What if there was no Islam?

It not easy to keep Scandinavia as Pagan when Christianity is pretty expansive and organisated religion and Scandinavians weren't very unified. It is possible keep Scandinavia as Pagan longer but it probably will become Christian sooner or latter.

And Arianism had extinct long time before Islam so surviving Arianism might butterfly Islam anyway.

The push to convert northern Europe was a result of Christianity getting eaten up in the south. Without Islam, there would be far less missionaries north and probably a less powerful carolingian state, which mean that christianity wouldn't have that much prestige up north, providing less incentive to pagan rulers to convert. And yes it might just mean that it survive longer, but it could also mean that the religion could be like Hinduism and become slowly "vaccinated" against monotheism through a long but not very intrusive contact.
 
I'd actually wager that it would happen right on cue. You'd still get Norse sailors discovering Iceland, Greenland and Vinland. Basque, English, and other fishermen would probably still be in the North Atlantic (some claim they were fishing off the coasts of Canada before Columbus found the Americas for Europe).

By the late 1400s, you have European populations booming, a burgeoning middle class (no comment on how a unified Catholic Church affected negatively or positively this) who crave Eastern goods. Wether you have something like what happened with the Ottomans or not occurring, you still have to reckon that European kingdoms are going to want to find their own way around TTL's Venice and Genoa analogues (or maybe not analogues) and then get a leg up on everyone else. Once the western continents are found, conquest may not be inevitable, but settlement almost is when you just look at the numbers. Too many Europeans, not enough land available.

Dunno.
There are eight-odd centuries of divergences here. European kingdoms will be a lot different. The Norse age will be different too, although I concede that them reaching Iceland and sailing further is still likely. Hell, you might have a successful *Vinland ITTL.
Or maybe Visigothic Spain starts a sequence of development that makes it stumble on the Caribbean in 850 AD (although I consider this wildly unlikely). Or you get some African kingdom doing successfully what Mali may have tried IOTL and expand into South America. Although, again, the premises of the POD don't make it particularly likely.
No Islam means a completely different pattern of development for Western Europe. Probably less trade, very probably no Carolingian Empire, quite possibly far less access to Eastern goods.
Islam created big interchange between "East" and "West", both intellectually and commercially (including intorduction of crops and agricultural techniques; they could spread anyway, but probably more slowly). While some interchange will almost surely occur regardless, it may be less sustained, or start later.
The demographics of Europe (esp. regarding development of city life) will be changed accordingly.
 
What I wonder is if Islam never was, what would happen to the Arabian Peninsula religiously speaking? Which group would become dominant?

Possibly some unorthodox form of Christianity, the Oriental Orthodoxy (Monophysism) being the better placed geographically but definitely not the only possibility. Judaism appears to have had a significant presence as well, and might have taken a bigger role (unless one takes Islam as being basically just an Arab form of Judaism, which the strong thesis of Crone's and Cook's "Hagarism" - a thesis that they both don't seem to have been supporting for some decades).
Other possibilities include Mazdaism or some other Abrahamic prophetic faith (there are indications that Muhammad wasn't the only Arab Prophet claiming to have a message from the God of Abraham in that rough timeframe; this among other things points to significant religious upheaval in Arabia around 600 AD).
The path of least resistance would be something stemming from the Judeo-Christian tradition, and, in that case, I would argue that some resemblances to OTL's (early) Islam are likely. A pity that, with the exception of the Qur'an, we have relatively few sources about really ealry Islam (a problem shared by Christianity more or less).
 
Honestly, I always liked Turtledove's scenario of Muhammed winding up as a Christian saint. He talked to Christians and was clearly intrigued by what he heard. Its not a stretch to imagine him converting. Who knows, maybe he founds his own quirky "local flavored" sect of Christianity and things resemble OTL closer than you'd think...
 
How about the Ka'aba?

Already existed prior to Muhammad: I believe there were lots of Ka'abas around contemporary Arabia.

I've summarised my views before, but I'll do it again, because Late Antiquity.

