What if the WAllies invaded Crete and Greece instead of Sicily and Italy in 1943?

If the Allies did this the following countries in east-central Europe would be communist

  • Poland

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Poland & Czechoslovakia

    Votes: 2 7.1%
  • Poland & Romania

    Votes: 2 7.1%
  • Poland & Czechoslovakia & Romania & Hungary

    Votes: 13 46.4%
  • Poland, Czech, Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia

    Votes: 1 3.6%
  • Pol, Cze, Rom, Yugo, Hungary & Albania

    Votes: 1 3.6%
  • Pol, Cze, Rom, Yugo, Hung, Alb & Bulgaria (OTL)

    Votes: 2 7.1%
  • Poland, Greece and every country between

    Votes: 1 3.6%
  • A combination not given above (Germany & SU not in consideration)

    Votes: 6 21.4%

  • Total voters
    28
If the terrain is so bad one wonders what cosmic ju ju was used by the Germans to conquer it so easily in 1941?

Because the opponent of the Germans was a Greek army already weaken by fighting with the Italians and the Germans was going from the mountains to the sea side. The Greek army was caught out of position and German logisitic improved as the German move closer to greek coast and enjoyed local air and sea superiority.
 
I know I've been mentioning these unorthodox Scandinavia and Balkan approaches for the Western Allies, which is showing the geographic-logistical difficulty of doing either, but I wonder, if Italy somehow stayed neutral might Britain be possibly *forced* into doing something in Scandinavia or Greece by 1943 because they other two alternatives, a) an early invasion of France or b) not engaging in land battles with Germans at all. Britain and the US may find those opposite extremes too dangerous or unacceptable, ...

Now and then theres a thread on the Scandinavian alternative. The most intriguing proposal I've seen is in late 1941 building on the RAF air mission established in the northern region. I don't know what the Brits might actually accomplish on the ground there, but they were good at operating inside the heads of the German leaders. RAF & ground forces poking about on the arctic front could lead to more Germans in anti invasion defenses on the long Norwegian coast.
 
Because the opponent of the Germans was a Greek army already weaken by fighting with the Italians ...

Exactly

They were largely fresh conscripts, mostly called up after the war with Italy started. Inadaquate trained cadres that included the oldest reservists. In any case there were far to few for the front defended. The Germans war machine was at its best beating up on half trained new conscripts and newly mobilized reservists with inadequate equipment. The right wing of the Greek army defending the Macidonian/Thrace frontier matched that description and more.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Did you see this proposal from another thread here, or from archival research, or books or articles?

I ask because I did some research for a paper in the national archives, the COSSAC (Chief of Staff Supreme Allied Command) files.

I reviewed the op plan (short single page form) for the Fortitude North Deception plan.

I also saw the order for Jupiter, dated only as early in 1942, focused on northernmost Norway, with intent to also effect Sweden and Finland's position in the war.

But I also saw two plans I had never seen referenced in any prior books or journal articles, "Atlantis", and "Dynamite."

Atlantis from 1944 (or possibly late 43) was a real contingency OPLAN involving invasion of central and southern Norway, with planned exploitation into Denmark. I think it was meant as a potential alternative in case Overlord had to be cancelled or failed.

So this was broader in even initial scope than Jupiter. It resembled Fortitude North written as a real plan.

Even more obscure was DYNAMITE from 1941. It had less text and a sparser outline than any of the other plans, but had a map illustrating invasion arrows towards southern and central Norway rather than the north.
 
Been in the back of my mind since I first read about the RAF mission in the northern region. Cant remember the name for that one at the moment. I remember first reading about it in the 1970s. Its come up in occasional conversations, here on the Alt Hist Forum very recently. Usually the Norway or Scandinavian campaign conversations take place in the context of starting in 1943 or maybe 1944. Starting from the Northern USSR in late 1941 or 1942 seems very rare.

If you you still have details for ATLANTIS, JUPITER, & DYNAMITE it would be very interesting to see them here. Jupiter I was aware of as part of the FORTITUDE NORTH, but the other two I cant recall at all.
 

elkarlo

Banned
The unintended consequences especially in with how the communists are treated, are great.
Plus if the Wallies big down in the Balkans, then maybe the axis do better on the EF, preventing a disaster at Kursk and perhaps salvaging some mobile reserves.which could allow for the rivers to be held possibly until the WAllies break through in France or where ever.
More distrust of the communists, which was more than justified might make it harder to treat them as a true ally. They might also not pish as hard to beat the Germans, as they'd feel they were doing all the heavy lifting
This might result in a defecto ceasefire on the EF until the Wallies get something done on their own
 

elkarlo

Banned
Exactly

They were largely fresh conscripts, mostly called up after the war with Italy started. Inadaquate trained cadres that included the oldest reservists. In any case there were far to few for the front defended. The Germans war machine was at its best beating up on half trained new conscripts and newly mobilized reservists with inadequate equipment. The right wing of the Greek army defending the Macidonian/Thrace frontier matched that description and more.
Yes the Greeks were out of position and had a very large front to cover.
Also I wonder how much the war with Italy stretched the resources of Greece? How many transports were left to spare ? How many planes were worn out? How many artillery shells were left in Stock? Ammo too? Night make it hard to defend without apple supplies and troops
 
Why not do the exact opposite? Say: Forgo Italy by going the Sicily-Sardina-Corsica-Actually Making Dragoon and Overlord simultaneous ops? Would that be enough to change the Race for Berlin?
 
