What if US won the War of 1812?

And not everyone in the UK had interest

"I think you have no right, from the state of war, to demand any concession of territory from America... You have not been able to carry it into the enemy's territory, notwithstanding your military success, and now undoubted military superiority, and have not even cleared your own territory on the point of attack. You cannot on any principle of equality in negotiation claim a cession of territory except in exchange for other advantages which you have in your power... Then if this reasoning be true, why stipulate for the uti possidetis? You can get no territory: indeed, the state of your military operations, however creditable, does not entitle you to demand any"

Duke of Wellington, November 1814

Now add on the US holding a good chunk of British North America

Enough of those in Power recalled how expensive the ARW was to fight, and there was already a problem with desertion in the British Army, over 70,000 cases during the Napoleonic Wars, and now new orders to fight in America after Spain and France would not be looked well on.

Wellington's whole letter though, is hardly saying the British have no right to demand territory. He's merely pointing out that uti possidetis is a pointless claim when the British are not properly standing on the territory they seek to claim directly. Indeed, most of his foibles come from the British having direct control of the Great Lakes. In the same letter he states "If you had territory, as I hope you will soon have New Orleans, I should prefer to insist upon the cessation of that province as a separate article than upon the uti possidetis as a principle of negotiation"

There's been a lot of misunderstanding of exactly what Wellington was saying in that letter I think. Had the British been entirely successful in their 1814 campaigns, rather than partially, and been standing in more than the putative state of Maine, Wellington is clearly saying that demanding the cessation of territory is a good idea. However, insisting on the mentioned uti possidetus or "as you hold it" as Liverpool was insisting, seemed unwise to him.
 
Wellington is clearly saying that demanding the cessation of territory is a good idea. However, insisting on the mentioned uti possidetus or "as you hold it" as Liverpool was insisting, seemed unwise to him.

It is a great idea, but you have to have that territory to really be able to realistically demand it in a Treaty, and Britain wasn't holding a lot of it OTL

In 1814, both sides were getting tired of the War. Now this ATL, Britain is in far worse shape by time Nappy is on Elbe, and this Fuzzy TL seems to point that the British Raids on Washington, Maine and Baltimore turn out no better than OTL, the British are not sitting on any US territory to trade, while the US has a good chunk of BNA.

About as many ships and men were used in the US campaign as could be expected, given how unsettled France was, even with the Corsican Ogre in Exile.

So in August and September, it's obvious to all in Ghent that Britain has a weak hand to deal with. Zero chance of getting that Indian Buffer State implemented, the British goal would be the return as much of Lower Canada as possible that had most of the population vs Upper Canada, while the US would probably try for the end of impressing merchant seamen as well as controlling Southern Ontario, I don't see much demands of territory besides that, though possible area around Maine.

So that Treaty gets signed in October, not quite OTL Status Quo.

So it looks like this for the War of 1812
US won a little
UK lost a little
Natives, as OTL, lose.

The main difference is that relations for the rest of the 19th Century will be a lot worse, even to the point of a militarized border
 
It is a great idea, but you have to have that territory to really be able to realistically demand it in a Treaty, and Britain wasn't holding a lot of it OTL

OTL (and I may be understating the situation) the British in 1814 had burned Washington, controlled the Chesapeake entirely, had a large army on the New York border, occupied what would OTL become Maine entirely, occupied the Mississippi as far south as what is modern day Davenport Iowa and effectively controlled the coastal plains of Louisiana and Alabama. This was with the main campaigns of 1814 not capturing further territory mind.

The US meanwhile occupied a small corner of the Niagara Peninsula, and Amhertsburg, while having suffered a decisive defeat at the Battle of Lundy's Lane and were unable to mount a follow up offensive.

Even if you want to count New Orleans, there was not a rosy strategic picture for the US entering into 1815 or even at Ghent in particular. They got pretty lucky OTL.

In 1814, both sides were getting tired of the War. Now this ATL, Britain is in far worse shape by time Nappy is on Elbe, and this Fuzzy TL seems to point that the British Raids on Washington, Maine and Baltimore turn out no better than OTL, the British are not sitting on any US territory to trade, while the US has a good chunk of BNA.

What ATL is this?
 
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