The Arabs are going to end up with some form of monotheistic religion, I think this can be taken as a given. The most likely option is some form of Christianity, probably Monophysitism, but Chalcedonian Orthodoxy or even Nestorianism are not out of the question, and of course a home-grown Arab Christian sect could arise. Judaism is not impossible, but pretty unlikely IMO. And there's also a good chance of some sort of ATL Islam arising, blending Judeo-Christian and native Arabic elements.

Outside of Arabia, Roman rule of the Eastern Mediterranean likely remains intact. Doctrinal wrangling and bickering will undoubtedly continue between the Chalcedonians and non-Chalcedonians, but I imagine the position will gradually drift towards an anti-Chalcedonian one, as that's the direction Emperors like Justinian and Heraclius tended to be pulled in. Needless to say, this won't go down well with the staunchly Chalcedonian West, so I foresee trouble in Africa and Italy as the seventh and eighth centuries progress. Without the ongoing war with Islam, Constantinople's energies will likely be devoted to sorting out the mess that is the Balkans, as well as continued grappling with Iran.

I'm no expert on the Sasanians, but I believe it's certainly possible that they could be toppled anyway even without Islam. The succeeding regime will remain Iranian and Zoroastrian, though, so will be far less of a break with the continuity of the past. That said, I don't think it's tremendously unlikely that Christianity could take hold in Iran and slowly expunge Zoroastrianism, as it had already done IOTL in Mesopotamia by the time of the coming of Islam. If the Iranians end up officially adopting Nestorianism (by far the strongest sect) then that could actually help with Roman religious issues: Chalcedonians and non-Chalcedonians alike hated Nestorians.
 
How about the Ka'aba?

It's hard to understand what the Ka'ba was before Muhammad. A shrine of sorts, most probably, but not necessarily already a Pan-Arabic one. Islamic sources describe it as such of course, but they can be highly suspected of pious back-projection, to the point that some modern (Western) scholars have gone as far as denying that a pre-Islamic shrine in present-day Ka'ba even existed. While this sounds quite extreme (I don't find the evidence brought for such a claim very compelling) without Islam the sanctuary might not to rise to any major prominence outside Central-Western Arabia. It might still end up associated to Abraham or Ismael though (and it's not unreasonable to suppose that it could have been in pre-Islamic times, although there's no clear-cut hard evidence I know of either way).
 
I think it's probably easier to imagine what won't change or only obviously:

1) The Franks will be the major power of Western Europe. Elimination of the Visigoths and the ransacking of Aquitaine certainly helped, but they'll still control the richest part of France even in this TL.

This means, IMO, that Bavaria/Saxony/England/Lombardia will inevitably remain on similar trajectories; Christian/Catholic regions. The question is if they will actually be united as historical - I can certainly see massively different realms, but the weight of Frankish influence will keep much the same.

Likewise, Spain will probably be Christian/Catholic. It might fall apart, it might remain a united realm, but Frankish Catholicism is a likely thing.


I suspect, even, that very soon after the POD the Franks will come to temporarily rule much of their neighbourhood, but it's tricky where and what; Lombardia seems likely, as the Pope will want them there, but picking between Saxony (poor, but close to the ancient Frankish lands) and Spain (richer, but across the half-independent Aquitainian/Occitanian lands) will be harder. Eventually, it'll all shatter again anyway.

2) Byzantium will dominate the Russians. The Black Sea won't move, and I hardly think Byzantium will lose Anatolia or Constantinople, so whatever invaders or locals live west of the great Steppes will be Orthodox, most likely. The Norse aren't strong enough to win, and the Catholics (if they're even different enough to inspire conflict) need the long way round to get to Russia.

I also expect this will have an effect on the nearby Steppe, so most lands west of the Ural will eventually become Christian in the Greek-Russian style.

3) Whoever controls trade between Asia and Europe will tax it up the wazoo. So if/when naval capabilities allow it, someone will try a route around Africa, and probably find America (if noone does it sooner).
 
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