What if the Wehrmacht coup of 1938 had gone ahead?
- Thread starter FalconHonour
- Start date
I have always thought that once Germany and Austria were united that Czechoslovakia would drift into the Germany economic orbit. It looks like half of their borders were with Germany. The Czech had border disputes with Poland and Hungary.
If there is a successful coup, maybe the new German government would offer to reduce tariffs and encourage cross border investments? Then slowly over time the volume of trade increases and there more economic ties. Also Germany offers to support the Czech in any border disputes with Poland and Hungary.
If there is a successful coup, maybe the new German government would offer to reduce tariffs and encourage cross border investments? Then slowly over time the volume of trade increases and there more economic ties. Also Germany offers to support the Czech in any border disputes with Poland and Hungary.
Deleted member 94680
Somewhat tainted by his role in the installation of Hitler as Chancellor. Remember in ‘38, he hadn’t really fallen out of favour yet.
Also, unlikely to be a completely popular choice with the Americans...
You are probably correct. It just seemed someone with a background in international affairs could buttress the heer.
longsword14
Banned
von Papen is also known to be rather dim. It is a miracle he managed to get where he did.
It fails, badly, as the Army joins the Nazis in purging the "traitors".
No, it was not. The idea that there was some great swell of anti-Hitler sentiment in the army is entirely the product of Wehrmacht apologia more then objective history. The coup plotters were in reality quite isolated and enjoyed practically no support. When they tried to persuade others throughout July and August, they were met with stony silence. One of them, the Chief of the General Staff, resigned penning the prophetic words, "I wish, as Chief of the General Staff, to make it a matter of record that I have refused to approve any kind of National Socialist adventure. A final German victory is impossible." He hoped his resignation would inspire mass resignations among the other Generals. Not a single one of them followed him. Hitler even managed to get Beck not to publicize his resignation for "national security reasons," which removed any effect the act might have had on the wider German population.
In 11th hour before the invasion of Czechoslovakia, the German generals were marching happily into annihilation behind their Fuhrer.
No, it was not. The idea that there was some great swell of anti-Hitler sentiment in the army is entirely the product of Wehrmacht apologia more then objective history. The coup plotters were in reality quite isolated and enjoyed practically no support. When they tried to persuade others throughout July and August, they were met with stony silence. One of them, the Chief of the General Staff, resigned penning the prophetic words, "I wish, as Chief of the General Staff, to make it a matter of record that I have refused to approve any kind of National Socialist adventure. A final German victory is impossible." He hoped his resignation would inspire mass resignations among the other Generals. Not a single one of them followed him. Hitler even managed to get Beck not to publicize his resignation for "national security reasons," which removed any effect the act might have had on the wider German population.
In 11th hour before the invasion of Czechoslovakia, the German generals were marching happily into annihilation behind their Fuhrer.
Deleted member 94680
Well, you’re the new German government and you know the British and the French will be wary of extending diplomatic recognition. Having a Great Power in your corner that’s a possible diplomatic ally would be a boon. Choosing a Chancellor that is best known in America as “the man that tried to get Mexico to invade” is queering the pitch somewhat.
What I’m saying is, Von Papen isn’t exactly the only option and he’s a tainted choice. Someone else - anyone else - would probably be a better choice.
Sorry for the silence, I have been so busy over the past couple of days. But I would like to say that it is fascinating hearing all the various theories as to what might have happened. Keep them coming if you are so inclined!
Friedrich Wilhelm Heinz. He was a Freikorps veteran and apparently despised Hitler. He spent the rest of the period in unnoticed obscurity.
There is a very good book on what was about to go down in 1938, not written by a former Wehrmacht office, either: The Oster Conspiracy of 1938.
The SIS had an informant high in the financial services of the Reich, the above-mentioned Carl Friedrich Goerdler, Claude Dansey's "Agent X". Goerdler knew how broke the Reich was. He told Dansey, who told C, "Quex" Sinclair, who had the information for Chamberlain. So Chamberlain could have known -- and he still chose appeasement.
