What if Trotsky stayed in the US instead of trying to go back to russia?

When Trotsky arrived in france, the french deported him to spain, the spanish also didn't want him so they deported him to the US, he stayed in the US for three months. What if Trotsky stayed in the US?
 
He would have a better chance of survival than in Mexico. There would be more diplomatic repercussions assassinating him in the US than Mexico.
 
How would Trotsky be treated amidst the McCarthy era?

Very good question! Assuming he lived until
1950, my guess would be he'd have been deported(to where I don't know. Maybe the
labour government in England would have
been willing to take him in- Trotsky was after
all anti-Stalin).But I very much doubt the US
would, in the first place, have allowed him to
remain in it that long. Remember, during WWII Stalin(& Russia)were our allies. Stalin
would have let FDR know, in no uncertain
terms, that he didn't like the US harboring
LT. FDR would of course have been eager to
placate Uncle Joe & so LT would have been
expelled. What would then have happened
I'm not going to even try & guess.
 
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A revolution without Trotsky is going to have major butterflies. It may very well fail, and at the very least will result in a very different Red Army.

How would Trotsky be treated amidst the McCarthy era?
Assumes there'd even be a McCarthy era. Considering the POD likely has serious knock on effects on what happens in the revolution, the assumption is unwarrented.
 
Since the OP didn't point this out, Trotsky arrived in the US in December 1916, on Christmas, and left on March 27, 1917.

Big question for me is why he stays.
 
A revolution without Trotsky is going to have major butterflies. It may very well fail, and at the very least will result in a very different Red Army.


Assumes there'd even be a McCarthy era. Considering the POD likely has serious knock on effects on what happens in the revolution, the assumption is unwarrented.
Oh, thought he went to the US to flee Stalin. Nvm then
 

SsgtC

Banned
If he stayed in the United States (and for whatever reason was allowed to stay) could he have had any political influence in the US? Perhaps shifting American politics to the left a bit?
 
Very good question! Assuming he lived until
1950, my guess would be he'd have been deported(to where I don't know. Maybe the
labour government in England would have
been willing to take him in- Trotsky was after
all anti-Stalin).But I very much doubt the US
would, in the first place, have allowed him to
remain in it that long. Remember, during WWII Stalin(& Russia)were our allies. Stalin
would have let FDR know, in no uncertain
terms, that he didn't like the US harboring
LT. FDR would of course have been eager to
placate Uncle Joe & so LT would have been
expelled. What would then have happened
I'm not going to even try & guess.


He'd try Panama next.
 
Since the OP didn't point this out, Trotsky arrived in the US in December 1916, on Christmas, and left on March 27, 1917.

Big question for me is why he stays.
He was in New York sampling delis... Maybe he finds a really good one? Or ends up tripping and breaking his leg or something else that requires an extended hospital stay perhaps
 
Why would he stay? He lived his life for the coming revolution--now it arrives (at least its first stage) and he is supposed to sit it out far away? A Trotsky who would give up trying to influence the course of the Russian Revolution would be so different from the Trotsky of OTL that it is almost meaningless to speculate on his future.

All his exiles from Russia were involuntary. The only way to get him not to return is to keep him out. (Which the British tried to do for awhile, detaining him in Halifax. But the Russian Provisional Government, bowing to pressure from the Soviet, insisted that all political emigres, regardless of their position on the war, must be allowed to return to Russia.)
 
Oh, thought he went to the US to flee Stalin. Nvm then
Same here which is why I mentioned Mexico.

:)

No worries.

He was in New York sampling delis... Maybe he finds a really good one? Or ends up tripping and breaking his leg or something else that requires an extended hospital stay perhaps

Once the revolution in Russia breaks out, you'll need something much stronger, a far better reason to keep him away.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Why would he stay? He lived his life for the coming revolution--now it arrives (at least its first stage) and he is supposed to sit it out far away? A Trotsky who would give up trying to influence the course of the Russian Revolution would be so different from the Trotsky of OTL that it is almost meaningless to speculate on his future.
What if he was arrested in the US for trying to build a revolution here? Not sure if he would or not, just spitballing.
 
The only way that Trotsky would even consider staying is if there was no revolution. Once the US enters WWI Trotsky's anti-war activism would no doubt get him convicted of violating the Espionage Act (which carried a maximum sentence of 2 years in prison). He also falls under the Immigration Act of 1918's definition of an anarchist, which would allow the US government to deport him. However, if there's no Russian Revolution then there probably wouldn't be a Red Scare, meaning that the authorities might have no interest in deporting Trotsky. At any rate, it's hard to talk about Trotsky's path in life without the Russian Revolution. He would certainly keep advocating for revolution, both in Russia and worldwide, but given the butterflies that no Russian Revolution creates we can't really say how influential he would be.
 
What if he was arrested in the US for trying to build a revolution here? Not sure if he would or not, just spitballing.

The Red Scare in the US didn't begin until after the US entered the war. Trotsky had left the country by then. During the months Trotsky was in New York it was perfectly legal to denounce the World War as imperialist.
 
He would have a better chance of survival than in Mexico. There would be more diplomatic repercussions assassinating him in the US than Mexico.
After leaving the Soviet Union Trotsky did not later return to Russia. So i am assuming that instead of traveling to Russia to be part of the Russian revolution he is supposed tostay in USA. What happens then? What happens if Trotsky never was part of the Russian revolution?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/stalin-banishes-trotsky
 
After leaving the Soviet Union Trotsky did not later return to Russia. So i am assuming that instead of traveling to Russia to be part of the Russian revolution he is supposed tostay in USA. What happens then? What happens if Trotsky never was part of the Russian revolution?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/stalin-banishes-trotsky

It said tried, I thought he might have tried to get back to the USSR via Turkey or Iran or some other country and stayed in Mexico temporarily until he arranged things.
 
By the way, Trotsky did attempt to get into the US in the late 1930's. For one thing, he had not lost his interest in America; for another, he thought he would be safer in the US than in Mexico. (President Cardenas was staunch in resisting Stalinist pressure to expel Trotsky, but Cardenas' term would end in 1940, and he was not eligible for re-election. And by 1938 Trotsky was already convinced that Stalin's agents were staking out the Trotsky residence near Mexico City in preparation for an assassination.) All his attempts were in vain. In an interview in December 1938 he stated his frustration, noting that twenty-two years earlier he had gone to New York "without any passport, without any visa, without any absurd and humiliating formalities! Your immigration authorities were interested that I did not have trachoma but were absolutely unconcerned about my ideas. Yet twenty-two years ago, my ideas, I venture to assure you, were as bad as now..." https://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1938/12/nynews.htm

It is in this context, incidentally, that Trotsky's much-criticized willingness to testify to the Dies ("Un-American Activities") Committee (presumably about Stalinist activities in Mexico) must be considered. The Committee's request for him to testify meant that at last he had a chance to get into the US--originally he might just have a six-month visa, but even that would buy him time, and perhaps it could be extended...
 
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