If the Southern Victory Series were real, let's say all the Presidents from Lincoln to Dewey were Presidents, what's after 1945? I highly doubt Russian Alaska would remain Russian during the Second Great War, so let's go ahead and have them conquered by the Union, I also think that Texas would not declare independence nearing the end, and I really believe that the borders of America and Mexico would be the Pre-1881 border, but other than that, what is the world would be like beyond 1945? Who would Presidents in the 2020s? Would the Unionbmove back to Washington, D.C. from Philadelphia?
What if TL-191 was actually real? What's beyond 1945?
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In my opinion, that's actually a good question, because it seemed that Harry Turtledove left enough unanswered questions after In at the Death, that at least a few more books could have been written.
Whatever happened after the end of the war, there would most likely be a lot of chaos and dislocation for the next two years or so. Taking a look at the characters in the last book in the series, who would be shrewd enough to spot new opportunities in such an environment? Jerry Dover seems like a good candidate for achieving wealth in the years following the war. Or the character Cincinatus Driver. Perhaps he would start a company which rents moving trucks to people who are moving from Ohio and Pennsylvania to Utah. Maybe thirty years later it will be possible to see his biracial grandson appearing in television commercials, telling people why his company's rentals service is so much better than the competition.
On the political front, some people describe a scenario in which the United States becomes a huge empire spanning from the arctic circle to San Diego.
However, In my scenario the US decides to cough up Canada in order to have enough troops to finally subdue the defeated Confederacy. Also, in my scenario Texas rejoins the US due to its collapsing dollar, and constant fighting Mexico along its border, except New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are US states, not Alaska.
I think that there is another possible scenario worth exploring. What if the US Socialist Party becomes mad, and a character similar Jake Featherston emerges?
Whatever happened after the end of the war, there would most likely be a lot of chaos and dislocation for the next two years or so. Taking a look at the characters in the last book in the series, who would be shrewd enough to spot new opportunities in such an environment? Jerry Dover seems like a good candidate for achieving wealth in the years following the war. Or the character Cincinatus Driver. Perhaps he would start a company which rents moving trucks to people who are moving from Ohio and Pennsylvania to Utah. Maybe thirty years later it will be possible to see his biracial grandson appearing in television commercials, telling people why his company's rentals service is so much better than the competition.
On the political front, some people describe a scenario in which the United States becomes a huge empire spanning from the arctic circle to San Diego.
However, In my scenario the US decides to cough up Canada in order to have enough troops to finally subdue the defeated Confederacy. Also, in my scenario Texas rejoins the US due to its collapsing dollar, and constant fighting Mexico along its border, except New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are US states, not Alaska.
I think that there is another possible scenario worth exploring. What if the US Socialist Party becomes mad, and a character similar Jake Featherston emerges?
That's a great thought, I was wondering what and how does the American Society move on from the Second Great War and the Reintegrated Texas and the Confederacy, but I'm not sure about the Socialist Party becoming mad, though, I'd say the Socialist Party in the Southern Victory would be the allegory for the Democrats OTL, except more Left-wing with Labor Unions being the "wings" of the Party.
I don't know, I think that the Socialist Party in the 191 universe is a bit more radical than the Democrats in our own timeline. In one of the early books there is a scene in which Flora Hamburger is giving a radical speech about something or rather, and from what I remember, it seemed like her words were bordering on inciting a riot. I agree, the idea of Flor Hamburger suddenly turning into Stalin and over throwing the government is a bit far fetched, but this is supposed to be a universe different from ours, so who knows?
That is a fair point, yes, they're abit radical, but I'd say it's just a party that replaces the GOP, while the Democrats are the Centre to Right-Wing Position.
America will be far more militarized and very patriotic about the country more than even OTL is because of Rememberacist effect on US culture.
Canada will probably be assimilated to the United States as the population will be significantly lower than US and Canadian identity will reduce by the US assimilating efforts to the youths, they will probably be no real Canadian movement in 2022.
