then mainland France gets chopped off at the knees.

As for what Petain believed. That is another story. Either he was an idiot, he was senile or he was a liar. Take your pick. Only a moron would believe a word Germany/Hitler said. He/they had broken every agreement they had ever made. It takes a complete fool to think this time would be different. So. Petain was either and idiot to believe Germany or so senile that he didn’t know what he was doing or he knew full well what he was doing but was more then willing to participate in order to better his own position and thus you can’t believe a word he says.
Personally I fall into the camp of his being a liar. I think he was fully aware of the situation and that Germany could not be trusted but I think Petain believed that France and England were doomed and Germany was inevitably going to win so he was more then willing to work with them and it was only once Germany got in trouble that he fell back on the i was tricked bit. That being said I DO think he was trying to help the people and troops of France (to a degree) because he believed that ultimately they were going to be under Germany so he may as well cooperate and try to minimize the damage. But I do think he was also looking out for himself. I can’t proof that but…

It was the best option at the time.

Certainly in June 1940, you could be looking at a brutal 10 year occupation of France by Germany if France continued to resist and didn't cooperate. Its a reasonable fear.

If France resisted, was occupied, France burned under a Poland like occupation (millions dead), the colonies resisted, Italy thrown out of Africa, French IndoChina still French, Germany may not be in a position to do Barbarossa, USA-Japan may still be at peace, and Britain/France launched in a forever unwinnable war against Germany.

Having two governments around one pro German, one pro British was really a smart thing by the French OTL, the pro German one mitigates the current German population, and which ever one is winning ultimately you go with.

Carl's interesting variation of the OP above is probably too early, the USA has to be fully in, before its obvious the ultimate Allied victory.

 

[Catspoke]

How did the OP get banned for this, I never understand the banning.