Deleted member 94680
Interesting. Thanks for the info.
“In December 1938, Goerdeler again visited Britain, where he alienated those British civil servants he met by his extreme German nationalist language, together with demands that the British support the return of Danzig, the Polish Corridor and the former German colonies in Africa, plus making a huge loan to a post-Nazi government. Goerdeler asked Frank Ashton-Gwatkin of the Foreign Office to ensure that Britain gave a post-Nazi government an interest-free loan of £500 million in exchange for which Goerdeler would end protectionism, end the efforts to place the Balkans into the German sphere of influence, and support Britain in the Mediterranean against Italy and in the Far East against Japan. In addition, the fact that Goerdeler was exaggerating the extent of anti-Nazi feeling in Germany, and his inability to organise a putsch, were becoming increasing clear to the British. Sir Alexander Cadogan wrote about Goerdeler's offer "We are to deliver the goods and Germany gives I.O.Us".” Wiki page on Goerdeler
It’s somewhat of an exaggeration to describe Goerdeler as an informant when he was simply walking in to meetings with British civil servants. But suffice to say, in 1938, he was what you would call an unreliable witness.
Here is one of those "meetings with British civil servants". The messages are collected in The "X" Documents.
Hitler is not going to survive. Two truck loads of guys with submachine guns are definitely beating Hitler's four bodyguards who only had pistols.
But can they take over the government ?
Hermann Goering is still Hitler's official successor. Hermann Goering was no angel but he was a little more rational than Hitler and did not want to get into a war, for a few years at least.
But can they take over the government ?
Hermann Goering is still Hitler's official successor. Hermann Goering was no angel but he was a little more rational than Hitler and did not want to get into a war, for a few years at least.
Iirc, Chamberlain compared anti-Hitler Germans to Jacobite exiles at the French court, continually telling King Louis that if only he'd land a French army in England people would rise up as one man for the rightful king. He doubted if they really represented anyone but themselves.
I was particularly intrigued by the bit at the top of Page 11, where it is proposed that our ultimatum to Hitler be accompanied by assurances that we would still negotiate about Germany's "life problems" including "Central Europe".
Does that mean that after having (supposedly) brought Hitler down by an ultimatum over the Sudetenland question, we should then hand over the Sudetenland after all, to the new German government? If so, and given the high degree of uncertainty about the chances of such a coup succeeding in the first place, I'm not overly surprised that Chamberlain didn't bite.
Capturing Goering should be one of the priorities.
If he gets away, he could become a big problem.
He might have been the official successor as party leader, but it doesn't really work like that for the office of chancellor or head of state ( not called Reichspräsident any more since 1934)
So for a TL, I'd have Goering warned, he hope into a car and escapes to Leipzig.
If he does not have the army, he can fight with the party organisations.
And by establishing as much legimitacy as possible.
So according to the constitution (raped but still in place) Erwin Bumke, President of the Imperial Court now holds the powers of the head of state.
( That's in Leipzig)
Goering needs to secure him, and be appointed chancellor.
Go on the radio and demounce the military junta as traitors.
Maybe even be bold enough to call for presidential elections within a month.
For the state officials, that's a claim to power they can't ignore.
elkarlo
Banned
Yeah. This. the military probably wouldn't enjoy a lot of support. They also if victorious would instate some sort of military rule. Some magical happy version of some peaceful and quick transition to democracy is a pipe dream imho
The coupists would know how dangerous Göring is - he's very smart, charismatic and a war hero, he'd be able to command enough loyalty to end a coup if he's not taken out quickly enough. Thus he'd be among the priority targets of the coup.
Deleted member 94680
At no point did any of the military figures involved in anti-Nazi activities (Halder, Oster, von Staffenberg, etc.) propose a military government AFAIK. They all had civilians in mind for the various governments they had in mind.
Deleted member 94680
President of the Reichstag, Minister President of Prussia and Head of the Luftwaffe with his own private Army? Yeah, he'd be a considerable threat to the coup succeeding.