Utah on the other hand will probably be filled by either refugee's of SGW or Post-war immigrants that repopulate the whole of Utah and probably reshape Utah, it's just another state that isn't Mormon theme. Sandwich island will be Mormon majority state as they will be populated compared to the Natives hawaiian in the islands, probably still in Military occupation as in Utah before but more control.
South probably be the main issue for the US as they will be so popular and will have more cultural integrity than Utah and Canada combine, they literally has 83 years as Independent country and fought three wars to keep it that way.
They will be several terrorist attacks and movement to be independent again, this obviously it stomped by the US but likely be a complete cycle of conflict similar to Northern Ireland but worst.
Honestly with a repeated attack by Southern terrorists as well as going movement to be independent or at least be autonomy and sending Young American man the South to get killed over and over again, the South will likely be independent because of the already different culture develop over 80 years and the US doesn't want any resource drained by the South.
Keep in mind, this New South will likely just be a puppet similar to Belarus as they will control by US policies and remain under Washington's eyes plus likely have a smaller military or none at all.
If you think that the US wouldn't allow the South to be independent and I do think they would be certainly some pushback in this idea, the US will be benefit by controlling a puppet state on the hand and as well don't drain their budget on increasing pressure on the south and no American lost it at the result.
Thank you for my TED talk signing out
Canada will probably be assimilated to the United States as the population will be significantly lower than US and Canadian identity will reduce by the US assimilating efforts to the youths, they will probably be no real Canadian movement in 2022.
Utah on the other hand will probably be filled by either refugee's of SGW or Post-war immigrants that repopulate the whole of Utah and probably reshape Utah, it's just another state that isn't Mormon theme. Sandwich island will be Mormon majority state as they will be populated compared to the Natives hawaiian in the islands, probably still in Military occupation as in Utah before but more control.
South probably be the main issue for the US as they will be so popular and will have more cultural integrity than Utah and Canada combine, they literally has 83 years as Independent country and fought three wars to keep it that way.
They will be several terrorist attacks and movement to be independent again, this obviously it stomped by the US but likely be a complete cycle of conflict similar to Northern Ireland but worst.
Honestly with a repeated attack by Southern terrorists as well as going movement to be independent or at least be autonomy and sending Young American man the South to get killed over and over again, the South will likely be independent because of the already different culture develop over 80 years and the US doesn't want any resource drained by the South.
Keep in mind, this New South will likely just be a puppet similar to Belarus as they will control by US policies and remain under Washington's eyes plus likely have a smaller military or none at all.
If you think that the US wouldn't allow the South to be independent and I do think they would be certainly some pushback in this idea, the US will be benefit by controlling a puppet state on the hand and as well don't drain their budget on increasing pressure on the south and no American lost it at the result.
Thank you for my TED talk signing out
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I always wondered why Canada wasn't the Puppet? they pulled it with Quebec,t he rest of anglo Canada wouldn't have been that hard and i think a puppet confederacy could be possible, with USA annexing some regions and some states via 'plesbicites'
People use both URSS/russia and at times part of Germany as russia analogue, after watching a documentary, we could have another analogue to post war USA...Sweden, especially if the socialist got a a second last hurrah government too
The different is that Canada have a lower population than the US and Quebec was an ally to the US during the Great war so they're granted Independence for gratitude.
Canadians in general are very similar to the US cousins, so likely they will probably more likely to assimilate to US culture than with Southern neighbors.