Why not do the exact opposite? Say: Forgo Italy by going the Sicily-Sardina-Corsica-Actually Making Dragoon and Overlord simultaneous ops? Would that be enough to change the Race for Berlin?

The reason why Overlord and Dragoon weren't simulaneous was because a lack of landing craft. Maybe the allies move up the operations if you avoid mainland Italy, but they would still be going up against the same Wehrmacht units.

Bigger issue; it's hard to tell what happens with Badoglio if the WAllies don't invade Italy. Afterall, the original plan was for the 82nd Airborne to land in Rome and take the city with the help of Italian forces as soon as the surrender was announced. Unless, you find a way for the Italians to resist Unternehmen Achsen, I don't see much change in length of the war, in this regard. Worse case senario, Badoglio doesn't get a chance to surrender and the Germans bring back Mussolini, keeping the Italians in the Axis!

Maybe, a best case scenario for an early Dragoon-like landing is where the Italians surrender Nice and the French-Italian border fortifications providing for a good lodgement until Overlord allows for a breakout opertunity in France and all the while creeping eastward along the Po Valley. About the only thing something like this saves you is an amphibius operation.
 
Why not do the exact opposite? Say: Forgo Italy by going the Sicily-Sardina-Corsica-Actually Making Dragoon and Overlord simultaneous ops? Would that be enough to change the Race for Berlin?

Corsica/Sardinia were necessary for proper air participation in a S France invasion. They also allowed larger air operations vs northern Italian industry.
 
Yes the Greeks were out of position and had a very large front to cover.
Also I wonder how much the war with Italy stretched the resources of Greece? How many transports were left to spare ? How many planes were worn out? How many artillery shells were left in Stock? Ammo too? Night make it hard to defend without apple supplies and troops

The Greeks badly needed material on most accounts you mention. They did have good morale and a adaquate cargo fleet.
 
One point not mentioned is that Stalin in particular and the US wanted a second Front. Italy was a consolation prize. Besides as people have said that Greece would be a hard fight and it would give the allies little.

I doubt either would be satisfied with Greece.
 

Geon

Donor
Some things to note here from what I've read thus far.

It sounds like if the Allies go for an invasion of Crete and then Greece they are letting themselves in for a worse bloodbath then what happened when they invaded Italy in OTL.

Some things that have not been discussed thus far...Mussolini ended up falling from power after Sicily was invaded. If Crete and Greece are invaded there is more of a chance for him to hold onto power into 1944. How does this affect the war?

Also, what would be DeGaulle's take on an allied invasion of the Balkans? For him this does nothing to help France be liberated. And if as some suspect here Overlord is cancelled or delayed that would also not be acceptable from DeGaulle's perspective.
 
lAso, what would be DeGaulle's take on an allied invasion of the Balkans? For him this does nothing to help France be liberated. And if as some suspect here Overlord is cancelled or delayed that would also not be acceptable from DeGaulle's perspective.

De Gaulle wasn't really a factor until 1944. In the Casablanca Conference where plans were made for the second half of 1943, he and rival Girard attended, but were little more than window dressing. The French colonial troops would be quite happy killing Germans and Italians wherever they were sent.

About, Italy, with Mussolini back, it's done going on the offense, but the Germans have to invest a lot less in propping it up and maybe motivated enough to put up a fight in it's occupied areas. This probably amounts to another German army in France, plus a corp of Italians in the south on occupation duty. Maybe, the WAllies don't make it to the Rhine for another 6 months.
 
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Getting established in Greece isn't the issue.

Finally, Italy - or more precisely Corsica and Sardiania - is useful as an airbase for invading Southern France, which helps the main invasion of Northern France. Quite a lot of the supplies for Overlord ended up coming through Toulon and Marseilles, and a Balkans invasion means Anvil doesnt happen, and that means no secondary supply route after the breakout.


that's very true; Anvil was a brilliant politico-strategic move - kept the british happy and yet opened up broad logistic support to French front.

it is also hard to think how a 1943 Balkans invasion (Greece and beyond) could be logistically managed - first establishing at least parity in the air (axis has interior lines of communication) and second (since Italy is still an axis nation) how to reliably supply without having to go around Africa and through Suez adding tremendous more strain to shipping another 10k miles

everybody wants to *win* (do better than Yalta) without 2 million Wally casualties; but Red Army was unstoppable after Kursk. Slow, but unstoppable.
 

elkarlo

Banned
The Greeks badly needed material on most accounts you mention. They did have good morale and a adaquate cargo fleet.
The Greeks do like shipping , even now it seems.
But Greece wasn't by any means a first rate nation, so it was unreasonable to think it could even handle Italy on its own. It did, but that was due to Italy being terrible.
I think just Bulgaria invading would have tipped the war enough to make Greece lose
 
The Italians were getting their act together. They'd probably have forced their terms on the Greek state and returned peace to the Bakans. We have to remember that conquest was not Mussolinis objective here. Just a list of concessions designed to prove he was the man & the Greeks not. Subjugation came with German intervention, and was part of Hitlers objective to 'secure' the Balkans against further British perfidy.

There is a smaller chance the Italians fail further absent German intervention. Lets assume Hitler whimsically does not support them. Tripoli is lost, the Italian army in Albania is driven into a coastal lodgment or collapses entirely, & Mussolini is asked to resign by the Fascist Grand Council. The pro British in Yugoslavia are left isolated as OTL and eventually sidelined.
 
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