And plus the US citizen settled into Canada a lot better than the South ever be
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After a decade or two I can honestly see the US reducing the area of occupation to the original seven Confederate states (minus an independent Texas and a free, and possibly black, Republic of Louisiana which I headcanon thanks to what happened to that state as a whole under Featherston) plus Virginia since I can imagine them eventually deciding not to use excess resources they don't have to sit on Utah, Canada, and all the former CSA. It happens to line up with those six states being the last on certain issues of OTL such as readmittance into the Union, withdrawal of troops after Reconstruction, or abolishing convict leasing. It also lines up with the prospect that the Population Reduction was disproportionately worse there than elsewhere in the CSA sans maybe Texas due to Camp Determination and Camp Humble being there. By extension I have a headcanon that suggests that things were less severe in Kentucky and Tennessee due to each of them having their own civil war more or less, North Carolina being apathetic about the Confederacy in the first place and having a somewhat better record of civil rights IOTL compared to other southern states, and many blacks being able to escape to the isolation of the pro-Union Ozark Mountains and into Missouri.
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The Black population were either go to the Northern states like New York and Jersey or moved into Liberia to escape the horrors of aftermath the South genocide.
There basically will be no black people in the South after the Massive genocide attempted by Jake Featherston
There basically will be no black people in the South after the Massive genocide attempted by Jake Featherston
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The USA will pursue a postwar policy of reunion with the former CSA. The USA will also gradually bring the military occupation of former Canada to a close, in favor of granting statehood to the former Canadian provinces and pursuing a policy of political reconciliation north of the former border.
Texas may remain independent for some time, but I think that Turtledove has said that Texas would eventually be brought back into the Union. In the continuation of TL-191 that I wrote, Texas remains independent because of a large influx of immigrants from the former CSA, some three million people in all, who refuse to live under US rule.
The USA will do what it can to help the African-American survivors of the genocide carried out by the Featherston regime and the Freedom Party. I suspect that the vast majority of survivors will want to leave the former CSA.
The USA will also spend the first generation after the end of the Second Great War consolidating control over North America. I could see the Dewey administration moving to take Alaska from the Russian Empire, in order to avoid the possibility of Alaska being taken by the Japanese Empire.
In the continuation that I wrote of TL-191, I imagined that the USA forming a military alliance with the other nations of North America, along with certain other countries overseas. This would lead to the USA investing in the military and transportation infrastructure of its allies, in order to facilitate a rapid US military presence during a future crisis. I also imagined that the USA would gain full control over the former British and French colonies in the Caribbean.
I do not think that the post-SGW will have an equivalent of the USA-USSR Cold War from OTL. The international situation will be similar to earlier eras of great power competition. Of course, this would be complicated further by the proliferation of superbombs and the development of deadlier weapons.
Unless I’m mistaken, I think that it’s hinted at the very end of the series that the USA intends to work with the German Empire in an effort to halt the proliferation of superbombs. I could imagine the USA, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the German Empire cooperating during the first generation after the end of the SGW to prevent other nations from acquiring superbombs, although Austro-Hungarian and German efforts would primarily be directed against the Russian Empire, while US efforts would primarily be directed against the Japanese Empire. I don’t know how successful these postwar anti-proliferation efforts by the Austro-Hungarian Empire, German Empire, and USA would be.
The post-SGW world of TL-191 would be very different from the post-WWII world in our world. I think that it would be more economically austere and militarized than IOTL. The effects of multiple cities being destroyed by superbombs around the world at the end of the SGW will also be severe, and will be reflected in the postwar economy and postwar culture.
Ultimately, the USA in TTL would have little resemblance to the USA in our world, in terms of its domestic politics, military policies, or wider culture.
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This is what I previously argued about why the USA would pursue a postwar policy of reunion with the former CSA, slightly edited:
I would argue that from the perspective of the US political and military leaders in 1944, and likely during the first generation after the end of the SGW, there are several overarching factors that would favor a policy of reunion, versus allowing for any region of the former CSA, barring Texas, independence.
-The USA under Al Smith was beyond accommodating to the Featherston regime, to the point of ceding Houston and Kentucky back to the CSA. As another AH.com user remarked in another thread, this is equivalent to France in OTL 1938 ceding Alsace-Lorraine to the Third Reich. The end result of this policy of appeasement, of course, was Featherston launching Operation Blackbeard and the CSA managing to split the US in half. The lesson likely learned by US policymakers after the war is that any territorial concessions to an enemy of the US will invite an attack. The USA will not allow for the possibility of a hostile foreign power on its southern border again.
-The Destruction. The crimes of Featherston and the Freedom Party add a moral dimension to ending the independence of the CSA. The US will also not tolerate the possibility of such a monstrous regime existing on its southern border again.
-The USA arguably since the War of Secession, and definitely since 1881-1882, has faced the specter of encirclement in North America by hostile foreign powers. While this was lessened after the FGW with the defeat and occupation of Canada, this sense of an existential threat to the territorial integrity and the independence of the USA was likely brought back into a forefront of US popular conscience by Operation Blackbeard, the Second Canadian Uprising, and yet another Mormon revolt. With the final defeat of the Canadian and Mormon rebels and the fall of the CSA, the USA, for the first time in many decades, is free of the possibility of encirclement by hostile powers. The USA will not tolerate the presence on its southern border of a potentially hostile foreign power that could ally itself with an overseas enemy of the USA.
-Since the War of Secession, the USA in TTL has lived with the shame of military defeat and the failure to preserve the Union. With the defeat of the CSA, that national shame has been brought to and end, and the USA can finally reunite, as should have occurred in the 1860s. I do not think that the USA will willingly abandon the project of reunion after the end of the SGW, especially after four North American Wars, each worse than the last.
For these reasons, and likely others, I think that the USA will proceed with a postwar policy of reunion. These are also the reasons why I think that the USA in TL-191 is highly unlikely to allow for the establishment of multiple independent states on the territory of the former CSA in lieu of annexation and reunion. I cannot imagine the post-SGW USA willingly going back to a prewar situation of facing encirclement in North America from enemies.
Texas may remain independent for some time, but I think that Turtledove has said that Texas would eventually be brought back into the Union. In the continuation of TL-191 that I wrote, Texas remains independent because of a large influx of immigrants from the former CSA, some three million people in all, who refuse to live under US rule.
The USA will do what it can to help the African-American survivors of the genocide carried out by the Featherston regime and the Freedom Party. I suspect that the vast majority of survivors will want to leave the former CSA.
The USA will also spend the first generation after the end of the Second Great War consolidating control over North America. I could see the Dewey administration moving to take Alaska from the Russian Empire, in order to avoid the possibility of Alaska being taken by the Japanese Empire.
In the continuation that I wrote of TL-191, I imagined that the USA forming a military alliance with the other nations of North America, along with certain other countries overseas. This would lead to the USA investing in the military and transportation infrastructure of its allies, in order to facilitate a rapid US military presence during a future crisis. I also imagined that the USA would gain full control over the former British and French colonies in the Caribbean.
I do not think that the post-SGW will have an equivalent of the USA-USSR Cold War from OTL. The international situation will be similar to earlier eras of great power competition. Of course, this would be complicated further by the proliferation of superbombs and the development of deadlier weapons.
Unless I’m mistaken, I think that it’s hinted at the very end of the series that the USA intends to work with the German Empire in an effort to halt the proliferation of superbombs. I could imagine the USA, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the German Empire cooperating during the first generation after the end of the SGW to prevent other nations from acquiring superbombs, although Austro-Hungarian and German efforts would primarily be directed against the Russian Empire, while US efforts would primarily be directed against the Japanese Empire. I don’t know how successful these postwar anti-proliferation efforts by the Austro-Hungarian Empire, German Empire, and USA would be.
The post-SGW world of TL-191 would be very different from the post-WWII world in our world. I think that it would be more economically austere and militarized than IOTL. The effects of multiple cities being destroyed by superbombs around the world at the end of the SGW will also be severe, and will be reflected in the postwar economy and postwar culture.
Ultimately, the USA in TTL would have little resemblance to the USA in our world, in terms of its domestic politics, military policies, or wider culture.
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This is what I previously argued about why the USA would pursue a postwar policy of reunion with the former CSA, slightly edited:
I would argue that from the perspective of the US political and military leaders in 1944, and likely during the first generation after the end of the SGW, there are several overarching factors that would favor a policy of reunion, versus allowing for any region of the former CSA, barring Texas, independence.
-The USA under Al Smith was beyond accommodating to the Featherston regime, to the point of ceding Houston and Kentucky back to the CSA. As another AH.com user remarked in another thread, this is equivalent to France in OTL 1938 ceding Alsace-Lorraine to the Third Reich. The end result of this policy of appeasement, of course, was Featherston launching Operation Blackbeard and the CSA managing to split the US in half. The lesson likely learned by US policymakers after the war is that any territorial concessions to an enemy of the US will invite an attack. The USA will not allow for the possibility of a hostile foreign power on its southern border again.
-The Destruction. The crimes of Featherston and the Freedom Party add a moral dimension to ending the independence of the CSA. The US will also not tolerate the possibility of such a monstrous regime existing on its southern border again.
-The USA arguably since the War of Secession, and definitely since 1881-1882, has faced the specter of encirclement in North America by hostile foreign powers. While this was lessened after the FGW with the defeat and occupation of Canada, this sense of an existential threat to the territorial integrity and the independence of the USA was likely brought back into a forefront of US popular conscience by Operation Blackbeard, the Second Canadian Uprising, and yet another Mormon revolt. With the final defeat of the Canadian and Mormon rebels and the fall of the CSA, the USA, for the first time in many decades, is free of the possibility of encirclement by hostile powers. The USA will not tolerate the presence on its southern border of a potentially hostile foreign power that could ally itself with an overseas enemy of the USA.
-Since the War of Secession, the USA in TTL has lived with the shame of military defeat and the failure to preserve the Union. With the defeat of the CSA, that national shame has been brought to and end, and the USA can finally reunite, as should have occurred in the 1860s. I do not think that the USA will willingly abandon the project of reunion after the end of the SGW, especially after four North American Wars, each worse than the last.
For these reasons, and likely others, I think that the USA will proceed with a postwar policy of reunion. These are also the reasons why I think that the USA in TL-191 is highly unlikely to allow for the establishment of multiple independent states on the territory of the former CSA in lieu of annexation and reunion. I cannot imagine the post-SGW USA willingly going back to a prewar situation of facing encirclement in North America from enemies.
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The situation in Europe is still complicated and tense even after the end of the war; while France and the UK have been beaten both Germany and A-H are not in a good shape and the Hapsburg Empire even if not directly invaded has been plagued by civil strife and rebellion even before the war and frankly i expect a lot of damage by bombardment. In this scenario we have Italy as the wild card and only great power not involved in the fight and basically unscathed that will see this moment as a good occasion to press for concession or simply to extend his sphere of influence, there is Spain an official entente member but neutral during the war and will be at a desperate search of an ally for protection, plus a communist victory in the russian civil war will probably start a cascade effect of revolutionary movement in the old continent
I also think Canada will eventually be given independence even if as a puppet to the USA. America had enough trouble in TL-191 as is with Canada and it will look like child’s play compared to what will happen with the CSA as well as holding a bunch of Caribbean territories that will not want to associate with the former CSA let alone share a country with them. Something will have to give. Meanwhile, I can see the UK disposing of its monarchy and Scotland and Ireland declaring independence, leaving behind a second republic Commonwealth of England (and Wales) kind of like in TL-191.5. Since I see England as a Japan analogue for many reasons I can see them rebounding and becoming at least somewhat prosperous again. As far as Russia goes, it will depend on how much relations deteriorate between America and Germany. Germany will do everything in its power to keep Russia down despite it being so massive and if there is a strong American-German rivalry then I can see America leveraging that and having a foothold in Europe. If there isn’t a strong rivalry then I still think Russia would favor the USA over Germany or Japan since there isn’t a big threat of occupation from the USA over their Eurasian territories and they won’t be actively trying to hold Russia down either. As far as the former Entente goes, I still think France will have the worst fate of the three after being defeated by Germany THREE times here.
I don’t think the USA would allow there to be zero blacks in the South because that would essentially be letting Featherston win. Hence a black republic in Louisiana. Or alternately I can see there being more cooperation between whites and blacks in Louisiana and Arkansas (if only somewhat) since they opposed Featherston in the 1933 election. In that case they might be among the second group of former CSA states readmitted to the Union (I have Arkansas, Cuba, Louisiana, and North Carolina in this group) and many surviving blacks may head there or to Kentucky, Tennessee, or North Carolina since I headcanon them as having less involvement in the Population Reduction as I mentioned above.
Even if that weren’t the case I still think you would have plenty of black survivors since in 1860 seven of the eleven Confederate states of OTL had a 40% black population or higher and I expect similar proportions without a Great Migration ITTL. Eliminating them completely is unlikely since the demographics were very much against Confederate Whites. And while Germany IOTL had the human capital, material resources, and the time to grow very efficient with their camps and kill up to two-thirds of Europe’s Jewish population, the CSA of TTL did not. In fact, when Germany reached its height of efficiency, it was 1944 and by then the Confederates were on the defensive, very close to being defeated, or defeated outright. So time would be against the CSA trying to kill all the blacks in the South and there would still be some after the war for that reason alone and not considering the other reasons I posted. Would not be surprised if the 8-10 million death estimate is reduced when the USA of TL-191 calculates official numbers. Of course that’s my opinion.
Canada have a lower population in the US and they've extremely similar to the US so much that I say most of these Canadians youth for just become Americans in a few decades.
I give you for example why the blacks wouldn't be in the south for a much longer mate.
What if you were experienced the worst abused you ever imagine your life, all your family got butchered and you humanity is nothing more than just a parasite to your abuser eyes.
Your home that you thought were safe place is now a nightmare, an horrible reminder of what happens to you and your remaining family.
Finally someone saved you and beat the monster that cause you so much pain, now you have a choice.
Would you say to that place that give you so much trauma or moving another place to start a new life there?
That's basically what happens to the black population in the CSA after SGW
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I mean true that is what happened in Germany IOTL for a time but eventually there were Jews who did come back to Germany and it has a 6-digit Jewish population again. I have no doubt that there will be a sizable black population who returns back to the South after a while. Mostly to the states that voted against Featherston in 1933 due to higher chances of interracial cooperation (Arkansas and Louisiana) or the states where the Population Reduction was likely not as strong (Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina). They’re already in the peripheral South anyway for the most part and relatively close to the north and can leave via train or car if things get too unbearable. But in any case there’s no way the Union would let Featherston win in the long-term.
You realize that Jake targeted Louisiana first test to do his genocide against the African right? and also implies that many states black population massacred by his army of murderers.
Why I know they will be some blacks still living a CSA but wouldn't be reasonable population of them because of the horror Confederacy and the rampant terrorism / poor South compared to Germany in OTL.
The CSA might grow and prosper even in the modern day but it won't be at rich as Germany especially if they stay in the US control instead of Independence.
EDITED: if you think that the US well just rebuilt the CSA then I think you'll need to learn about this.
The US wouldn't have the Marshall plan to do anything across the Americas especially with having its own cities getting bombed and destroyed by the CSA.
They wouldn't be as funds to rebuild the South either because they need to focus their own work and they didn't have the mass funds like the Marshall plan did in OTL
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I forgot that detail. Ultimately I was basing all of this on my headcanon in an attempt to make the Population Reduction appear more realistic but I guess that’s for another thread. Sorry about that.